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006.lyx
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#LyX 2.1 created this file. For more info see http://www.lyx.org/
\lyxformat 474
\begin_document
\begin_header
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initials
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\begin_body
\begin_layout Chapter
The Planning Fallacy
\end_layout
\begin_layout Initial
\emph on
\begin_inset Argument 2
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
\emph on
S
\end_layout
\end_inset
\emph default
\begin_inset Argument 3
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
\emph on
ome
\end_layout
\end_inset
children would have waited until
\emph on
after
\emph default
their first trip to Diagon Alley.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Bag of element 79,
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Harry said, and withdrew his hand, empty, from the mokeskin pouch.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Most children would have at least waited to get their
\emph on
wands
\emph default
first.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Bag of
\emph on
okane,
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
said Harry.
The heavy bag of gold popped up into his hand.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry withdrew the bag, then plunged it again into the mokeskin pouch.
He took out his hand, put it back in, and said,
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Bag of tokens of economic exchange.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
That time his hand came out empty.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
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sideways false
status collapsed
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filename 006-shopping_with_minerva_by_dinosaurusgede.png
lyxscale 30
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\size small
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Bag of
\emph on
okane,
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
said Harry.
The heavy bag of gold popped up into his hand.
\end_layout
\end_inset
\end_layout
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Give me back the bag that I just put in.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Out came the bag of gold once more.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres had gotten his hands on at least one magical
item.
Why wait?
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Professor McGonagall,
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Harry said to the bemused witch strolling beside him,
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
can you give me two words, one word for gold, and one word for something
else that isn't money, in a language that I wouldn't know? But don't tell
me which is which.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
\emph on
Ahava
\emph default
and
\emph on
zahav,
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
said Professor McGonagall.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
That's Hebrew, and the other word means love.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Thank you, Professor.
Bag of
\emph on
ahava.
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Empty.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Bag of
\emph on
zahav.
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
And it popped up into his hand.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Zahav is gold?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Harry questioned, and Professor McGonagall nodded.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry thought over his collected experimental data.
It was only the most crude and preliminary sort of effort, but it was enough
to support at least one conclusion:
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
\emph on
Aaaaaaarrrgh this doesn't make any sense!
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
The witch beside him lifted a lofty eyebrow.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Problems, Mr.
\emph on
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
\backslash
\end_layout
\end_inset
\emph default
Potter?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
I just falsified every single hypothesis I had! How can it know that `bag
of 115 Galleons' is okay but not `bag of 90 plus 25 Galleons'? It can
\emph on
count
\emph default
but it can't
\emph on
add?
\emph default
It can understand nouns, but not some noun phrases that mean the same thing?
The person who made this probably didn't speak Japanese and
\emph on
I
\emph default
don't speak any Hebrew, so it's not using
\emph on
their
\emph default
knowledge, and it's not using
\emph on
my
\emph default
knowledge
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Harry waved a hand helplessly.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
The rules seem
\emph on
sorta
\emph default
consistent but they don't
\emph on
mean
\emph default
anything! I'm not even going to ask how a
\emph on
pouch
\emph default
ends up with voice recognition and natural language understanding when
the best Artificial Intelligence programmers can't get the fastest supercompute
rs to do it after thirty-five years of hard work,
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Harry gasped for breath,
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
but
\emph on
what
\emph default
is going
\emph on
on?
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Magic,
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
said Professor McGonagall.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
That's just a
\emph on
word!
\emph default
Even after you tell me that, I can't make any new predictions! It's exactly
like saying 'phlogiston' or 'elan vital' or 'emergence' or 'complexity'!
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
The black-robed witch laughed aloud.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
But it
\emph on
is
\emph default
magic, Mr.
\emph on
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
\backslash
\end_layout
\end_inset
\emph default
Potter.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry slumped over a little.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
With respect, Professor McGonagall, I'm not quite sure you understand what
I'm trying to do here.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
With respect, Mr.
\emph on
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
\backslash
\end_layout
\end_inset
\emph default
Potter, I'm quite sure I don't.
Unless
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
this is just a guess, mind
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
you're trying to take over the world?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
No! I mean yes
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
well,
\emph on
no!
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
I think I should perhaps be alarmed that you have trouble answering the
question.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry glumly considered the Dartmouth Conference on Artificial Intelligence
in 1956.
It had been the first conference ever on the topic, the one that had coined
the phrase
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Artificial Intelligence".
They had identified key problems such as making computers understand language,
learn, and improve themselves.
They had suggested, in perfect seriousness, that significant advances on
these problems might be made by ten scientists working together for two
months.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\emph on
No.
Chin up.
You're just
\emph default
starting
\emph on
on the problem of unravelling all the secrets of magic.
