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023.lyx
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#LyX 2.0 created this file. For more info see http://www.lyx.org/
\lyxformat 413
\begin_document
\begin_header
\textclass memoir
\use_default_options true
\master hpmor_volume1_16x23.lyx
\begin_modules
theorems-ams
eqs-within-sections
figs-within-sections
initials
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\paperorientation portrait
\suppress_date true
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\index Index
\shortcut idx
\color #008000
\end_index
\paperwidth 8.25in
\paperheight 10.75in
\leftmargin 0.5in
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\secnumdepth 3
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\paragraph_separation indent
\paragraph_indentation default
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\end_header
\begin_body
\begin_layout Chapter
Belief in Belief
\end_layout
\begin_layout Initial
\begin_inset Argument
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
“A
\end_layout
\end_inset
nd
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
}
\end_layout
\end_inset
then Janet was a Squib,” said the portrait of a short young woman with
a gold-trimmed hat.
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
{
\end_layout
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco wrote it down.
That was only twenty-eight but it was time to go back and meet Harry.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
He'd needed to ask other portraits to help translating, English had changed
a lot, but the oldest portraits had described first-year spells that sounded
an awful lot like the ones they had now.
Draco had recognized around half of them and the other half didn't sound
any more powerful.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
The sick feeling in his stomach had grown with each answer until finally,
unable to take it any more, he'd gone off and asked other portraits Harry
Potter's strange question about Squib marriages, instead.
The first five portraits hadn't known anyone and finally he'd asked those
portraits to ask
\emph on
their
\emph default
acquaintances to ask
\emph on
their
\emph default
acquaintances and so managed to find some people who'd actually admit to
being friends with Squibs.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
(The first-year Slytherin had explained he was working on an important project
with a Ravenclaw and the Ravenclaw had told him they needed this information
and then run off without saying why.
This had garnered many sympathetic looks.)
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco's feet were heavy as he walked through the corridors of Hogwarts.
He should have been running but he couldn't seem to muster the energy.
He kept on thinking that he didn't want to know about this, he didn't want
to be involved in any of this, he didn't want this to be his responsibility,
just let Harry Potter do it, if magic was fading let Harry Potter take
care of it…
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
But Draco knew that wasn't right.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Chill the dungeons of Slytherin, gray the stone walls, Draco usually liked
the atmosphere, but now it seemed too much like fading.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
His hand on the doorknob, Harry Potter already inside and waiting, wearing
his cowled cloak.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“The ancient first-year spells,” Harry Potter said.
“What did you find?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“They're no more powerful than the spells we use now.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter's fist struck a desk, hard.
“Damn it.
All right.
My own experiment was a failure, Draco.
There's something called the Interdict of Merlin
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset
--”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco hit himself on the forehead, realizing.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“--
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset
which stops anyone from getting knowledge of powerful spells out of books,
even if you find and read a powerful wizard's notes they won't make sense
to you, it has to go from one living mind to another.
I couldn't find any powerful spells that we had the instructions for but
couldn't cast.
But if you can't get them out of old books, why would anyone bother passing
them on by word of mouth after they stopped working? Did you get the data
on the Squib couples?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco started to hand the parchment over
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset
--
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
But Harry Potter held up a hand.
“Law of science, Draco.
First I tell you the theory and the prediction.
Then you show me the data.
That way you know I'm not just making up a theory to fit; you know that
the theory actually predicted the data in
\emph on
advance.
\emph default
I have to explain this to you anyway, so I have to explain it
\emph on
before
\emph default
you show me the data.
That's the rule.
So put on your cloak and let's sit down.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter sat down at a desk with torn scraps of paper arranged across
its surface.
Draco drew his cloak out of his bookbag, drew it on, and sat down across
from Harry on the other side, giving the paper scraps a puzzled look.
They were arranged in two rows and the rows were about twenty scraps long.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“The secret of blood,” said Harry Potter, an intense look on his face, “is
something called deoxyribose nucleic acid.
