022.lyx

#LyX 2.0 created this file. For more info see http://www.lyx.org/
\lyxformat 413
\begin_document
\begin_header
\textclass memoir
\use_default_options true
\master hpmor_volume1_16x23.lyx
\begin_modules
theorems-ams
eqs-within-sections
figs-within-sections
initials
\end_modules
\maintain_unincluded_children false
\language english
\language_package default
\inputencoding auto
\fontencoding global
\font_roman times
\font_sans default
\font_typewriter default
\font_default_family default
\use_non_tex_fonts false
\font_sc false
\font_osf false
\font_sf_scale 100
\font_tt_scale 100

\graphics default
\default_output_format default
\output_sync 0
\bibtex_command default
\index_command default
\paperfontsize 11
\spacing single
\use_hyperref false
\papersize custom
\use_geometry true
\use_amsmath 1
\use_esint 1
\use_mhchem 1
\use_mathdots 1
\cite_engine basic
\use_bibtopic false
\use_indices false
\paperorientation portrait
\suppress_date true
\use_refstyle 1
\index Index
\shortcut idx
\color #008000
\end_index
\paperwidth 8.25in
\paperheight 10.75in
\leftmargin 0.5in
\topmargin 0.875in
\rightmargin 0.625in
\bottommargin 0.875in
\secnumdepth 3
\tocdepth 3
\paragraph_separation indent
\paragraph_indentation default
\quotes_language english
\papercolumns 2
\papersides 2
\paperpagestyle default
\tracking_changes false
\output_changes false
\html_math_output 0
\html_css_as_file 0
\html_be_strict false
\end_header

\begin_body

\begin_layout Chapter
The Scientific Method
\end_layout

\begin_layout Initial
\begin_inset Argument
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout
A
\end_layout

\end_inset


\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

}
\end_layout

\end_inset

 small study room, near but not in the Ravenclaw dorm, one of the many many
 unused rooms of Hogwarts.
 Gray stone the floors, red brick the walls, dark stained wood the ceiling,
 four glowing glass globes set into the four walls of the room.
 A circular table that looked like a wide slab of black marble set on thick
 black marble legs for columns, but which had proved to be very light (weight
 and mass both) and wasn't difficult to pick up and move around if necessary.
 Two comfortably cushioned chairs which had seemed at first to be locked
 to the floor in inconvenient places, but which would, the two of them had
 finally discovered, scoot around to where you stood as soon as you leaned
 over in a posture that looked like you were about to sit down.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

{
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There also seemed to be a number of bats flying around the room.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
That was where, future historians would one day record 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 
\emph on
if
\emph default
 the whole proj\SpecialChar \-
ect ever actually amounted to anything 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 the scientific study of magic had begun, with two young first-year Hogwarts
 students.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres, theorist.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And Hermione Jean Granger, experimenter and test subject.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry was doing better in classes now, at least the classes he considered
 interesting.
 He'd read more books, and not books for eleven-year-olds either.
 He'd practiced Transfiguration over and over during one of his extra hours
 every day, taking the other hour for beginning Occlumency.
 He was taking the worthwhile classes 
\emph on
seriously,
\emph default
 not just turning in his homework every day, but using his free time to
 learn more than was required, to read other books beyond the given textbooks,
 looking to master the subject and not just memorize a few test answers,
 to excel.
 You didn't see that much outside Ravenclaw.
 And now even 
\emph on
within
\emph default
 Ravenclaw, his only remaining competitors were Padma Patil (whose parents
 came from a non-English-speaking culture and thus had raised her with an
 actual work ethic), Anthony Goldstein (out of a certain tiny ethnic group
 that won 25% of the Nobel Prizes), and of course, striding far above everyone
 like a Titan strolling through a pack of puppies, Hermione Granger.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
To run this particular experiment you needed the test subject to learn sixteen
 new spells, on their own, without help or correction.
 That meant the test subject was Hermione.
 Period.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It should be mentioned at this point that the bats flying around the room
 were 
\emph on
not
\emph default
 glowing.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry was having trouble accepting the implications of this.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Oogely boogely!
\emph default
” Hermione said again.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Again, at the tip of Hermione's wand, there was the abrupt, transitionless
 appearance of a bat.
 One moment, empty air.
 The next moment, bat.
 Its wings seemed to be already moving in the instant when it appeared.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And it 
\emph on
still wasn't glowing.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Can I stop now?” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Are you sure,” Harry said through what seemed to be a block in his throat,
 “that maybe with a bit more practice you couldn't get it to glow?” He was
 violating the experimental procedure he'd written down beforehand, which
 was a sin, and he was violating it because he didn't like the results he
 was getting, which was a 
\emph on
mortal
\emph default
 sin, you could go to Science Hell for that, but it didn't seem to be mattering
 anyway.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What did you change this time?” Hermione said, sounding a little weary.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“The durations of the 
\emph on
oo,
\emph default
 
\emph on
eh,
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
ee
\emph default
 sounds.
 It's supposed to be 3 to 2 to 2, not 3 to 1 to 1.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Oogely boogely!
\emph default
” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The bat materialized with only one wing and spun pathetically to the floor,
 flopping around in a circle on the gray stone.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Now what is it really?” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“3 to 2 to 1.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Oogely boogely!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This time the bat didn't have any wings at all and fell with a plop like
 a dead mouse.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“3 to 1 to 2.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And lo the bat did materialize and it did fly up at once toward the ceiling,
 healthy and glowing a bright green.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione nodded in satisfaction.
 “Okay, what next?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There was a long pause.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Seriously?
\emph default
 You 
\emph on
seriously
\emph default
 have to say 
\emph on
Oogely boogely
\emph default
 with the duration of the 
\emph on
oo,
\emph default
 
\emph on
eh,
\emph default
 and 
\emph on
ee
\emph default
 sounds having a ratio of 3 to 1 to 2, or the bat won't glow? 
\emph on
Why? Why? For the love of all that is sacred, why?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Why not?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
AAAAAAAAARRRRRRGHHHH!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
Thud.
 Thud.
 Thud.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry had thought about the nature of magic for a while, and then designed
 a series of experiments based on the premise that virtually everything
 wizards believed about magic was wrong.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
You couldn't 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 need to say `Wingardium Leviosa' in exactly the right way in order to levitate
 something, because, come on, `Wingardium Leviosa'? The universe was going
 to check that you said `Wingardium Leviosa' in exactly the right way and
 otherwise it wouldn't make the quill float?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
No.
 Obviously no, once you thought about it seriously.
 Someone, quite possibly an actual preschool child, but at any rate some
 English-speaking magic user, who thought that `Wingardium Leviosa' sounded
 all flyish and floaty, had originally spoken those words while casting
 the spell for the first time.
 And then told everyone else it was necessary.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But (Harry had reasoned) it didn't 
\emph on
have
\emph default
 to be that way, it wasn't built into the universe, it was built into 
\emph on
you
\emph default
.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There was an old story passed down among scientists, a cautionary tale,
 the story of Blondlot and the N-Rays.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Shortly after the discovery of X-Rays, an eminent French physicist named
 Prosper-Rene Blondlot 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 who had been first to measure the speed of radio waves and show that they
 propagated at the speed of light 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 had announced the discovery of an amazing new phenomenon, N-Rays, which
 would induce a faint brightening of a screen.
 You had to look hard to see it, but it was there.
 N-Rays had all sorts of interesting properties.
 They were bent by aluminium and could be focused by an aluminium prism
 into striking a treated thread of cadmium sulfide, which would then glow
 faintly in the dark…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Soon dozens of other scientists had confirmed Blondlot's results, especially
 in France.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But there were still other scientists, in England and Germany, who said
 they weren't quite sure they could see that faint glow.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Blondlot had said they were probably setting up the machinery wrong.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
One day Blondlot had given a demonstration of N-Rays.
 The lights had turned out, and his assistant had called off the brightening
 and darkening as Blondlot performed his manipulations.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It had been a normal demonstration, all the results going as expected.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Even though an American scientist named Robert Wood had quietly stolen the
 aluminium prism from the center of Blondlot's mechanism.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And that had been the end of N-Rays.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
Reality,
\emph default
 Philip K.
 Dick had once said, 
\emph on
is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Blondlot's sin had been obvious in retrospect.
 He shouldn't have told his assistant what he was doing.
 Blondlot should have made sure the assistant 
\emph on
didn't
\emph default
 know what was being tried or when it was being tried, before asking him
 to describe the screen's brightness.
 It could have been that simple.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Nowadays it was called “blinding” and it was one of the things modern scientists
 took for granted.
 If you were doing a psychology experiment to see whether people got angrier
 when they were hit over the head with red truncheons than with green truncheons
, you didn't get to look at the subjects yourself and decide how “angry”
 they were.
 You would snap photos of them after they'd been hit with the truncheon,
 and send the photos off to a panel of raters, who would rate on a scale
 of 1 to 10 how angry each person looked, obviously 
\emph on
without
\emph default
 knowing what color of truncheon they'd been hit with.
 Indeed there was no good reason to tell the raters what the experiment
 was about, at all.
 You 
\emph on
certainly
\emph default
 wouldn't tell the experimental subjects that 
\emph on
you thought
\emph default
 they ought to be angrier when hit by red truncheons.
 You'd just offer them 20 pounds, lure them into a test room, hit them with
 a truncheon, color randomly assigned of course, and snap the photo.
 In fact the truncheon-hitting and photo-snapping would be done by an assistant
 who hadn't been told about the hypothesis, so he couldn't look expectant,
 hit harder, or snap the photo at just the right time.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Blondlot had destroyed his reputation with the sort of mistake that would
 get a failing grade and probably derisive laughter from the T.A.
 in a first-year undergraduate course on experimental design… in 1991.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But this had been a bit longer ago, in 1904, and so it had taken months
 before Robert Wood had formulated the obvious alternative hypothesis and
 figured out how to test it, and dozens of other scientists had been sucked
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset

in.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
More than two centuries after science had gotten started.
 That late in scientific history, it still hadn't been obvious.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Which made it 
\emph on
entirely
\emph default
 plausible that in the tiny wizarding world, where science didn't seem much
 known at all, no one had ever tried the first, the simplest, the most obvious
 thing that any modern scientist would think to check.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The books were full of complicated instructions for all the things you had
 to do 
\emph on
exactly right
\emph default
 in order to cast a spell.
 And, Harry had hypothesized, the process of obeying those instructions,
 of checking that you were following them correctly, probably 
\emph on
did
\emph default
 do something.
 It 
\emph on
forced you to concentrate on the spell
\emph default
.
 Being told to just wave your wand and wish probably 
\emph on
wouldn't
\emph default
 work as well.
 And once you believed the spell was supposed to work a certain way, once
 you had practiced it that way, you might not be able to convince yourself
 that it could work any 
\emph on
other
\emph default
 way…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
…if you did the simple but wrong thing, and tried to test alternative forms
 
\emph on
yourself.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But what if you 
\emph on
didn't know
\emph default
 what the original spell had been like?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
What if you gave Hermione a list of spells she hadn't studied yet, taken
 from a book of silly prank spells in the Hogwarts library, and some of
 those spells had the correct and original instructions, while others had
 one changed gesture, one changed word? What if you kept the instructions
 constant, but told her that a spell supposed to create a red worm was supposed
 to create a blue worm instead?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Well, in that case, it had turned out…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
…Harry was having trouble believing his results here…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
…if you told Hermione to say “Oogely boogely” with the vowel durations in
 the ratio of 3 to 1 to 1, instead of the correct ratio of 3 to 1 to 2,
 you still got the bat but it wouldn't glow any more.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Not that belief was 
\emph on
irrelevant
\emph default
 here.
 Not that 
\emph on
only
\emph default
 the words and wand movements mattered.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
If you gave Hermione completely incorrect information about what a spell
 was supposed to do, it would stop working.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
If you didn't tell her at all what the spell was supposed to do, it would
 stop working.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
If she knew in very vague terms what the spell was supposed to do, or she
 was only partially wrong, then the spell would work as originally described
 in the book, not the way she'd been told it should.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry was, at this moment, literally banging his head against the brick
 wall.
 Not hard.
 He didn't want to damage his precious brains.
 But if he didn't have some outlet for his frustration, he would spontaneously
 catch on fire.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
Thud.
 Thud.
 Thud.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It seemed the universe actually 
\emph on
did
\emph default
 want you to say `Wingardium Leviosa' and it wanted you to say it in a certain
 exact way and it didn't care what 
\emph on
you
\emph default
 thought the pronunciation should be any more than it cared how you felt
 about gravity.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The worst part of it was the smug, amused look on Hermione's face.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione had 
\emph on
not
\emph default
 been okay with sitting around obediently following Harry's instructions
 without being told why.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
So Harry had explained to her what they were testing.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry had explained why they were testing it.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry had explained why probably no wizard had tried it before them.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry had explained that he was actually fairly confident of his prediction.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Because, Harry had said, there was 
\emph on
no way
\emph default
 that the universe actually wanted you to say `Wingardium Leviosa'.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hermione had pointed out that this was not what her books said.
 Hermione had asked if Harry really thought he was smarter, at eleven years
 old and just over a month into his Hogwarts education, than all the other
 wizards in the world who disagreed with him.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry had said the following exact words:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Of course.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Now Harry was staring at the red brick directly in front of him and contemplatin
g how hard he would have to hit his head in order to give himself a concussion
 that would interfere with long-term memory formation and prevent him from
 remembering this later.
 Hermione wasn't laughing, but he could feel her 
\emph on
intent to laugh
\emph default
 radiating out from behind him like a dreadful pressure on his skin, sort
 of like knowing you were being stalked by a serial killer only 
\emph on
worse.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Say it,” Harry said.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I wasn't 
\emph on
going
\emph default
 to,” said the kindly voice of Hermione Granger.
 “It didn't seem nice.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Just get it over with,” said Harry.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Okay! So you gave me this 
\emph on
whole long lecture
\emph default
 about how hard it was to do basic science and how we might need to stay
 on the problem for 
\emph on
thirty-five years
\emph default
, and then you went and expected us to make the greatest discovery in the
 history of magic in the first hour we were working together.
 You didn't just hope, you really expected it.
 You're silly.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Thank you.
 Now 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I've read all the books you gave me and I still don't know what to call
 that.
 Overconfidence? Planning fallacy? Super duper Lake Wobegon effect? They'll
 have to name it after you.
 Harry Bias.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All 
\emph on
right!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“But it 
\emph on
is
\emph default
 cute.
 It's such a boy thing to do.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Drop dead.
\emph default
“
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Aw, you say the most romantic things.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
Thud.
 Thud.
 Thud.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So what's next?” said Hermione.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry rested his head against the bricks.
 His forehead was starting to hurt where he'd been banging it.
 “Nothing.
 I have to go back and design different experiments.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Over the last month, Harry had carefully worked out, in advance, a course
 of experimentation for them that would have lasted until December.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It would have been a 
\emph on
great
\emph default
 set of experiments if the 
\emph on
very first test
\emph default
 had not falsified the basic premise.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry could not believe he had been this dumb.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Let me correct myself,” said Harry.
 “I need to design 
\emph on
one
\emph default
 new experiment.
 I'll let you know when we've got it, and we'll do it, and then I'll design
 the next one.
 How does that sound?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“It sounds like 
\emph on
someone
\emph default
 wasted a 
\emph on
whole lot of effort
\emph default
.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
Thud.

\emph default
 Ow.
 He'd done that a bit harder than he'd planned.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So,” said Hermione.
 She was leaning back in her chair and the smug look was back on her face.
 “What did we discover today?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I discovered,” said Harry through gritted teeth, “that when it comes to
 doing truly basic research on a genuinely confusing problem where you have
 no clue what's going on, my books on scientific methodology aren't worth
 crap 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Language, Mr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter! Some of us are innocent young girls!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Fine.
 But if my books were worth a 
\emph on
carp,
\emph default
 that's a kind of fish not anything bad, they would have given me the following
 important piece of advice: When there's a confusing problem and you're
 just starting out and you have a falsifiable hypothesis, go test it.
 Find some simple, easy way of doing a basic check and do it right away.
 Don't worry about designing an elaborate course of experiments that would
 make a grant proposal look impressive to a funding agency.
 Just check as fast as possible whether your ideas are false before you
 start investing huge amounts of effort in them.
 How does that sound for a moral?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Mmm… okay,” said Hermione.
 “But I was also hoping for something like `Hermione's books aren't worthless.
 They're written by wise old wizards who know way more about magic than
 I do.
 I should pay attention to what Hermione's books say.' Can we have that moral
 too?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry's jaw seemed to be clenched too tightly to let any words out, so he
 just nodded.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Great!” Hermione said.
 “I liked this experiment.
 We learned a lot from it and it only took me an hour or so.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote
\align center
\begin_inset Graphics
	filename fleur.png
	scale 50

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
In the dungeons of Slytherin.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
An unused classroom lit with eerie green light, much brighter this time
 and coming from a small crystal globe with a temporary enchantment, but
 eerie green light nonetheless, casting strange shadows from the dusty desks.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Two boy-sized figures in cowled grey cloaks (no masks) had entered in silence,
 and sat down in two chairs opposite the same desk.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was the second meeting of the Bayesian Conspiracy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco Malfoy hadn't been sure if he should look forward to it or not.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter, judging by the expression on his face, didn't seem to have
 any doubts on the appropriate mood.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter looked like he was ready to kill someone.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Hermione Granger,” said Harry Potter, just as Draco was opening his mouth.
 “
\emph on
Don't ask
\emph default
.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard

\emph on
He couldn't have gone on another date, could he?
\emph default
 thought Draco, but that didn't make any sense.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Harry,” said Draco, “I'm sorry but I have to ask this anyway, did you 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 order the mudblood girl an expensive mokeskin pouch for her birthday?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Yes, I did.
 You've already worked out why, of course.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco reached up and raked fingers through his hair in frustration, his
 cowl brushing the back of his hand.
 He 
\emph on
hadn't
\emph default
 been quite sure why, but now he couldn't say so.
 And Slytherin 
\emph on
knew
\emph default
 he was courting Harry Potter, he'd made it obvious enough in Defense class.
 “Harry,” said Draco, “people know I'm friends with you, they don't know
 about the Conspiracy of course, but they know we're friends, and it makes
 
\emph on
me
\emph default
 look bad when you do that sort of thing.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter's face tightened.
 “Anyone in Slytherin who can't understand the concept of acting nice toward
 people you don't actually like should be ground up and fed to pet snakes.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“There are a lot of people in Slytherin who 
\emph on
don't,
\emph default
” Draco said, his voice serious.
 “Most people are stupid, and you have to look good in front of them anyway.”
 Harry Potter 
\emph on
had
\emph default
 to understand that if he ever wanted to get anywhere in life.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What do 
\emph on
you
\emph default
 care what other people think? Are you really going to live your life needing
 to explain everything you do to the dumbest idiots in Slytherin, letting
 
\emph on
them
\emph default
 judge 
\emph on
you?
\emph default
 I'm sorry, Draco, but I'm not lowering my cunning plots to the level of
 what the dumbest Slytherins can understand, just because it might make
 you look bad otherwise.
 Not even your friendship is worth that.
 It would 
\emph on
take all the fun out of life.

\emph default
 Tell me 
\emph on
you
\emph default
 haven't ever thought the same thing when someone in Slytherin is being
 too stupid to breathe, that it's beneath the dignity of a Malfoy to have
 to pander to them.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco genuinely hadn't.
 Ever.
 Pandering to idiots was like breathing, you did it without thinking about
 it.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Harry,” Draco said at last.
 “Just doing whatever you want, without worrying about how it looks, isn't
 smart.
 The 
\emph on
Dark Lord
\emph default
 worried about how he looked! He was feared and hated, and he knew 
\emph on
exactly
\emph default
 what sort of fear and hate he wanted to create.
 
\emph on
Everyone
\emph default
 has to worry about what other people think.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The cowled figure shrugged.
 “Perhaps.
 Remind me sometime to tell you about something called Asch's Conformity
 Experiment, you might find it quite amusing.
 For now I'll just note that it's dangerous to worry about what other people
 think on 
\emph on
instinct,
\emph default
 because you 
\emph on
actually care,
\emph default
 not as a matter of cold-blooded calculation.
 Remember, I was beaten and bullied by older Slytherins for fifteen minutes,
 and afterward I stood up and graciously forgave them.
 Just like the good and virtuous Boy-Who-Lived ought to do.
 But my cold-blooded calculations, Draco, tell me that I have 
\emph on
no use
\emph default
 for the dumbest idiots in Slytherin, since 
\emph on
I don't own a pet snake.

\emph default
 So I have no reason to care what they think about how I conduct my duel
 with Hermione Granger.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco did not clench his fists in frustration.
 “She's just some mudblood,” Draco said, keeping his voice calm, rather
 than shouting.
 “If you don't like her, push her down the stairs.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Ravenclaw would know 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Have Pansy Parkinson push her down the stairs! You wouldn't even have to
 manipulate her, offer her a Sickle and she'd do it!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
I
\emph default
 would know! Hermione beat me in a book-reading contest, she's getting better
 grades than me, I have to defeat her with my 
\emph on
brain
\emph default
 or it doesn't count!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
She's just a mudblood! Why do you respect her that much?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
She's a power among Ravenclaws! Why do you care what some powerless idiot
 in Slytherin thinks?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
It's called politics! And if you can't play it you can't have power!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Walking on the moon is power! Being a great wizard is power! There are kinds
 of power that don't require me to spend the rest of my life pandering to
 morons!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Both of them stopped, and, in almost perfect unison, began taking deep breaths
 to calm themselves.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Sorry,” Harry Potter said after a few moments, wiping sweat from his forehead.
 “Sorry, Draco.
 You've got a lot of political power and it makes sense for you to keep
 it.
 You 
\emph on
should
\emph default
 be calculating what Slytherin thinks.
 It's an important game and I shouldn't have insulted it.
 But you can't ask 
\emph on
me
\emph default
 to lower the level of my game in Ravenclaw, just so that you don't look
 bad by associating with me.
 Tell Slytherin you're gritting your teeth while you pretend to be my friend.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
That was exactly what Draco 
\emph on
had
\emph default
 told Slytherin, and he still wasn't sure whether it was true.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Anyway,” Draco said.
 “Speaking of your image.
 I'm afraid I've got some bad news.
 Rita Skeeter heard some of the stories about you and she's been asking
 questions.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter raised his eyebrows.
 “Who?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“She writes for the 
\emph on
Daily Prophet,
\emph default
” Draco said.
 He tried to keep the worry out of his voice.
 The 
\emph on
Daily Prophet
\emph default
 was one of Father's primary tools, he used it like a wizard's wand.
 “That's the newspaper people actually pay attention to.
 Rita Skeeter writes about celebrities, and as she puts it, uses her quill
 to puncture their over-inflated reputations.
 If she can't find any rumors about you, she'll just make up her own.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I 
\emph on
see,
\emph default
” said Harry Potter.
 His green-lit face looked very thoughtful beneath the cowl.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco hesitated before saying what he had to say next.
 By now someone had certainly reported to Father that he was courting Harry
 Potter, and Father would also know that Draco hadn't written home about
 it, and Father would understand that Draco didn't think he could actually
 keep it a secret, which sent a clear message that Draco was practicing
 his own game now but still on Father's side, since if Draco had been tempted
 away, he would have been sending false reports.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It followed that Father had probably anticipated what Draco was about to
 say next.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Playing the game with Father for real was a rather unnerving sensation.
 Even if they were on the same side.
 It was, on the one hand, exhiliarating, but Draco also knew that in the
 end it would turn out that Father had played the game better.
 There was no other way it could possibly go.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Harry,” Draco finally said.
 “This isn't a suggestion.
 This isn't my advice.
 Just the way it is.
 My father could almost certainly quash that article.
 But it would cost you.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
That Father had been expecting Draco to tell Harry Potter exactly that was
 not something Draco said out loud.
 Harry Potter would work it out on his own, or not.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
But instead Harry Potter shook his head, smiling beneath the cowl.
 “I have no intention of trying to quash Rita Skeeter.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco didn't even try to keep the incredulity out of his voice.
 “You 
\emph on
can't
\emph default
 tell me you don't care what the 
\emph on
newspaper
\emph default
 says about you!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I care less than you might think,” said Harry Potter.
 “But I have my own ways of dealing with the likes of Skeeter.
 I don't need Lucius's help.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
A worried look came over Draco's face before he could stop it.
 Whatever Harry Potter was about to do next, it would be something Father
 wasn't expecting, and Draco was feeling very nervous about where that might
 lead.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco also realized that his hair was getting sweaty underneath the cowl.
 He'd never actually worn one of those before, and hadn't realized that
 the Death Eaters' cloaks probably had things like Cooling Charms.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter wiped some sweat from his forehead again, grimaced, took out
 his wand, pointed it upward, took a deep breath, and said “
\emph on
Frigideiro!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Moments later Draco felt the cold draft.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Frigideiro! Frigideiro! Frigideiro! Frigideiro! Frigideiro!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Then Harry Potter lowered the wand, though his hand seemed a bit shaky,
 and put it back into his robes.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The whole room seemed perceptibly cooler.
 Draco could have done that too, but still, not bad.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So,” Draco said.
 “Science.
 You're going to tell me about blood.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“We're going to 
\emph on
find out
\emph default
 about blood,” Harry Potter said.
 “By doing experiments.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All right,” Draco said.
 “What sort of experiments?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter smiled evilly beneath his cowl, and said, “You tell me.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote
\align center
\begin_inset Graphics
	filename fleur.png
	scale 50

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco had heard of something called the Socratic Method, which was teaching
 by asking questions (named after an ancient philosopher who had been too
 smart to be a real Muggle and hence had been a disguised pureblood wizard).
 One of his tutors had used Socratic teaching a lot.
 It had been annoying but effective.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Then there was the Potter Method, which was insane.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
To be fair, Draco had to admit that Harry Potter had tried the Socratic
 Method first and it hadn't been working too well.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had asked how Draco would go about 
\emph on
disproving
\emph default
 the blood purist hypothesis that wizards couldn't do the neat stuff now
 that they'd done eight centuries ago because they had interbred with Muggleborn
s and Squibs.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco had said that he did not understand how Harry Potter could sit there
 with a straight face and claim this was not a trap.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had replied, still with a straight face, that if it was a trap
 it would have been so pathetically obvious that 
\emph on
he
\emph default
 ought to be ground up and fed to pet snakes, but it was 
\emph on
not
\emph default
 a trap, it was simply a rule of how scientists operated that you had to
 try to disprove your own theories, and if you made an honest effort and
 failed, that was victory.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco had tried to point out the staggering stupidity of this by suggesting
 that the key to surviving a duel was to cast Avada Kedavra on your own
 foot and miss.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had 
\emph on
nodded
\emph default
.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco had shaken his head.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had then presented the idea that scientists watched ideas fight
 to see which ones won, and you 
\emph on
couldn't fight without an opponent,
\emph default
 so Draco needed to figure out opponents for the blood purist hypothesis
 to fight so that blood purism could win, which Draco understood a little
 better even though Harry Potter had said it with a rather distasteful look.
 Like, it was clear that if blood purism was the way the world really was,
 then the sky just had to be blue, and if some other theory was true, the
 sky just had to be green; and nobody had seen the sky yet; and then you
 went outside and looked and the blood purists won; and after this had happened
 six times in a row, people would start noticing the trend.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had then proceeded to claim that all the opponents Draco was
 inventing were too weak, so blood purism wouldn't get credit for defeating
 them because the battle wouldn't be impressive enough.
 Draco had understood that too.
 
\emph on
Wizards have gotten weaker because house elves are stealing our magic
\emph default
 hadn't sounded impressive to him either.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
(Though Harry Potter 
\emph on
had
\emph default
 said that one at least was testable, in that they could try to check if
 house elves had gotten stronger over time, and even draw a picture representing
 the increasing strength of house elves and another picture representing
 the decreasing strength of wizards and if the two pictures matched that
 would point to the house elves, all said in such completely serious tones
 that Draco had felt an impulse to ask Dobby a few pointed questions under
 Veritaserum before snapping out of it.)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And Harry Potter had finally said that Draco 
\emph on
couldn't
\emph default
 fix the battle, scientists weren't dumb, it would be 
\emph on
obvious
\emph default
 if you fixed the battle, it had to be a 
\emph on
real fight,
\emph default
 between two different theories that might both 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 be true, with a test that only the 
\emph on
true
\emph default
 hypothesis would win, something that actually 
\emph on
would
\emph default
 come out different ways depending on which hypothesis was actually correct,
 and there would be experienced scientists watching to make sure that was
 exactly what happened.
 Harry Potter had claimed that he himself just wanted to know 
\emph on
how blood really worked
\emph default
 and for that he need to see blood purism 
\emph on
really win
\emph default
 and Draco wasn't going to fool 
\emph on
him
\emph default
 with theories that were just there to be knocked down.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Even having seen the point, Draco hadn't been able to invent any “plausible
 alternatives”, as Harry Potter put it, to the idea that wizards were getting
 less powerful because they were mixing their blood with mud.
 It was too obviously true.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was then that Harry Potter had said, rather frustrated, that he couldn't
 imagine Draco was 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 this bad at considering different viewpoints, 
\emph on
surely
\emph default
 there'd been Death Eaters who'd posed as enemies of blood purism and had
 come up with much more plausible-sounding arguments against their own side
 than Draco was offering.
 If Draco had been trying to pose as a member of Dumbledore's faction, and
 come up with the house elf hypothesis, he wouldn't have fooled anyone for
 a second.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco had been forced to admit this was a point.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Hence the Potter Method.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Please, Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy,” whined Harry Potter, “why won't you accept my paper?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had needed to repeat the phrase “just pretend to be pretending
 to be a scientist” three times before Draco had understood.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
In that moment Draco had realized that there was something deeply 
\emph on
wrong
\emph default
 with Harry Potter's brain, and anyone who tried Legilimency on it would
 probably never come back out again.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter had then gone into further and considerable detail: Draco was
 to pretend to be a Death Eater who was posing as the editor of a scientific
 journal, Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy, who wanted to reject his enemy Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter's paper “On the Heritability of Magical Ability”, and if the Death
 Eater didn't act like a real scientist would, he would be revealed as a
 Death Eater and executed, while Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy was also being watched by his own rivals and needed to 
\emph on
appear
\emph default
 to reject Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter's paper for neutral scientific reasons or he would lose his position
 as journal editor.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was a wonder the Sorting Hat wasn't gibbering madly in St.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Mungo's.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was also the most complicated thing anyone had 
\emph on
ever
\emph default
 asked Draco to pretend and there was no possible way he could have refused
 the challenge.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Right now they were, as Harry Potter had put it, getting in the mood.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I'm afraid, Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter, that you wrote this in the wrong color of ink,” Draco said.
 “Next!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter's face did an excellent job of crumpling in despair, and Draco couldn't
 help but feel a flash of Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy's glee, even though the Death Eater was only pretending to be Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
This part was 
\emph on
fun.

\emph default
 He could have done this all day long.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter got up from the chair, slumped over in dismay, and trudged off, and
 turned into Harry Potter, who gave Draco a thumbs-up, and then turned back
 into Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter again, now approaching with an eager smile.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter sat down and presented Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy with a piece of parchment on which was written:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\align center

\emph on
On the Heritability of Magical Ability
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\align center

\emph on
Dr.
\emph default

\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset


\emph on
H.
 J.
\emph default

\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset


\emph on
Potter-Evans-Verres, Institute for Sufficiently Advanced Science
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\align center

\emph on
My observation:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\align center

\emph on
Today's wizards can't do things as impressive as
\begin_inset Newline newline
\end_inset

 what wizards used to do 800 years ago.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\align center

\emph on
My conclusion:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\align center

\emph on
Wizardkind has become weaker by mixing
\begin_inset Newline newline
\end_inset

 their blood with Muggleborns and Squibs.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy,” said Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter with a hopeful look, “I was wondering if the 
\emph on
Journal of Irreproducible Results
\emph default
 could consider for publication my paper entitled `On the Heritability of
 Magical Ability'.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco looked at the parchment, smiling while he considered possible rejections.
 If he was a professor, he would have refused the essay as too short, so
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“It's too long, Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter,” said Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
For a moment there was genuine incredulity on Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter's face.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Ah…” said Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter.
 “How about if I get rid of the separate lines for observations and conclusions,
 and just put in a 
\emph on
therefore
\emph default
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Then it'll be too short.
 Next!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter trudged off.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All right,” said Harry Potter, “you're getting 
\emph on
too
\emph default
 good at this.
 Two more times to practice, and then third time is for real, no interruptions
 between, I'll just come in straight at you and that time you'll reject
 the paper based on the actual content, remember, your scientific rivals
 are watching.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter's next paper was perfect in every way, a marvel of its kind, but
 unfortunately had to be rejected because Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy's journal was having trouble with the letter E.
 Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter offered to rewrite it without those words, and Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy explained that it was really more of a vowel problem.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The paper after that was rejected because it was Tuesday.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was, in fact, Saturday.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter tried to point this out and was told “Next!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
(Draco was starting to understand why Snape had used his hold over Dumbledore
 just to get a position that let him be awful to students.)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
And then 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter was approaching with a superior smirk on his face.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“This is my latest paper, 
\emph on
On the Heritability of Magical Ability,
\emph default
” Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter stated confidently, and thrust out the parchment.
 “I have decided to allow your journal to publish it, and have prepared
 it in perfect accordance with your guidelines so that you may publish it
 quickly.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The Death Eater decided to track down and kill Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter after his mission was done.
 Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy kept a polite smile on his face, since his rivals were watching,
 and said…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
(The pause stretched, with Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter looking at him impatiently.)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
…
\begin_inset Quotes eld
\end_inset

Let me look at that, please.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy took the parchment and perused it carefully.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The Death Eater was starting to get nervous about the fact that he wasn't
 a real scientist, and Draco was trying to remember how to talk like Harry
 Potter.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“You, ah, need to consider other possible explanations for your, um, observation
, besides just this one 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Really?” interrupted Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter.
 “Like what, exactly? 
\emph on
House elves are stealing our magic?
\emph default
 My data admit of only one possible conclusion, Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy.
 There 
\emph on
are
\emph default
 no other plausible hypotheses.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco was trying furiously to order his brain to think, what would he say
 if he was posing as a member of Dumbledore's faction, what 
\emph on
did
\emph default
 they claim was the explanation for wizardkind's decline, Draco had never
 bothered to actually ask that…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“If you can't think of any other way to explain my data, you'll have to
 publish my paper, 
\emph on
Dr.
\emph default

\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset


\emph on
Malfoy.
\emph default
“
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
It was the sneer on Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Potter's face that did it.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Oh yeah?” snapped Dr.
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
 
\end_layout

\end_inset

Malfoy.
 “How do you know that magic itself isn't fading away?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Time stopped.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco and Harry Potter exchanged looks of appalled horror.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Then Harry Potter spat something that was probably an extremely bad word
 if you'd been raised by Muggles.
 “
\emph on
I didn't think of that!
\emph default
” said Harry Potter.
 “And I should have.
 The magic goes away.
 
\emph on
Damn, damn, damn!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
The alarm in Harry Potter's voice was contagious.
 Without even thinking about it, Draco's hand went into his robes and clutched
 at his wand.
 He'd thought the House of Malfoy was 
\emph on
safe,
\emph default
 so long as you only married into families that could trace their bloodlines
 back four generations you were supposed to be 
\emph on
safe,
\emph default
 it had never occurred to him before that there might be nothing anyone
 could do to stop the end of magic.
 “Harry, what do we do?” Draco's voice was rising in panic.
 “
\emph on
What do we do?
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Let me think!
\emph default
”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
After a few moments, Harry grabbed from a nearby desk the same quill and
 roll of parchment he'd used to write his pretend paper, and started scribbling
 something.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“We'll figure it out,” Harry said, his voice tight, “if magic is fading
 out of the world we'll figure out how fast it's fading and how much time
 we have left to do something, and then we'll figure out why it's fading,
 and then we'll do something about it.
 Draco, have wizarding powers been declining at a steady rate, or have there
 been sudden drops?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I… I don't know…”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“You told me that no one had matched the four founders of Hogwarts.
 So it's been going on for at least eight centuries, then? You can't remember
 hearing anything about the problems suddenly appearing five centuries ago
 or anything like that?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco was trying frantically to think.
 “I always heard that nobody was as good as Merlin and then after that nobody
 was as good as the Founders of Hogwarts.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All right,” Harry said.
 He was still scribbling.
 “Because three centuries ago is when Muggles started to not believe in
 magic, which I thought might have something to do with it.
 And about a century and a half ago was when Muggles began using a kind
 of technology that stops working around magic and I was wondering if it
 might also go the other way around.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco exploded out of his chair, so angry he could hardly even speak.
 “It's the 
\emph on
Muggles
\emph default
 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
Damn it!
\emph default
” roared Harry.
 “Weren't you even listening to 
\emph on
yourself?
\emph default
 It's been going on for eight centuries at least and the Muggles weren't
 doing anything interesting then! 
\emph on
We have to figure out the real truth!
\emph default
 The Muggles 
\emph on
might
\emph default
 have something to do with this but if they 
\emph on
don't
\emph default
 and you go blaming everything on them and that stops us from figuring out
 what's 
\emph on
really
\emph default
 going on then one day you're going to wake up in the morning and find out
 that your wand is just a stick of wood!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco's breath stopped in his throat.
 His father often said 
\emph on
our wands will break in our hands
\emph default
 in his speeches but Draco had never really thought before about what that
 
\emph on
meant
\emph default
, it wasn't going to happen to 
\emph on
him
\emph default
 after all.
 And now suddenly it seemed very real.
 
\emph on
Just a stick of wood.

\emph default
 Draco could imagine just what it would be like to take out his wand and
 try to cast a spell and find that nothing was happening…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
That could happen to 
\emph on
everyone
\emph default
.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
There would be no more wizards, no more magic, ever.
 Just Muggles who had a few legends about what their ancestors had been
 able to do.
 Some of the Muggles would be called Malfoy, and that would be all that
 was left of the name.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
For the first time in his life, Draco realized why there were Death Eaters.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
He'd always taken for granted that becoming a Death Eater was something
 you did when you grew up.
 Now Draco 
\emph on
understood
\emph default
, he knew why Father and Father's friends had sworn to give their lives
 to prevent the nightmare from coming to pass, there were things you couldn't
 just stand by and watch happen.
 But what if it was going to happen 
\emph on
anyway
\emph default
, what if all the sacrifices, all the friends they'd lost to Dumbledore,
 the 
\emph on
family
\emph default
 they'd lost, what if it had all been for 
\emph on
nothing…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Magic 
\emph on
can't
\emph default
 be fading away,” Draco said.
 His voice was breaking.
 “It wouldn't be 
\emph on
fair
\emph default
.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry stopped scribbling and looked up.
 His face had an angry expression.
 “Your father never told you that life isn't fair?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Father had said that every single time Draco used the word.
 “But, but, it's too awful to believe that 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Draco, let me introduce you to something I call the Litany of Tarski.
 It changes every time you use it.
 On this occasion it runs like so: 
\emph on
If magic is fading out of the world, I want to believe that magic is fading
 out of the world.
 If magic is not fading out of the world, I want not to believe that magic
 is fading out of the world.
 Let me not become attached to beliefs I may not want.

\emph default
 If we're living in a world where magic is fading, 
\emph on
that's what we have to believe,
\emph default
 we have to know what's coming, so we can stop it, or in the very worst
 case, be prepared to do what we can in the time we have left.
 Not believing it won't stop it from happening.
 So the 
\emph on
only
\emph default
 question we have to ask is whether magic is 
\emph on
actually
\emph default
 fading, and if that's the world we live in then that's what we want to
 believe.
 Litany of Gendlin: 
\emph on
What's true is already so, owning up to it doesn't make it worse.

\emph default
 Got that, Draco? I'm going to make you memorize it later.
 It's something you repeat to yourself any time you start wondering if it's
 a good idea to believe something that isn't actually true.
 In fact I want you to say it right now.
 
\emph on
What's true is already so, owning up to it doesn't make it worse.

\emph default
 Say it.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What's true is already so,” repeated Draco, his voice trembling, “owning
 up to it doesn't make it worse.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“If magic is fading, I want to believe that magic is fading.
 If magic is not fading, I want not to believe that magic is fading.
 Say it.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco repeated back the words, the sickness churning in his stomach.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Good,” Harry said, “remember, it might 
\emph on
not
\emph default
 be happening, and then you won't have to believe it, either.
 
\emph on
First
\emph default
 we just want to know what's actually going on, which world we actually
 live in.” Harry turned back to his work, scribbled some more, and then turned
 the parchment so Draco could see it.
 Draco leaned over the desk and Harry brought the green light closer.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
\bar under
Observation:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
Wizardry isn't as powerful now as it was when Hogwarts was founded.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
\bar under
Hypotheses:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
1.
 Magic itself is fading.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
2.
 Wizards are interbreeding with Muggles and Squibs.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
3.
 Knowledge to cast powerful spells is being lost.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
4.
 Wizards are eating the wrong foods as children, or something else besides
 blood is making them grow up weaker.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
5.
 Muggle technology is interfering with magic.
 (Since 800 years ago?)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
6.
 Stronger wizards are having fewer children.
 (Draco = only child? Check if 3 powerful wizards, Quirrell / Dumbledore
 / Dark Lord, had any children.)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
\bar under
Tests:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“All right,” Harry said.
 His breathing sounded a little calmer.
 “Now when you're dealing with a confusing problem and you have no idea
 what's going on, the smart thing to do is figure out some really simple
 tests, things you can look at right away.
 We need fast tests that distinguish between these hypotheses.
 Observations that would come out a different way for at least one of them
 compared to all the other ones.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco stared at the list in shock.
 He was suddenly realizing that he knew an awful lot of purebloods who were
 only children.
 Himself, Vincent, Gregory, practically 
\emph on
everyone.

\emph default
 The two most powerful wizards everyone talked about were Dumbledore and
 the Dark Lord and neither had any children just like Harry had suspected…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“It's going to be really hard to distinguish between 2 and 6,” Harry said,
 “it's in the blood either way, you'd have to try and track the decline
 of wizardry and compare that to how many kids different wizards were having
 and measure the abilities of Muggleborns compared to purebloods…” Harry's
 fingers were tapping nervously on the desk.
 “Let's just lump 6 in with 2 and call them the blood hypothesis for now.
 4 is unlikely because then everyone would notice a sudden drop when the
 wizards switched to new foods, it's hard to see what would've changed steadily
 over 800 years.
 5 is unlikely for the same reason, no sudden drop, Muggles weren't doing
 anything 800 years back.
 4 looks like 2 and 5 looks like 1 anyway.
 So mainly we should be trying to distinguish between 1, 2, and 3.” Harry
 turned the parchment to himself, drew an ellipse around those three numbers,
 turned it back.
 “Magic is fading, blood is weakening, knowledge is disappearing.
 What test comes out differently depending on which of those is true? What
 could we see that would mean any one of these was false?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
I
\emph default
 don't know!” blurted Draco.
 “Why are you asking me? You're the scientist!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Draco,” Harry said, a note of pleading desperation in his voice, “I only
 know what Muggle scientists know! You grew up in the wizarding world, I
 didn't! You know more magic than I do and you know more 
\emph on
about
\emph default
 magic than I do and you thought of this whole idea in the first place,
 so start thinking like a scientist and solve this!”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco swallowed hard and stared at the paper.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Magic is fading… wizards are interbreeding with Muggles… knowledge is being
 lost…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What does the world look like if magic is fading?” said Harry Potter.
 “You know more about magic, you should be the one guessing not me! Imagine
 you're telling a story about it, what happens in the story?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco imagined it.
 “Charms that used to work stop working.” 
\emph on
Wizards wake up and find that their wands are sticks of wood…
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What does the world look like if the wizarding blood gets weaker?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“People can't do things their ancestors could do.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What does the world look like if knowledge is being lost?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“People don't know how to cast the Charms in the first place…” said Draco.
 He stopped, surprised at himself.
 “That's a test, isn't it?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry nodded decisively.
 “That's one.” He wrote it down on the parchment under 
\emph on
Tests:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
A.
 Are there spells we know but can't cast (1 or 2) or are the lost spells
 no longer known (3)?
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“So that distinguishes between 1 and 2 on the one hand, and 3 on the other
 hand,” said Harry.
 “Now we need some way to distinguish between 1 and 2.
 Magic fading, blood weakening, how could we tell the difference?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“What kind of Charms did students used to cast in their first year at Hogwarts?”
 said Draco.
 “If they used to be able to cast much more powerful Charms, the blood was
 stronger 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter shook his head.
 “Or magic itself was stronger.
 We have to figure out some way of telling the 
\emph on
difference.
\emph default
” Harry stood up from his chair, began pacing nervously through the classroom.
 “No, wait, that might still work.
 Suppose different spells use up different amounts of magical energy.
 Then if the ambient magic weakened, the powerful spells would die first,
 but the spells everyone learns in their first year would stay the same…”
 Harry's nervous pacing sped up.
 “It's not a very good test, it's more about powerful wizardry being lost
 versus all wizardry being lost, someone's blood could be too weak for powerful
 wizardry but strong enough for easy spells… Draco, do you know if more
 powerful wizards within a 
\emph on
single
\emph default
 era, like powerful wizards from just this century, are more powerful as
 children? If the Dark Lord had cast the Cooling Charm when he was eleven,
 could he have frozen the whole room?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco's face screwed up as he tried to recollect.
 “I can't remember hearing anything about the Dark Lord but I think Dumbledore's
 supposed to have done something amazing on his Transfiguration O.W.L.s in
 fifth year… I think other powerful wizards were good in Hogwarts too…”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Harry scowled, still pacing.
 “They could just be studying hard.
 Still, if first-year students learned the same spells and seemed about
 as powerful then as now, we could call that 
\emph on
weak
\emph default
 evidence favoring 1 over 2… wait, hold on.” Harry stopped where he stood.
 “I have another test that might distinguish between 1 and 2.
 It would take a while to explain, it uses some things that scientists know
 about blood and inheritance, but it's an easy question to ask.
 And if we 
\emph on
combine
\emph default
 my test and your test and they both come out the same way, that's a strong
 hint at the answer.” Harry almost ran back to the desk, took the parchment
 and wrote:
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
B.
 Did ancient first-year students cast the same sort of spells, with the
 same power, as now? (Weak evidence for 1 over 2, but blood could also be
 losing powerful wizardry only.)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Quote

\emph on
C.
 Additional test that distinguishes 1 and 2 using scientific knowledge of
 blood, will explain later.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Okay,” said Harry, “we can at least try to tell the difference between
 1 and 2 and 3, so let's go with this right away, we can figure out 
\emph on
more
\emph default
 tests after we do the ones we already have.
 Now it's going to look a little odd if Draco Malfoy and Harry Potter go
 around asking questions together, so here's my idea.
 You'll go through Hogwarts and find old portraits and ask them about what
 spells they learned to cast during their first years.
 They're portraits so they won't know there's anything odd about Draco Malfoy
 doing that.
 I'll ask recent portraits and living people about spells we know but can't
 cast, no one will notice anything unusual if Harry Potter asks weird questions.
 And I'll have to do complicated research about forgotten spells, so I want
 you to be the one to gather the data I need for my own scientific question.
 It's a simple question and you should be able to find the answer by asking
 portraits.
 You might want to write this down, ready?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco sat down again and scrabbled in his bookbag for parchment and quill.
 When it was laid down on the desk, Draco looked up, face determined.
 “Go ahead.”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Find portraits who knew a married Squib couple 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

 don't make that face, Draco, it's important information.
 Just ask recent portraits who are Gryffindors or something.
 Find portraits who knew a married Squib couple well enough to know the
 names of all their children.
 Write down the name of each child and whether that child was a wizard,
 a Squib, or a Muggle.
 If they don't know whether the child was a Squib or a Muggle, write down
 `non-wizard'.
 Write that down for 
\emph on
every
\emph default
 child the couple had, don't leave any out.
 If the portrait only knows the name of the wizarding children, not the
 names of 
\emph on
all
\emph default
 the children, then don't write down 
\emph on
any
\emph default
 data from that couple.
 It's very important that you only bring me data from someone who knows
 
\emph on
all
\emph default
 the children a Squib couple had, well enough to know them all by name.
 Try to get at least forty names total, if you can, and if you have time
 for more, even better.
 Have you got all that?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Repeat it,” Draco said, when he was done writing, and Harry repeated
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset

it.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“I've got it,” Draco said, “but why 
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout

--
\end_layout

\end_inset

”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“It has to do with one of the secrets of blood that scientists already discovere
d.
 I'll explain when you get back.
 Let's split up and meet back here in an hour, 6:22pm that should be.
 Are we ready to go?”
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco nodded decisively.
 It was all very rushed, but he'd long since been taught how to rush.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
“Then 
\emph on
go!
\emph default
” said Harry Potter and yanked off his cowled cloak and shoved it into his
 pouch, which began eating it, and, without even waiting for his pouch to
 finish, spun around and began striding rapidly toward the classroom door,
 bumping into a desk and almost falling over in his haste.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
By the time Draco had managed to get his own cloak off and stow it in his
 bookbag, Harry Potter was gone.
\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
Draco almost ran out the door.
\end_layout

\end_body
\end_document