008.lyx

#LyX 2.1 created this file. For more info see http://www.lyx.org/
\lyxformat 474
\begin_document
\begin_header
\textclass memoir
\use_default_options true
\master hpmor_volume1_16x23.lyx
\begin_modules
initials
\end_modules
\maintain_unincluded_children false
\language english
\language_package default
\inputencoding auto
\fontencoding global
\font_roman times
\font_sans default
\font_typewriter default
\font_math auto
\font_default_family default
\use_non_tex_fonts false
\font_sc false
\font_osf false
\font_sf_scale 100
\font_tt_scale 100
\graphics default
\default_output_format default
\output_sync 0
\bibtex_command default
\index_command default
\paperfontsize 11
\spacing single
\use_hyperref false
\papersize custom
\use_geometry true
\use_package amsmath 1
\use_package amssymb 1
\use_package cancel 1
\use_package esint 1
\use_package mathdots 1
\use_package mathtools 1
\use_package mhchem 1
\use_package stackrel 1
\use_package stmaryrd 1
\use_package undertilde 1
\cite_engine basic
\cite_engine_type default
\biblio_style plain
\use_bibtopic false
\use_indices false
\paperorientation portrait
\suppress_date true
\justification true
\use_refstyle 1
\index Index
\shortcut idx
\color #008000
\end_index
\paperwidth 8.25in
\paperheight 10.75in
\leftmargin 0.5in
\topmargin 0.875in
\rightmargin 0.625in
\bottommargin 0.875in
\secnumdepth 3
\tocdepth 3
\paragraph_separation indent
\paragraph_indentation default
\quotes_language english
\papercolumns 2
\papersides 2
\paperpagestyle default
\tracking_changes false
\output_changes false
\html_math_output 0
\html_css_as_file 0
\html_be_strict false
\end_header

\begin_body

\begin_layout Chapter
Positive Bias
\end_layout

\begin_layout Initial
\begin_inset Argument 2
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout
N
\end_layout

\end_inset


\begin_inset Argument 3
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout
o
\end_layout

\end_inset

 one had asked for help, that was the problem.
 They'd just gone around talking, eating, or staring into the air while
 their parents exchanged gossip.
 For whatever odd reason, no one had been sitting down reading a book, which
 meant she couldn't just sit down next to them and take out her own book.
 And even when she'd boldly taken the initiative by sitting down and continuing
 her third read-through of 
\emph on
Hogwarts: A History,
\emph default
 no one had seemed inclined to sit down next to her.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Aside from helping people with their homework, or anything else they needed,
 she really didn't know how to meet people.
 She didn't 
\emph on
feel
\emph default
 like she was a shy person.
 She thought of herself as a take-charge sort of girl.
 And yet, somehow, if there wasn't some request along the lines of “I can't
 remember how to do long division” then it was just too 
\emph on
awkward
\emph default
 to go up to someone and say… what? She'd never been able to figure out
 what.
 And there didn't seem to be a standard information sheet, which was ridiculous.
 The whole business of meeting people had never seemed sensible to her.
 Why did 
\emph on
she
\emph default
 have to take all the responsibility herself when there were two people
 involved? Why didn't adults ever help? She wished some other girl would
 just walk up to 
\emph on
her
\emph default
 and say, “Hermione, the teacher told me to be friends with you.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But let it be quite clear that Hermione Granger, sitting alone on the first
 day of school in one of the few compartments that had been empty, in the
 last carriage of the train, with the compartment door left open just in
 case anyone for any reason wanted to talk to her, was 
\emph on
not
\emph default
 sad, lonely, gloomy, depressed, despairing, or obsessing about her problems.
 She was, rather, rereading 
\emph on
Hogwarts: A History
\emph default
 for the third time and quite enjoying it, with only a faint tinge of annoyance
 in the back of her mind at the general unreasonableness of the world.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There was the sound of an inter-train door opening, and then footsteps and
 an odd slithering sound coming down the hallway of the train.
 Hermione laid aside 
\emph on
Hogwarts: A History
\emph default
 and stood up and stuck her head outside 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 just in case someone needed help 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 and saw a young boy in a wizard's dress robes, probably first or second
 year going by his height, and looking quite silly with a scarf wrapped
 around his head.
 A small trunk stood on the floor next to him.
 Even as she saw him, he knocked on the door of another, closed compartment,
 and he said in a voice only slightly muffled by the scarf, “Excuse me,
 can I ask a quick question?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
She didn't hear the answer from inside the compartment, but after the boy
 opened the door, she did think she heard him say 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 unless she'd somehow misheard 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 “Does anyone here know the six quarks or where I can find a first-year
 girl named Hermione Granger?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
After the boy had closed that compartment door, Hermione said, “Can I help
 you with something?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The scarfed face turned to look at her, and the voice said, “Not unless
 you can name the six quarks or tell me where to find Hermione Granger.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Up, down, strange, charm, truth, beauty, and why are you looking for her?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was hard to tell from this distance, but she thought she saw the boy
 grin widely under his scarf.
 “Ah, so 
\emph on
you're
\emph default
 a first-year girl named Hermione Granger,” said that young, muffled voice.
 “On the train to Hogwarts, no less.” The boy started to walk towards her
 and her compartment, and his trunk slithered along after him.
 “Technically, all I needed to do was 
\emph on
look
\emph default
 for you, but it seems likely that I'm meant to talk to you or invite you
 to join my party or get a key magical item from you or find out that Hogwarts
 was built over the ruins of an ancient temple or something.
 PC or NPC, that is the question?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione opened her mouth to reply to this, but then she couldn't think
 of any 
\emph on
possible
\emph default
 reply to… 
\emph on
whatever
\emph default
 it was she'd just heard, even as the boy walked over to her, looked inside
 the compartment, nodded with satisfaction, and sat down on the bench across
 from her own.
 His trunk scurried in after him, grew to three times its former diameter
 and snuggled up next to her own in an oddly disturbing fashion.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Please, have a seat,” said the boy, “and do please close the door behind
 you, if you would.
 Don't worry, I don't bite anyone who doesn't bite me first.” He was already
 unwinding the scarf from around his head.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The imputation that this boy thought she was 
\emph on
scared
\emph default
 of him made her hand send the door sliding shut, jamming it into the wall
 with unnecessary force.
 She spun around and saw a young face with bright, laughing green eyes,
 and an angry red-dark scar set into his forehead that reminded her of something
 in the back of her mind but right now she had more important things to
 think about.
 “I didn't say I was Hermione Granger!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
I
\emph default
 didn't say you 
\emph on
said
\emph default
 you were Hermione Granger, I just said you were Hermione Granger.
 If you're asking how I know, it's because I know everything.
 Good evening ladies and gentlemen, my name is Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres
 or Harry Potter for short, I know that probably doesn't mean anything to
 
\emph on
you
\emph default
 for a change
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset

--”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione's mind finally made the connection.
 The scar on his forehead, the shape of a lightning bolt.
 “Harry Potter! You're in 
\emph on
Modern Magical History
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
The Rise and Fall of the Dark Arts
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
Great Wizarding Events of the Twentieth Century.
\emph default
” It was actually the very first time in her whole life that she'd 
\emph on
met
\emph default
 someone from inside a 
\emph on
book,
\emph default
 and it was a rather odd feeling.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy blinked three times.
 “I'm in 
\emph on
books
\emph default
? Wait, of course I'm in books… what a strange thought.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Goodness, didn't you know?” said Hermione.
 “I'd have found out everything I could if it was me.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy spoke rather dryly.
 “Miss Granger, it has been less than 72 hours since I went to Diagon Alley
 and discovered my claim to fame.
 I have spent the last two days buying science books.
 
\emph on
Believe me,
\emph default
 I intend to find out everything I can.” The boy hesitated.
 “What 
\emph on
do
\emph default
 the books say about me?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione Granger's mind flashed back, she hadn't realised she would be tested
 on 
\emph on
those
\emph default
 books so she'd read them only once, but it was just a month ago so the
 material was still fresh in her mind.
 “You're the only one who's survived the Killing Curse so you're called
 the Boy-Who-Lived.
 You were born to James Potter and Lily Potter formerly Lily Evans on the
 31st of July 1980.
 On the 31st of October 1981 the Dark Lord He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named though
 I don't know why not attacked your home.
 You were found alive with the scar on your forehead in the ruins of your
 parents' house near the burnt remains of You-Know-Who's body.
 Chief Warlock Albus Percival Wulfric Brian Dumbledore sent you off somewhere,
 no one knows where.
 
\emph on
The Rise and Fall of the Dark Arts
\emph default
 claims that you survived because of your mother's love and that your scar
 contains all of the Dark Lord's magical power and that the centaurs fear
 you, but 
\emph on
Great Wizarding Events of the Twentieth Century
\emph default
 doesn't mention anything like that and 
\emph on
Modern Magical History
\emph default
 warns that there are lots of crackpot theories about you.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy's mouth was hanging open.
 “Were you told to wait for Harry Potter on the train to Hogwarts, or something
 like that?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“No,” Hermione said.
 “Who told you about 
\emph on
me?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Professor McGonagall and I believe I see why.
 Do you have an eidetic memory, Hermione?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione shook her head.
 “It's not photographic, I've always wished it was but I had to read my
 school books five times over to memorize them all.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Really,” the boy said in a slightly strangled voice.
 “I hope you don't mind if I test that 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 it's not that I don't believe you, but as the saying goes, `Trust, but
 verify'.
 No point in wondering when I can just do the experiment.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione smiled, rather smugly.
 She so loved tests.
 “Go ahead.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy stuck a hand into a pouch at his side and said “Magical Drafts and
 Potions by Arsenius Jigger”.
 When he withdrew his hand it was holding the book he'd named.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Instantly Hermione wanted one of those pouches more than she'd ever wanted
 anything.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy opened the book to somewhere in the middle and looked down.
 “If you were making 
\emph on
oil of sharpness
\emph default
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I can 
\emph on
see
\emph default
 that page from here, you know!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy tilted the book so that she couldn't see it any more, and flipped
 the pages again.
 “If you were brewing a 
\emph on
potion of spider climbing,
\emph default
 what would be the next ingredient you added after the Acromantula silk?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“After dropping in the silk, wait until the potion has turned exactly the
 shade of the cloudless dawn sky, 8 degrees from the horizon and 8 minutes
 before the tip of the sun first becomes visible.
 Stir eight times widdershins and once deasil, and then add eight drams
 of unicorn bogies.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy shut the book with a sharp snap and put the book back into his pouch,
 which swallowed it with a small burping noise.
 “Well well well 
\emph on
well
\emph default
 well well.
 I should like to make you a proposition, Miss Granger.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“A proposition?” Hermione said suspiciously.
 Girls weren't supposed to listen to those.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was also at this point that Hermione realised the other thing 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 well, one of the things 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 which was odd about the boy.
 Apparently people who were 
\emph on
in
\emph default
 books actually 
\emph on
sounded
\emph default
 like a book when they talked.
 This was quite the surprising discovery.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy reached into his pouch and said, “can of pop”, retrieving a bright
 green cylinder.
 He held it out to her and said, “Can I offer you something to drink?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione politely accepted the fizzy drink.
 In fact she 
\emph on
was
\emph default
 feeling sort of thirsty by now.
 “Thank you very much,” Hermione said as she popped the top.
 “Was that your proposition?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy coughed.
 “No,” he said.
 Just as Hermione started to drink, he said, “I'd like you to help me take
 over the universe.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione finished her drink and lowered the can.
 “No thank you, I'm not evil.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy looked at her in surprise, as though he'd been expecting some other
 answer.
 “Well, I was speaking a bit rhetorically,” he said.
 “In the sense of the Baconian project, you know, not political power.
 `The effecting of all things possible' and so on.
 I want to conduct experimental studies of spells, figure out the underlying
 laws, bring magic into the domain of science, merge the wizarding and Muggle
 worlds, raise the entire planet's standard of living, move humanity centuries
 ahead, discover the secret of immortality, colonize the Solar System, explore
 the galaxy, and most importantly, figure out what the heck is really going
 on here because all of this is blatantly impossible.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
That sounded a bit more interesting.
 “And?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy stared at her incredulously.
 “
\emph on
And?
\emph default
 That's not 
\emph on
enough?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“And what do you want from me?” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I want you to help me do the research, of course.
 With your encyclopedic memory added to my intelligence and rationality,
 we'll have the Baconian project finished in no time, where by `no time'
 I mean probably at least thirty-five years.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione was beginning to find this boy annoying.
 “I haven't seen you do anything intelligent.
 Maybe I'll let 
\emph on
you
\emph default
 help me with 
\emph on
my
\emph default
 research.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There was a certain silence in the compartment.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So you're asking me to demonstrate my intelligence, then,” said the boy
 after a long pause.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione nodded.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I warn you that challenging my ingenuity is a dangerous project, and tends
 to make your life a lot more surreal.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I'm not impressed yet,” Hermione said.
 Unnoticed, the green drink once again rose to her lips.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Well, maybe 
\emph on
this
\emph default
 will impress you,” the boy said.
 He leaned forward and looked at her intensely.
 “I've already done a bit of experimenting and I found out that I don't
 need the wand, I can make anything I want happen just by snapping my fingers.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It came just as Hermione was in the middle of swallowing, and she choked
 and coughed and expelled the bright green fluid.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Onto her brand new, never-worn witch's robes, on the very first day of school.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione actually screamed.
 It was a high-pitched sound that sounded like an air raid siren in the
 closed compartment.
 “
\emph on
Eek! My clothes!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Don't panic!” said the boy.
 “I can fix it for you.
 Just watch!” He raised a hand and snapped his fingers.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“You'll 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

” Then she looked down at herself.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The green fluid was still there, but even as she watched, it started to
 vanish and fade and within just a few moments, it was like she'd never
 spilled anything at herself.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione stared at the boy, who was wearing a rather smug sort of smile.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Wordless wandless magic! At 
\emph on
his
\emph default
 age? When he'd only gotten the schoolbooks 
\emph on
three days
\emph default
 ago?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Then she remembered what she'd read, and she gasped and flinched back from
 him.
 
\emph on
All the Dark Lord's magical power! In his scar!
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
She rose hastily to her feet.
 “I, I, I need to go the toilet, wait here all right 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

” she had to find a grownup she had to tell them 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy's smile faded.
 “It was just a trick, Hermione.
 I'm sorry, I didn't mean to scare you.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Her hand halted on the door handle.
 “A 
\emph on
trick?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes,” said the boy.
 “You asked me to demonstrate my intelligence.
 So I did something apparently impossible, which is always a good way to
 show off.
 I can't 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 do anything just by snapping my fingers.” The boy paused.
 “At least I don't 
\emph on
think
\emph default
 I can, I've never actually tested it experimentally.” The boy raised his
 hand and snapped his fingers again.
 “Nope, no banana.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione was as confused as she'd ever been in her life.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy was now smiling again at the look on her face.
 “I did 
\emph on
warn
\emph default
 you that challenging my ingenuity tends to make your life surreal.
 Do remember this the next time I warn you about something.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“But, but,” Hermione stammered.
 “What did you 
\emph on
do,
\emph default
 then?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy's gaze took on a measuring, weighing quality that she'd never seen
 before from someone her own age.
 “You think you have what it takes to be a scientist in your own right,
 with or without my help? Then let's see how 
\emph on
you
\emph default
 investigate a confusing phenomenon.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I…” Hermione's mind went blank for a moment.
 She loved tests but she'd never had a test like 
\emph on
this
\emph default
 before.
 Frantically, she tried to cast back for anything she'd read about what
 scientists were supposed to do.
 Her mind skipped gears, ground against itself, and spat back the instructions
 for doing a science investigation project:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Box Frameless
position "t"
hor_pos "c"
has_inner_box 1
inner_pos "t"
use_parbox 0
use_makebox 0
width "80col%"
special "none"
height "1in"
height_special "totalheight"
status collapsed

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\emph on
Step 1: Form a hypothesis.
\begin_inset Newline newline
\end_inset

Step 2: Do an experiment to test your hypothesis.
\begin_inset Newline newline
\end_inset

Step 3: Measure the results.
\begin_inset Newline newline
\end_inset

Step 4: Make a cardboard poster.
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Step 1 was to form a hypothesis.
 That meant, try to think of something that 
\emph on
could
\emph default
 have happened just now.
 “All right.
 My hypothesis is that you cast a Charm on my robes to make anything spilled
 on it vanish.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All right,” said the boy, “is that your answer?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The shock was wearing off, and Hermione's mind was starting to work properly.
 “Wait, that can't be right.
 I didn't see you touch your wand or say any spells so how could you have
 cast a Charm?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy waited, his face neutral.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“But suppose all the robes come from the store with a Charm 
\emph on
already
\emph default
 on them to keep them clean, which would be a useful sort of Charm for them
 to have.
 You found that out by spilling something on 
\emph on
yourself
\emph default
 earlier.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Now the boy's eyebrows lifted.
 “Is 
\emph on
that
\emph default
 your answer?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“No, I haven't done Step 2, `Do an experiment to test your hypothesis.'”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy closed his mouth again, and began to smile.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione looked at the drinks can, which she'd automatically put into the
 cupholder at the window.
 She took it up and peered inside, and found that it was around one-third
 full.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Well,” said Hermione, “the experiment I want to do is to pour it on my
 robes and see what happens, and my prediction is that the stain will disappear.
 Only if it 
\emph on
doesn't
\emph default
 work, my robes will be stained, and I don't want that.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Do it to mine,” said the boy, “that way you don't have to worry about your
 robes getting stained.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“But 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

” Hermione said.
 There was something 
\emph on
wrong
\emph default
 with that thinking but she didn't know how to say it exactly.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I have spare robes in my trunk,” said the boy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“But there's nowhere for you to change,” Hermione objected.
 Then she thought better of it.
 “Though I suppose I could leave and close the door 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I have somewhere to change in my trunk, too.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione looked at his trunk, which, she was beginning to suspect, was rather
 more special than her own.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All right,” Hermione said, “since you say so,” and she rather gingerly
 poured a bit of green pop onto a corner of the boy's robes.
 Then she stared at it, trying to remember how long the original fluid had
 taken to disappear…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And the green stain vanished!
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione let out a sigh of relief, not least because this meant she wasn't
 dealing with all of the Dark Lord's magical power.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Well, Step 3 was measuring the results, but in this case that was just seeing
 that the stain had vanished.
 And she supposed she could probably skip Step 4, about the cardboard poster.
 “My answer is that the robes are Charmed to keep themselves clean.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Not quite,” said the boy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione felt a stab of disappointment.
 She really wished she 
\emph on
wouldn't
\emph default
 have felt that way, the boy wasn't a teacher, but it was still a test and
 she'd gotten a question wrong and that always felt like a little punch
 in the stomach.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
(It said almost everything you needed to know about Hermione Granger that
 she had never let that stop her, or even let it interfere with her love
 of being tested.)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“The sad thing is,” said the boy, “you probably did everything the book
 told you to do.
 You made a prediction that would distinguish between the robe being charmed
 and not charmed, and you tested it, and rejected the null hypothesis that
 the robe was not charmed.
 But unless you read the very, very best sort of books, they won't quite
 teach you how to do science 
\emph on
properly
\emph default
.
 Well enough to 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 get the right answer, I mean, and not just churn out another publication
 like Dad always complains about.
 So let me try to explain 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 without giving away the answer 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 what you did wrong this time, and I'll give you another chance.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
She was starting to resent the boy's oh-so-superior tone when he was just
 another eleven-year-old like her, but that was secondary to finding out
 what she'd done wrong.
 “All right.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy's expression grew more intense.
 “This is a game based on a famous experiment called the 2-4-6 task, and
 this is how it works.
 I have a 
\emph on
rule
\emph default
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 known to me, but not to you 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 which fits some triplets of three numbers, but not others.
 2-4-6 is one example of a triplet which fits the rule.
 In fact… let me write down the rule, just so you know it's a fixed rule,
 and fold it up and give it to you.
 Please don't look, since I infer from earlier that you can read upside-down.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy said “paper” and “mechanical pencil” to his pouch, and she shut
 her eyes tightly while he wrote.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“There,” said the boy, and he was holding a tightly folded piece of paper.
 “Put this in your pocket,” and she did.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Now the way this game works,” said the boy, “is that you give me a triplet
 of three numbers, and I'll tell you `Yes' if the three numbers are an instance
 of the rule, and `No' if they're not.
 I am Nature, the rule is one of my laws, and you are investigating me.
 You already know that 2-4-6 gets a `Yes'.
 When you've performed all the further experimental tests you want 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 asked me as many triplets as you feel necessary 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 you stop and guess the rule, and then you can unfold the sheet of paper
 and see how you did.
 Do you understand the game?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Of course I do,” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Go.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“4-6-8” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes,” said the boy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“10-12-14”, said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes,” said the boy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione tried to cast her mind a little further afield, since it seemed
 like she'd already done all the testing she needed, and yet it couldn't
 be that easy, could it?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“1-3-5.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Minus 3, minus 1, plus 1.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione couldn't think of anything else to do.
 “The rule is that the numbers have to increase by two each time.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Now suppose I tell you,” said the boy, “that this test is harder than it
 looks, and that only 20% of grownups get it right.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione frowned.
 What had she missed? Then, suddenly, she thought of a test she still needed
 to do.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“2-5-8!” she said triumphantly.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“10-20-30!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“The real answer is that the numbers have to go up by the 
\emph on
same
\emph default
 amount each time.
 It doesn't have to be 2.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Very well,” said the boy, “take the paper out and see how you did.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione took the paper out of her pocket and unfolded it.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
Three real numbers in increasing order, lowest to highest.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione's jaw dropped.
 She had the distinct feeling of something terribly unfair having been done
 to her, that the boy was a dirty rotten cheating liar, but when she cast
 her mind back she couldn't think of any wrong responses that he'd given.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What you've just discovered is called `positive bias',” said the boy.
 “You had a rule in your mind, and you kept on thinking of triplets that
 should make the rule say `Yes'.
 But you didn't try to test any triplets that should make the rule say `No'.
 In fact you didn't get a 
\emph on
single
\emph default
 `No', so `any three numbers' could have just as easily been the rule.
 It's sort of like how people imagine experiments that could confirm their
 hypotheses instead of trying to imagine experiments that could falsify
 them 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 that's not quite exactly the same mistake but it's close.
 You have to learn to look on the negative side of things, stare into the
 darkness.
 When this experiment is performed, only 20% of grownups get the answer
 right.
 And many of the others invent fantastically complicated hypotheses and
 put great confidence in their wrong answers since they've done so many
 experiments and everything came out like they expected.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Now,” said the boy, “do you want to take another shot at the original problem?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
His eyes were quite intent now, as though this were the 
\emph on
real
\emph default
 test.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione shut her eyes and tried to concentrate.
 She was sweating underneath her robes.
 She had an odd feeling that this was the hardest she'd ever been asked
 to think on a test or maybe even the 
\emph on
first
\emph default
 time she'd ever been asked to think on a test.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
What other experiment could she do? She had a Chocolate Frog, could she
 try to rub some of that on the robes and see if 
\emph on
it
\emph default
 vanished? But that still didn't seem like the kind of twisty negative thinking
 the boy was asking for.
 Like she was still asking for a `Yes' if the Chocolate Frog stain disappeared,
 rather than asking for a `No'.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
So… on her hypothesis… when should the pop… 
\emph on
not
\emph default
 vanish?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I have an experiment to do,” Hermione said.
 “I want to pour some pop on the floor, and see if it 
\emph on
doesn't
\emph default
 vanish.
 Do you have some paper towels in your pouch, so I can mop up the spill
 if this doesn't work?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I have napkins,” said the boy.
 His face still looked neutral.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione took the can, and poured a small bit of pop onto the floor.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
A few seconds later, it vanished.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Then the realisation hit her and she felt like kicking herself.
 “Of course! 
\emph on
You
\emph default
 gave me that can! It's not the robe that's enchanted, it was the pop all
 along!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy stood up and bowed to her solemnly.
 He was grinning widely now.
 “Then… may I help you with your research, Hermione Granger?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I, ah…” Hermione was still feeling the rush of euphoria, but she wasn't
 quite sure about how to answer 
\emph on
that.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
They were interrupted by a weak, tentative, faint, rather 
\emph on
reluctant
\emph default
 knocking at the door.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy turned and looked out the window, and said, “I'm not wearing my
 scarf, so can you get that?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was at this point that Hermione realised why the boy 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 no, the Boy-Who-Lived, Harry Potter 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 had been wearing the scarf over his head in the first place, and felt a
 little silly for not realising it earlier.
 It was actually sort of odd, since she would have thought Harry Potter
 would proudly display himself to the world; and the thought occurred to
 her that he might actually be shyer than he seemed.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
When Hermione pulled the door open, she was greeted by a trembling young
 boy who looked exactly like he knocked.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Excuse me,” said the boy in a tiny voice, “I'm Neville Longbottom.
 I'm looking for my pet toad, I, I can't seem to find it anywhere on this
 carriage… have you seen my toad?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“No,” Hermione said, and then her helpfulness kicked in full throttle.
 “Have you checked all the other compartments?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes,” whispered the boy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Then we'll just have to check all the other carriages,” Hermione said briskly.
 “I'll help you.
 My name is Hermione Granger, by the way.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The boy looked like he might faint with gratitude.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Hold on,” came the voice of the 
\emph on
other
\emph default
 boy 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 Harry Potter.
 “I'm not sure that's the best way to do it.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
At this Neville looked like he might cry, and Hermione swung around, angered.
 If Harry Potter was the sort of person who'd abandon a little boy just
 because he didn't want to be interrupted… “What? Why 
\emph on
not?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Well,” said Harry Potter, “It's going to take a while to check the whole
 train by hand, and we might miss the toad anyway, and if we didn't find
 it by the time we're at Hogwarts, he'd be in trouble.
 So what would make a lot more sense is if he went directly to the front
 carriage, where the prefects are, and asked a prefect for help.
 That was the first thing I did when I was looking for you, Hermione, although
 they didn't actually know.
 But they might have spells or magic items that would make it a lot easier
 to find a toad.
 We're only first-years.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
That… 
\emph on
did
\emph default
 make a lot of sense.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Do you think you can make it to the prefects' carriage on your own?” asked
 Harry Potter.
 “I've sort of got reasons for not wanting to show my face too much.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Suddenly Neville gasped and took a step back.
 “I remember that voice! You're one of the Lords of Chaos! 
\emph on
You're the one who gave me chocolate!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
What? What what 
\emph on
what?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter turned his head from the window and rose dramatically.
 “I 
\emph on
never!
\emph default
” he said, voice full of indignation.
 “Do I look like the sort of villain who would give sweets to a child?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Neville's eyes widened.
 “
\emph on
You're
\emph default
 Harry Potter? 
\emph on
The
\emph default
 Harry Potter? 
\emph on
You?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“No, just 
\emph on
a
\emph default
 Harry Potter, there are three of me on this train 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Neville gave a small shriek and ran away.
 There was a brief pattering of frantic footsteps and then the sound of
 a carriage door opening and closing.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione sat down hard on her bench.
 Harry Potter closed the door and then sat down next to her.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Can you please explain to me what's going on?” Hermione said in a weak
 voice.
 She wondered if hanging around Harry Potter meant always being this confused.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Oh, well, what happened was that Fred and George and I saw this poor small
 boy at the train station 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 the woman next to him had gone away for a bit, and he was looking really
 frightened, like he was sure he was about to be attacked by Death Eaters
 or something.
 Now, there's a saying that the fear is often worse than the thing itself,
 so it occurred to me that this was a lad who could actually benefit from
 seeing his worst nightmare come true and that it wasn't so bad as he feared
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione sat there with her mouth wide open.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 and Fred and George came up with this spell to make the scarves over our
 faces darken and blur, like we were undead kings and those were our grave
 shrouds 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
She didn't like at all where this was going.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 and after we were done giving him all the sweets I'd bought, we were like,
 `Let's give him some money! Ha ha ha! Have some Knuts, boy! Have a silver
 Sickle!' and dancing around him and laughing evilly and so on.
 I think there were some people in the crowd who wanted to interfere at
 first, but bystander apathy held them off at least until they saw what
 we were doing, and then I think they were all too confused to do anything.
 Finally he said in this tiny little whisper `go away' so the three of us
 all screamed and ran off, shrieking something about the light burning us.
 Hopefully he won't be as scared of being bullied in the future.
 That's called desensitisation therapy, by the way.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Okay, she 
\emph on
hadn't
\emph default
 guessed right about where this was going.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The burning fire of indignation that was one of Hermione's primary engines
 sputtered into life, even though part of her 
\emph on
did
\emph default
 sort of see what they'd been trying to do.
 “That's awful! 
\emph on
You're
\emph default
 awful! That poor boy! What you did was 
\emph on
mean!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I think the word you're looking for is 
\emph on
enjoyable,
\emph default
 and in any case you're asking the wrong question.
 The question is, did it do more good than harm, or more harm than good?
 If you have any arguments to contribute to 
\emph on
that
\emph default
 question I'm glad to hear them, but I won't entertain any other criticisms
 until that one is settled.
 I certainly agree that what I did 
\emph on
looks
\emph default
 all terrible and bullying and mean, since it involves a scared little boy
 and so on, but that's hardly the key issue now is it? That's called 
\emph on
consequentialism,
\emph default
 by the way, it means that whether an act is right or wrong isn't determined
 by whether it 
\emph on
looks
\emph default
 bad, or mean, or anything like that, the only question is how it will turn
 out in the end 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 what are the consequences.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione opened her mouth to say something utterly 
\emph on
searing
\emph default
 but unfortunately she seemed to have neglected the part where she thought
 of something to say before opening her mouth.
 All she could come up with was, “What if he has 
\emph on
nightmares?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Honestly, I don't think he needed our help to have nightmares, and if he
 has nightmares about 
\emph on
this
\emph default
 instead, then it'll be nightmares involving horrible monsters who give
 you chocolate and that was sort of the whole 
\emph on
point
\emph default
.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione's brain kept hiccoughing in confusion every time she tried to get
 properly angry.
 “Is your life always this peculiar?” she said at last.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter's face gleamed with pride.
 “I 
\emph on
make
\emph default
 it that peculiar.
 You're looking at the product of a lot of hard work and elbow grease.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So…” Hermione said, and trailed off awkwardly.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So,” Harry Potter said, “how much science do you know exactly? I can do
 calculus and I know some Bayesian probability theory and decision theory
 and a lot of cognitive science, and I've read 
\emph on
The Feynman Lectures
\emph default
 (or volume 1 anyway) and 
\emph on
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
Language in Thought and Action
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
Influence: Science and Practice
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
Rational Choice in an Uncertain World
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
Godel, Escher, Bach
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
A Step Farther Out
\emph default
 and 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The ensuing quiz and counter-quiz went on for several minutes before being
 interrupted by another timid knock at the door.
 “Come in,” she and Harry Potter said at almost the same time, and it slid
 back to reveal Neville Longbottom.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Neville 
\emph on
was
\emph default
 actually crying now.
 “I went to the front carriage and found a p-prefect but he t-told me that
 prefects weren't to be bothered over little things like m-missing toads.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The Boy-Who-Lived's face changed.
 His lips set in a thin line.
 His voice, when he spoke, was cold and grim.
 “What were his colours? Green and silver?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“N-no, his badge was r-red and gold.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Red and gold!
\emph default
” burst out Hermione.
 “But those are 
\emph on
Gryffindor's
\emph default
 colours!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter 
\emph on
hissed
\emph default
 at that, a frightening sort of sound that could have come from a live snake
 and made both her and Neville flinch.
 “I 
\emph on
suppose,”
\emph default
 Harry Potter spat, “that finding some first-year's toad isn't 
\emph on
heroic
\emph default
 enough to be worthy of a 
\emph on
Gryffindor
\emph default
 prefect.
 Come on, Neville, 
\emph on
I'll
\emph default
 come with you this time, we'll see if the Boy-Who-Lived gets more attention.
 First we'll find a prefect who ought to know a spell, and if that doesn't
 work, we'll find a prefect who isn't afraid of getting their hands dirty,
 and if 
\emph on
that
\emph default
 doesn't work, I'll start recruiting my fans and if we have to we'll take
 apart the whole train screw by screw.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The Boy-Who-Lived stood up and grabbed Neville's hand in his, and Her\SpecialChar \-
mione
 realised with a sudden brain hiccough that they were nearly the same size,
 even though some part of her had insisted that Harry Potter was a foot
 taller than that, and Neville at least six inches shorter.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Stay!
\emph default
” Harry Potter snapped at her 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 no, wait, at his 
\emph on
trunk
\emph default
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 and he closed the door behind him firmly as he left.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
She probably should have gone with them, but in just a brief moment Harry
 Potter had turned so scary that she was actually rather glad she hadn't
 thought to suggest it.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione's mind was now so jumbled that she didn't even think she could
 properly read “History: A Hogwarts”.
 She felt as if she'd just been run over by a steamroller and turned into
 a pancake.
 She wasn't sure what she was thinking or what she was feeling or why.
 She just sat by the window and stared at the moving scenery.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Well, she did at least know why she was feeling a little sad inside.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Maybe Gryffindor wasn't as wonderful as she had thought.
\end_layout

\end_body
\end_document