You don't say that name in front of anyone who's not a scientist.
Deoxyribose nucleic acid is the recipe that tells your body how to grow,
two legs, two arms, short or tall, whether you have brown eyes or green.
It's a material thing, you can
\emph on
see
\emph default
it if you have microscopes, which are like telescopes only they look at
things that are very small instead of very far away.
And that recipe has two copies of everything, always, in case one copy
is broken.
Imagine two long rows of pieces of paper.
At each place in the row, there are two pieces of paper, and when you have
children, your body selects one piece of paper at random from each place
in the row, and the mother's body will do the same, and so the child also
gets two pieces of paper at each place in the row.
Two copies of everything, one from your mother, one from your father, and
when you have children they get one piece of paper from you at random in
each place.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
As Harry spoke, his fingers ranged over the paired scraps of paper, pointing
to one part of the pair when he said “from your mother”, the other when
he said “from your father”.
And as Harry talked about picking a piece of paper at random, his hand
pulled a Knut out of his robes and flipped it; Harry looked at the coin,
and then pointed to the top piece of paper.
All without a pause in the speech.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Now when it comes to something like being short or tall, there's a
\emph on
lot
\emph default
of places in the recipe that make
\emph on
little
\emph default
differences.
So if a tall father marries a short mother, the child gets some pieces
of paper saying `tall' and some pieces of paper saying `short', and usually
the child ends up middle-sized.
But not always.
By luck, the child might get a lot of pieces saying `tall', and not many
papers saying `short', and grow up pretty tall.
You could have a tall father with five papers saying `tall' and a tall
mother with five papers saying `tall' and by amazing luck the child gets
\emph on
all ten
\emph default
papers saying `tall' and ends up taller than both of them.
You see? Blood isn't a perfect fluid, it doesn't mix perfectly.
Deoxyribose nucleic acid is made up of lots of little pieces, like a glass
of pebbles instead of a glass of water.
That's why a child isn't always exactly in the middle of the parents.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco listened with his mouth open.
How in Merlin's name had the Muggles figured all this out? They could
\emph on
see
\emph default
the recipe?
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Now,” Harry Potter said, “suppose that, just like with tallness, there's
lots of little places in the recipe where you can have a piece of paper
that says `magic' or `not magic'.
If you have enough pieces of paper saying `magic' you're a wizard, if you
have a
\emph on
lot
\emph default
of pieces of paper you're a powerful wizard, if you have too few you're
a Muggle, and in between you're a Squib.
Then, when two Squibs marry, most of the time the children should also
be Squibs, but once in a while a child will get lucky and get most of the
father's magic papers
\emph on
and
\emph default
most of the mother's magic papers, and be strong enough to be a wizard.
But probably not a very powerful one.
If you started out with a lot of powerful wizards and they married only
each other, they would stay powerful.
But if they started marrying Muggleborns who were just barely magical,
or Squibs… you see? The blood wouldn't mix perfectly, it would be a glass
of pebbles, not a glass of water, because that's just the way blood works.
There would still be powerful wizards now and then, when they got a lot
of magic papers by luck.
But they wouldn't be as powerful as the most powerful wizards from earlier.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco nodded slowly.
He'd never heard it explained that way before.
There was a surprising beauty to how exactly it fit.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
But,
\emph default
” Harry said.
“That's only
\emph on
one
\emph default
hypothesis.
Suppose that instead there's only a
\emph on
single
\emph default
place in the recipe that makes you a wizard.
Only
\emph on
one
\emph default
place where a piece of paper can say `magic' or `not magic'.
And there are two copies of everything, always.
So then there are only three possibilities.
Both copies can say `magic'.
One copy can say `magic' and one copy can say `not magic'.
Or both copies can say `not magic'.
Wizards, Squibs, and Muggles.
Muggleborns wouldn't really be born to Muggles, they would be born to two
Squibs, two parents each with one magic copy who'd grown up in the Muggle
world.