You don't actually
\emph default
know
\emph on
whether it's going to be too difficult to do in two months.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
And you
\emph on
really
\emph default
haven't heard of other wizards asking these sorts of questions or doing
this sort of scientific experimenting?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
Harry asked again.
It just seemed so
\emph on
obvious
\emph default
to him.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Then again, it'd taken more than two hundred years
\emph on
after
\emph default
the invention of the scientific method before any Muggle scientists had
thought to systematically investigate which sentences a
\emph on
human four-year-old
\emph default
could or couldn't understand.
The developmental psychology of linguistics could've been discovered in
the eighteenth century, in principle, but no one had even thought to look
until the twentieth.
So you couldn't really blame the much smaller wizarding world for not investiga
ting the Retrieval Charm.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Professor McGonagall pursed her lips, then shrugged.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
I'm still not sure what you mean by 'scientific experimenting', Mr.
\emph on
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
\backslash
\end_layout
\end_inset
\emph default
Potter.
As I said, I've seen Muggleborn students try to get Muggle science to work
inside Hogwarts, and people invent new Charms and Potions every year.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry shook his head.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Technology isn't the same thing as science at all.
And trying lots of different ways to do something isn't the same as experimenti
ng to figure out the rules.
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
There were plenty of people who'd tried to invent flying machines by trying
out lots of things-with-wings, but only the Wright Brothers had built a
wind tunnel to measure lift…
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Um, how many Muggle-raised children
\emph on
do
\emph default
you get at Hogwarts every year?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
Perhaps ten or so?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry missed a step and almost tripped over his own feet.
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
\emph on
Ten?
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
The Muggle world had a population of six billion and counting.
If you were one in a million, there were seven of you in London and a thousand
more in China.
It was inevitable that the Muggle population would produce
\emph on
some
\emph default
eleven-year-olds who could do calculus
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
Harry knew he wasn't the only one.
He'd met other prodigies in mathematical competitions.
In fact he'd been thoroughly trounced by competitors who probably spent
literally
\emph on
all day
\emph default
practising maths problems and who'd
\emph on
never
\emph default
read a science-fiction book and who would burn out
\emph on
completely
\emph default
before
\emph on
puberty
\emph default
and
\emph on
never
\emph default
amount to
\emph on
anything
\emph default
in their future lives because they'd just practised
\emph on
known
\emph default
techniques instead of learning to think
\emph on
creatively
\emph default
.
(Harry was something of a sore loser.)
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
But… in the wizarding world…
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Ten Muggle-raised children per year, who'd all ended their Muggle educations
at the age of eleven? And Professor McGonagall might be biased, but she
had claimed that Hogwarts was the largest and most eminent wizarding school
in the world… and it only educated up to the age of seventeen.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Professor McGonagall undoubtedly knew every last detail of how you went
about turning into a cat.
But she seemed to have literally never
\emph on
heard
\emph default
of the scientific method.
To her it was just Muggle magic.
And she didn't even seem
\emph on
curious
\emph default
about what secrets might be hiding behind the natural language understanding
of the Retrieval Charm.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
That left two possibilities, really.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Possibility one: Magic was so incredibly opaque, convoluted, and impenetrable,
that even though wizards and witches had tried their best to understand,
they'd made little or no progress and eventually given up; and Harry would
do no better.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\emph on
Or
\emph default
…
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry cracked his knuckles in determination, but they only made a quiet
sort of clicking sound, rather than echoing ominously off the walls of
Diagon Alley.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Possibility two: He'd be taking over the world.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Eventually.
Perhaps not right away.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
That sort of thing
\emph on
did
\emph default
sometimes take longer than two months.
Muggle science hadn't gone to the moon in the first week after Galileo.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
But Harry still couldn't stop the huge smile that was stretching his cheeks
so wide they were starting to hurt.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry had always been frightened of ending up as one of those child prodigies
that never amounted to anything and spent the rest of their lives boasting
about how far ahead they'd been at age ten.
But then most adult geniuses never amounted to anything either.
There were probably a thousand people as intelligent as Einstein for every
actual Einstein in history.
Because those other geniuses hadn't gotten their hands on the one thing
you absolutely needed to achieve greatness.
They'd never found an important problem.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\emph on
You're mine now,
\emph default
Harry thought at the walls of Diagon Alley, and all the shops and items,
and all the shopkeepers and customers; and all the lands and people of
wizarding Britain, and all the wider wizarding world; and the entire greater
universe of which Muggle scientists understood so much less than they believed.
\emph on
I, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres, do now claim this territory in the
name of Science.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Lightning and thunder completely failed to flash and boom in the cloudless
skies.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
What are you smiling about?
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
inquired Professor McGonagall, warily and wearily.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset
I'm wondering if there's a spell to make lightning flash in the background
whenever I make an ominous resolution,
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
explained Harry.
He was carefully memorising the exact words of his ominous resolution so
that future history books would get it right.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard