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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<title>Maskelerin Multiplikatif (Çoğaltıcı) Gücü</title>
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<meta name="description" content="Maskelerin COVID-19'u Nasıl Sonlandırabileceğine İlişkin Etkileşimli Makale">
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<meta property="og:description" content="Kısmen etkili maskeler bile, yeterli sayıda insan o maskeleri taktığı sürece COVID-19'un yayılmasını durdurabilir." />
</head>
<body>
<div id="root" class="page">
<div class="header">
<p5 src="js/sketch0.js"></p5>
<div class="overlay">
<div>
<h1>Maskelerin Multiplikatif (Çoğaltıcı) Gücü</h1>
<h3>Maskelerin COVID-19'u Nasıl Sonlandırabileceğine İlişkin Etkileşimli Makale</h3>
<h4><a href="https://aatishb.com/">Aatish Bhatia</a> ve <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/minutephysics">Minute Physics</a> tarafından oluşturulmuştur.</h4>
<translation :list="translations"></translation>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
Maskelerin COVID-19'un yayılmasını yavaşlatmada çok büyük bir <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422">etkisi</a> <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422">olduğunu</a> <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1">biliyoruz</a>. Yine de bazı insanlar maske takmaya karşı çıkıyorlar çünkü bunu bir halk sağlığı sorunu olmaktan çok kişisel bir tercih olarak görüyorlar.
</p>
<p>
Bu kişiler büyük resmi kaçırıyor çünkü <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-06067-8"> maskeler kullanıcıyı <i>ve</i> etrafındaki insanları koruyor</a>. <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e8126f89327941b9453eeef/t/5ea3b5859bc8f31a11f3deb5/1587787141808/2020-04-24_N95DECON_Face_Mask_Technical_Report_v1_final.pdf">Bu iki yönlü koruma</a>, yüksek oranda maske takmayı bir salgını bitirmek için güçlü bir yol haline getirir.
</p>
<network :maskusage="0.6"></network>
<p>
Maskelerin kullanımı üzerinde matematik yaparak, insanların %60'ının %60 etkili maske taktığında, hastalık bulaşmasının nasıl %60'a kadar düştüğünü göreceğiz - bu oran kabaca COVID-19'un yayılmasını durdurmak için gereken miktardır.
</p>
<aside>
<div class="center">
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Y47t9qLc9I4" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
<span style="margin-top: 0.75rem;">
Destekleyici videoyu izleyin: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4">Maskeler Neden Düşündüğünüzden Daha İyi Çalışır?</a>
</span>
</div>
</aside>
<h2>Söyleyin, Etrafa Saçmayın.</h2>
<p>
Ama önce, bazı sayısal veriler hakkında fikir edinelim. Bir kişi nefes verdiğinde, çeşitli küçük boyutlarda <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f57LXUbrtPU"> tükürük parçacıkları püskürtür</a>. Eğer bulaşıcılarsa, bu "ağız spreyi" viral partiküllerle yüklüdür. Bu <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.10988.pdf">virüs yüklü tükürük spreyi</a>, COVID-19'un yayılmasının ana yoludur.
</p>
<p>Bulaşıcı bir kişi nefes aldığında, her dakika yaklaşık <b>bine yakın</b> viral partikül püskürtür.</p>
<p>Bu kişiler Konuştuklarında her dakika yaklaşık <b>on bin</b> viral partikül püskürtürler.</p>
<p>Öksürdüklerinde ise <b>yüz binlerde</b> viral partikül püskürtürler.</p>
<p>Hapşırdıklarında ise neredeyse <b> bir milyon</b> viral partikül püskürtürler.</p>
<p>
Viral partiküller kişiden kişiye ne kadar çok seyahat ederse, enfeksiyon şansı o kadar yüksek olur.
(Ve eğer enfekte olursa, daha fazla viral partiküle maruz kalan insanlar genellikle <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-transmission-dose.html">daha şiddetli semptomlar</a> yaşarlar.)
</p>
</div>
<anim-with-caption :mask1="false" :mask2="false" contagiousperson="Contagious Person" susceptibleperson="Susceptible Person"><span class="red">Transmission Route 1:</span> When a contagious person is near a susceptible person, their 'mouth spray' can spread disease.</anim-with-caption>
<div class="container">
<p>Masks reduce the mouth spray traveling between people — by blocking or by redirecting the spray — thereby reducing the chance of infection.</p>
<p>
It's worth keeping in mind that no mask is perfect.
Even the N95 masks recommended for health workers are only guaranteed to block <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAdanPfQdCA">95% of the hardest-to-block particles</a> (and that’s only if you <a href="https://www.n95decon.org/publications">wear them correctly</a>).
</p>
<p>
Masks don't guarantee safety, they reduce risk.
This is a lot like how an umbrella doesn't guarantee that you'll stay dry, but it does reduce your chance of getting wet.
Like umbrellas, masks only work if you use them correctly.
But unlike umbrellas, which only protect people who use them, masks also protect people <i>around</i> the wearer.
</p>
<p>
</p>
<h2>Why Masks Protect Us Twice</h2>
<p>
Let’s imagine that a contagious person wears a 50 percent effective mask.
By '50 percent effective', I mean that wearing this mask cuts in half the chance that they'll infect a nearby susceptible person.
</p>
</div>
<anim-with-caption :mask1="true" :mask2="false" :eout="0.5" contagiousperson="Contagious Person" susceptibleperson="Susceptible Person"><span class="orange">Transmission Route 2:</span> When the contagious person wears a 50% effective mask, disease transmission drops by 50%.</anim-with-caption>
<div class="container">
<p>But what if the susceptible person wears the mask instead?</p>
<p>
In general, the effectiveness of a mask depends on whether you’re <b>inhaling</b> or <b>exhaling</b> through it.
For now, let’s keep things simple and assume that this mask is equally effective in either direction.
</p>
<p>In that case, the chance of infection in this route also drops by 50%.</p>
</div>
<anim-with-caption :mask1="false" :mask2="true" :ein="0.5" contagiousperson="Contagious Person" susceptibleperson="Susceptible Person"><span class="orange">Transmission Route 3:</span> When the susceptible person wears a 50% effective mask, disease transmission drops by 50%.</anim-with-caption>
<div class="container">
<p>What if both the contagious <i>and</i> the susceptible person wear a mask?</p>
<p>
Well, the first mask cuts the chance of infection in half, and the second mask once again cuts the chance of infection in half.
So when <i>both</i> people wear masks, the chance of infection is half of half, i.e. 25% (as compared to when neither wear masks).
That's a 75% drop in the chance of infection.
</p>
</div>
<anim-with-caption :mask1="true" :mask2="true" :eout="0.5" :ein="0.5" contagiousperson="Contagious Person" susceptibleperson="Susceptible Person"><span class="yellow">Transmission Route 4:</span> When both people wear 50% effective masks, disease transmission drops by 75%.</anim-with-caption>
<div class="container">
<p>
If you think about it, it's surprising that a 50% effective mask can reduce the risk of infection by 75%.
This is possible because when both people wear masks, the chance of infection is halved twice.
This <b>double protection</b> makes masks much more effective than you might intuitively expect.
</p>
<p>So here are all four routes through which an airborne disease can spread from person to person.</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="graphic-container">
<div class="row big-small">
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Disease Transmission Route</div>
<anim :mask1="false" :mask2="false"></anim>
<anim :mask1="true" :mask2="false" :eout="0.5"></anim>
<anim :mask1="false" :mask2="true" :ein="0.5"></anim>
<anim :mask1="true" :mask2="true" :eout="0.5" :ein="0.5"></anim>
</div>
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Drop in Disease Transmission</div>
<div class="center"><span class="red">0%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span class="orange">50%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span class="orange">50%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span class="yellow">75%</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="caption">
The four ways that COVID-19 can spread from person to person. This assumes a 50% effective mask.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<h2>From People to The Population</h2>
<p>
So far, we've only looked at disease transmission between two people.
How do we go from here to understanding disease transmission in the <i>entire population</i>?
</p>
<p>Well, in the extreme limits, this is straightforward.</p>
<p>
For example, if <b>nobody</b> wore a mask, then whenever two people meet, the chance that <span class="red">neither wear a mask</span> is 100%.
</p>
<network :maskusage="0"></network>
<p>
So we'd only have to consider the <span class="red">first route</span> of disease transmission, and the population would see <span class="red">no drop</span> in disease transmission.
</p>
<p>
At the other extreme, if <b>everyone</b> wore a mask, then whenever two people meet, the chance that they <span class="yellow">both wear masks</span> is 100%.
</p>
<network :maskusage="1"></network>
<p>
In this case, we’d only have to consider the <span class="yellow">last route</span> of disease transmission.
Assuming masks are 50% effective in each direction, the population would see a <span class="yellow">75% drop</span> in disease transmission.
</p>
<p>
So when <i>everyone</i> wears a mask (or when <i>no one</i> wears one), it's straightforward to calculate the drop in disease transmission in the population, because there's only one route involved.
</p>
<p>
But in reality, some people wear masks and others don’t.
Which means the virus can spread through a mix of all four routes.
How likely each route is will depend on how many people wear masks.
</p>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Usage: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(pnetwork)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="pnetwork" :min="0" :max="1" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<network :maskusage="pnetwork"></network>
<p>
For example, <b>if 50% of people wear masks</b>, then whenever two people meet at random, the chance that <span class="yellow">both people wear masks</span> is 50% ⨉ 50%, i.e. 25%.
Similarly, you can work out the chance of the other three disease transmission routes.
</p>
<p>
When exactly half the population wears masks, it turns out that each route is equally likely.
(Can you convince yourself why this has to be true?)
</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="graphic-container">
<div class="row big-small-small">
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Disease Transmission Route</div>
<anim :mask1="false" :mask2="false"></anim>
<anim :mask1="true" :mask2="false" :eout="0.5"></anim>
<anim :mask1="false" :mask2="true" :ein="0.5"></anim>
<anim :mask1="true" :mask2="true" :eout="0.5" :ein="0.5"></anim>
</div>
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Drop in Disease Transmission</div>
<div class="center"><span class="red">0%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span class="orange">50%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span class="orange">50%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span class="yellow">75%</span></div>
</div>
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Chance of This Route</div>
<div class="center">25%</div>
<div class="center">25%</div>
<div class="center">25%</div>
<div class="center">25%</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="caption">
The four ways that COVID-19 can spread from person to person, assuming that 50% of people wear a 50% effective mask.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
We can now calculate the <b>average drop in disease transmission in the population</b>.
Since we’ve set things up so that each route is equally likely, this is just the average of <span class="red">0%</span>, <span class="orange">50%</span>, <span class="orange">50%</span> and <span class="yellow">75%</span>, which is 43.75%.
</p>
<p>
People who <i>don’t</i> wear masks get infected via the first two routes, which are equally likely when half the population wears a mask.
So the drop in disease transmission to non-mask wearers is the average of <span class="red">0%</span> and <span class="orange">50%</span>, which is 25%.
</p>
<p>
Meanwhile, people who <i>do</i> wear masks get infected via the last two routes.
So the drop in disease transmission to mask-wearers is the average of <span class="orange">50%</span> and <span class="yellow">75%</span>, which is 62.5%.
</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="graphic-container">
<div class="column">
<div class="splash">Average Drop in Disease Transmission = <span style="font-size: 2rem;"><b>43.75</b></span>%</div>
<div class="splash">Drop in Disease Transmission to <b>Non-Mask Wearers</b> = 25%</div>
<div class="splash">Drop in Disease Transmission to <b>Mask-Wearers</b> = 62.5%</div>
</div>
<div class="caption">
(Assuming 50% of people wear a 50% effective mask.)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
So even non-mask wearers get a modest benefit, because the air they inhale is often mediated by <i>other people’s</i> masks.
But mask-wearers benefit much more, thanks to the added protection their masks provide.
</p>
<p>And since the population consists of both mask-wearers and non-mask wearers, the average benefit lies in between the benefit to these two groups.</p>
<p>So in this simplified example (where 50% of people wear 50% effective masks) we’ve worked out how to go from the <b>benefit that masks offer an <i>individual</i></b> to the <b>average benefit that masks offer a <i>population</i>.</b></p>
<h2>Maskology</h2>
<p>
Let's <a href="https://github.com/aatishb/maskmath/blob/master/model/mathmodel.ipynb">apply this logic</a> to <i>any values</i> of <b>mask usage</b> and <b>mask effectiveness</b>.
Vary the sliders below to see how masks moderate the spread of disease.
</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="graphic-container">
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Usage: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(p)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="p" :min="0" :max="1" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Effectiveness on Exhale: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(eout)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="eout" :min="0" :max="0.99" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Effectiveness on Inhale: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(ein)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="ein" :min="0" :max="0.99" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<div class="row big-small-small padabove">
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Disease Transmission Route</div>
<anim :mask1="false" :mask2="false"></anim>
<anim :mask1="true" :mask2="false" :eout="eout"></anim>
<anim :mask1="false" :mask2="true" :ein="ein"></anim>
<anim :mask1="true" :mask2="true" :eout="eout" :ein="ein"></anim>
</div>
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Drop in Disease Transmission</div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(d1)}}</span>%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(d2)}}</span>%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(d3)}}</span>%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(d4)}}</span>%</span></div>
</div>
<div class="column onehundredpx">
<div class="center">Chance of This Route</div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(l1)}}</span>%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(l2)}}</span>%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(l3)}}</span>%</span></div>
<div class="center"><span><span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(l4)}}</span>%</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="row half bigsplash">
<span>Average Drop in Disease Transmission: <span class="dotted" style="font-size: 2rem;"><b>{{convertToPercent(1 - (1 - ein * p) * (1 - eout * p))}}</b></span>%</span>
</div>
<div class="row half bigsplash">
<span>Drop in Disease Transmission to Non-Mask Wearers: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(eout * p)}}</span>%</span>
</div>
<div class="row half bigsplash">
<span>Drop in Disease Transmission to Mask-Wearers: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(1 - (1 - eout * p) * (1 - ein))}}</span>%</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
What happens to disease transmission if 60% of people wear a 60% effective mask?
Or 90% wear a 50% effective mask?
Or 50% wear a 90% effective mask?
This interactive lets you answer these questions.
</p>
<p>The conclusion: <b>When more people wear masks, everyone is safer.</b></p>
<p>
By filtering inhaled air, masks provide first-hand protection to those who wear them.
And by filtering or redirecting exhaled air, masks provide second-hand protection to <i>everyone</i> — including people who don't wear masks.
</p>
<aside>
<span @click="expandaside1 = true;">What about masks that don't filter exhaled air?
<span v-if="!expandaside1"> (Click to expand)</span>
</span>
<span v-if="expandaside1">
Some N95 masks come with <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/certain-type-n95-mask-harm-covid19-spread">valves or openings</a> that release air without filtering it.
The CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/respirator-use-faq.html">recommends against</a> wearing these masks in public health settings, because they put other people at risk.
You can see this for yourself in the interactive above.
<br><br>
First set the inhale & exhale effectiveness to a high value (with mask usage somewhere in the middle).
This represents a highly effective mask like an N95.
Now drag the exhale effectiveness towards zero and watch how disease transmission rises, particularly among non-mask wearers.
<br><br>
If you happen to already have one of these masks, the CDC recommends <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/respirator-use-faq.html">covering the exhalation valve</a> with a surgical mask.
</span>
</aside>
<p>
In fact, masks are even more effective than these numbers suggest.
</p>
<h2>How To Stop An Epidemic</h2>
<p>
You put out a fire by starving it of oxygen.
But you don't need to get rid of all the oxygen, you only need to reduce it enough to stop the fire from growing.
It's the same with an epidemic — you don't need to cut disease transmission by 100%.
If you lower it just enough to stop the disease from spreading, you can extinguish the epidemic.
</p>
<p>
You've probably heard of the epidemiology term R0, pronounced R-nought or R-zero.
This is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number">the number of people that a contagious person can infect</a> in a population with no prior immunity to the disease.
</p>
<p>When R0 exceeds 1, the disease will grow exponentially until either enough people get vaccinated, or enough people get infected and develop immunity to the disease.</p>
<p>
But, as Ed Yong writes in the Atlantic, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/">"R0 is not destiny"</a>.
R0 is a product of two numbers: the average number of people that a contagious person encounters, and the chance of infection upon contact.
</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="splash">R0 = <span class="dashed">average number of people that a contagious person encounters</span> <br>⨉ <span class="dotted">chance of infection upon contact</span></div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
Social distancing, quarantines, and lockdowns decrease <span class="dashed">the first number</span>.
And masks decrease <span class="dotted">the second number</span>.
The goal of all these public health strategies is to bring the epidemic under control by pulling R0 beneath 1.
</p>
<p>
With this in mind, let's re-express the impact of masks in terms of R0.
The graph below shows how R0 varies as mask-wearing increases.
</p>
<p>
You can use the first slider to vary R0, which for COVID-19 is between 2 and 3 (that's in the absence of other public health measures such as social distancing, which further reduce R0.)
By varying the effectiveness of the masks, you can see how masks can help bring an epidemic under control.
</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="graphic-container">
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>R0: <span class="dotted">{{R0}}</span></div>
<slider v-model="R0" :min="1" :max="3" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Effectiveness on Exhale: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(eout)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="eout" :min="0" :max="0.99" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Effectiveness on Inhale: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(ein)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="ein" :min="0" :max="0.99" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<graph :traces="graph2Traces" :layout="graph2Layout(
'How Masks Reduce R0',
'Percentage of People Who Wear Masks',
'# People a Contagious Person Infects (R0)',
'Epidemic Under Control',
'Epidemic Out Of Control'
)" :config="config"></graph>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
To stop the spread of COVID-19, we need to keep R0 beneath 1.
When this happens, on average, a contagious person will infect less than one person, and the epidemic will grind to a halt.
</p>
<p>
So how many people need to wear a 50% effective mask to stop the spread of COVID-19?
What if masks were 75% effective?
Or 90% effective?
This interactive lets you predict answers to these questions.
</p>
<aside>
<span @click="expandaside2 = true;">An important caveat: people don't usually mix randomly.
<span v-if="!expandaside2"> (Click to expand)</span>
</span>
<span v-if="expandaside2">
People who wear masks may be more likely to interact with other mask wearers, and less likely to interact with people who don't wear masks.
<br/><br/>
Similarly, non-mask wearers might live in clusters where mask usage is lower than average.
This tendency to interact with others who have similar preferences <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300191">diminishes the protective power of masks</a> because <a href="https://github.com/aatishb/maskmath/blob/master/model/mathmodel.ipynb">non-mask wearers become less likely to benefit from nearby mask-wearers</a>.
<br/><br/>
As <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300191">David Fisman, Amy Greer, and Ashleigh Tuite</a> write in their analysis, "the impact of masks and other face coverings in reducing COVID-19 transmission is likely to be greatest if attention is paid to ensuring availability for disadvantaged populations."
</span>
</aside>
<h2>The Human Cost</h2>
<p>
We can take our understanding one step further by expressing the power of masks in more human terms.
Masks save lives by reducing the chance of infection which, in turn, shrinks the extent of the epidemic.
</p>
<p>
As more people wear masks, R0 decreases.
And as R0 decreases, so does the number of infected people.
So we can get a clearer picture if instead of visualizing R0, we visualize the <b>infected fraction</b> of the population.
</p>
<p>
By using a widely-adopted mathematical model of epidemics known as an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology">SIR model</a>, we can relate R0 to the fraction of people who will eventually be infected.
(To learn more about SIR models, I recommend watching this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs">excellent video</a>.)
</p>
<p>Although this model is a considerable simplification (e.g. it assumes random mixing between people and no lockdowns), it offers us a ballpark estimate of the human cost of not wearing masks.</p>
</div>
<div class="graphic">
<div class="graphic-container">
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>R0: <span class="dotted">{{R0}}</span></div>
<slider v-model="R0" :min="1" :max="3" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Effectiveness on Exhale: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(eout)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="eout" :min="0" :max="0.99" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<label class="row half bigsplash">
<div>Mask Effectiveness on Inhale: <span class="dotted">{{convertToPercent(ein)}}</span>%</div>
<slider v-model="ein" :min="0" :max="0.99" :step="0.01"></slider>
</label>
<graph :traces="graph3Traces(
'% Infected'
)" :layout="graph3Layout(
'How Masks Reduce Infections',
'Percentage of People Who Wear Masks',
'Percentage of People Who Will Be Infected'
)" :config="config"></graph>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<p>
This hill-shaped curve shows us how masks influence the size of an epidemic.
<b>As more people wear masks, the number of infections plummet.</b>
</p>
<p>
When very few people wear masks, we're at the top of the hill, and most people will eventually get infected.
But every step to the right moves us further down.
So even partially effective masks, when partially adopted, can help reduce the spread of COVID-19.
</p>
<p>
To completely stop the spread, we need to get to the bottom of this hill.
But there's a silver lining: as more people wear masks, the hill grows steeper.
Which means <b>masks provide greater returns to society as more people wear them</b>.
</p>
<p>
If enough people wear masks, we can reach the bottom of the hill, where the chance of infection is zero.
This is how masks can end an epidemic.
But masks can only end an epidemic if enough people wear them.
</p>
<p>
You might wonder how many people have to wear masks to end an epidemic.
Well, that depends on how effective the masks are.
</p>
<p>
By playing with interactive above, you'll see that if masks were 50% effective, we'd need roughly three-quarters of the population to wear them to stop the spread of COVID-19.
But if masks were 75% effective, we'd only need half the population to wear them to stop the spread.
</p>
<p>
<b>The more effective the mask, the faster we can descend the hill.</b>
That's why it's important to wear a mask that <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e8126f89327941b9453eeef/t/5ea3b5859bc8f31a11f3deb5/1587787141808/2020-04-24_N95DECON_Face_Mask_Technical_Report_v1_final.pdf">tightly seals your mouth <i>and</i> nose</a>, and is made from an effective filtering material.
</p>
<p>
We all want to get to the bottom of the hill and stop the spread of COVID-19.
But you can't get there by yourself.
Each person can only take a tiny step downwards.
</p>
<p>However, when many people take this small step, together, we take a giant leap down the hill.</p>
<p>Together, we can get to the bottom of the hill.</p>
<p>Together, we can hit the brakes on COVID-19.</p>
</div>
<div class="ending">
<p5 src="js/sketch0.js"></p5>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page footer">
<div class="container">
<h2>Credits & References</h2>
<p>This essay was created by <a href="https://twitter.com/aatishb">Aatish Bhatia</a> in collaboration with <a href="https://twitter.com/minutephysics">Henry Reich</a>.</p>
<p>Check out our <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4">companion video</a> for a snappy visual take on the math of masks! The video was supported by the <a href="https://www.hsfoundation.org/">Heising-Simons Foundation</a>. Here's the <a href="https://aatishb.com/maskmath/calculator.html">mask math calculator</a> shown in the video.</p>
<p>
Many thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/roy_upasana">Upasana Roy</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/PrakashLab">Manu Prakash</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/DFisman">David Fisman</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9">Monica Gandhi</a>, and <a href="https://this-vijay.github.io/">Vijay Ravikumar</a> for their helpful feedback on drafts of this essay.
</p>
<p>
If you found this essay valuable and would like to see more work like this in future, you can <b><a href="https://www.patreon.com/aatishb">support my work on Patreon</a></b>.
</p>
<p>
Here are <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e8126f89327941b9453eeef/t/5f2c4463a5c9f75a38d2b26f/1596736614213/N95DECON_cloth_mask_breathability_filtrationtechnical_report_v1_200804.pdf">some</a> <a href="https://www.maskfaq.com/test-results">informative</a> <a href="http://built-envi.com/what-kind-of-mask-should-i-be-wearing-to-protect-against-covid-19/">resources</a> on the filtering ability of common mask materials.
While masks vary a lot in effectiveness depending on their material and fit, some materials can <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e8126f89327941b9453eeef/t/5f2c4463a5c9f75a38d2b26f/1596736614213/N95DECON_cloth_mask_breathability_filtrationtechnical_report_v1_200804.pdf">exceed</a> <a href="https://www.maskfaq.com/test-results">80%</a> filtering ability when used in a tightly-sealed mask.
</p>
<p>
For the algebra enthusiasts among you (you know who you are), <a href="https://github.com/aatishb/maskmath/blob/master/model/mathmodel.ipynb">here's a writeup</a> covering the math in more detail.
The graphs in this essay extend the work of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01428.x">Brienen et al</a> to account for the bidirectional effectiveness of masks.
</p>
<p>
The bidirectional model of masks underlying this essay was to my knowledge first published in a preprint by <a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.07353.pdf">Tian et al</a> (Table S3 and Fig S4).
This was highlighted by Howard et al in their <a href="https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v3">review article</a> and <a href="https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/">accompanying essay</a>, and further popularized by <a href="https://medium.com/the-atlantic/the-real-reason-to-wear-a-mask-e6405abbc484">Zeynep Tufekci, Jeremy Howard, Trisha Greenhalgh</a> in the Atlantic, and by <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/amid-the-coronavirus-crisis-a-regimen-for-reentry">Atul Gawande</a> in the New Yorker, who writes, <i>"The more effective the mask, the bigger the impact."</i>
</p>
<p>
This text is published under a Creative Commons <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC 4.0</a> license. The source code is available <a href="https://github.com/aatishb/maskmath">on Github</a>. The emojis are created by <a href="https://twemoji.twitter.com/">Twitter</a> and were modified to include a custom mask design.
</p>
<p>
Thanks for reading, and stay safe! 😷
</p>
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