Now imagine a witch marries a Squib.
Each child will get one paper saying `magic' from the mother, always, it
doesn't matter which piece gets picked at random, both say `magic'.
But like flipping a coin, half the time the child will get a paper saying
`magic' from the father, and half the time the child will get the father's
paper saying `not magic'.
When a witch marries a Squib, the result won't be a lot of weak wizarding
children.
Half the children will be wizards and witches just as powerful as their
mother, and half the children will be Squibs.
Because if there's just
\emph on
one
\emph default
place in the recipe that makes you a wizard, then magic isn't like a glass
of pebbles that can mix.
It's like a single magical pebble, a sorcerer's stone.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry arranged three pairs of papers side by side.
On one pair he wrote `magic' and `magic'.
On another pair he wrote `magic' on the top paper only.
And the third pair he left blank.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“In which case,” Harry said, “either you have two stones or you don't.
Either you're a wizard or not.
Powerful wizards would get that way by studying harder and practicing more.
And if wizards get
\emph on
inherently
\emph default
less powerful, not because of spells being lost but because people can't
cast them… then maybe they're eating the wrong foods or something.
But if it's gotten steadily worse over eight hundred years, then that could
mean magic itself is fading out of the world.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry arranged another two pairs of papers side by side, and took out a
quill.
Soon each pair had one piece of paper saying `magic' and the other paper
blank.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“And that brings me to the prediction,” said Harry.
“What happens when two Squibs marry.
Flip a coin twice.
It can come up heads and heads, heads and tails, tails and heads, or tails
and tails.
So one quarter of the time you'll get two heads, one quarter of the time
you'll get two tails, and half the time you'll get one heads and one tail.
Same thing if two Squibs marry.
One quarter of the children would come up magic and magic, and be wizards.
One quarter would come up not-magic and not-magic, and be Muggles.
The other half would be Squibs.
It's a very old and very classic pattern.
It was discovered by Gregor Mendel who is not forgotten, and it was the
first hint ever uncovered for how the recipe worked.
Anyone who knows anything about blood science would recognize that pattern
in an instant.
It wouldn't be exact, any more than if you flip a coin twice forty times
you'll always get exactly ten pairs of two heads.
But if it's seven or thirteen wizards out of forty children that'll be
a strong indicator.
That's the test I had you do.
Now let's see your data.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
And before Draco could even think, Harry Potter had taken the parchment
out of Draco's hand.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco's throat was very dry.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Twenty-eight children.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
He wasn't sure of the exact number but he was pretty sure around a fourth
had been wizards.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Six wizards out of twenty-eight children,” Harry Potter said after a moment.
“Well, that's that, then.
And first-years were casting the same spells at the same power level eight
centuries ago, too.
Your test and my test both came out the same way.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
There was a long silence in the classroom.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“What now?” Draco whispered.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
He'd never been so terrified.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“It's not definite yet,” said Harry Potter.
“My experiment failed, remember? I need you to design another test, Draco.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“I, I…” Draco said.
His voice was breaking.
“I can't do this Harry, it's too much for me.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry's look was fierce.
“Yes you can, because you have to.
I thought about it myself, too, after I found out about the Interdict of
Merlin.
Draco, is there any way of observing the strength of magic directly? Some
way that doesn't have anything to do with wizards' blood or the spells
we learn?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco's mind was just blank.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Anything that affects magic affects wizards,” said Harry.
“But then we can't tell if it's the wizards or the magic.
What does magic affect that
\emph on
isn't
\emph default
a wizard?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Magical creatures, obviously,” said Draco without even thinking about
\begin_inset space ~
\end_inset
it.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter slowly smiled.
“Draco, that's
\emph on
brilliant.
\emph default
\begin_inset Quotes erd
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
\emph on
It's the sort of dumb question you'd only ask in the first place if you'd
been raised by Muggles.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Then the sickness in Draco's stomach got even worse as he realized what
it would mean if magical creatures
\emph on
were
\emph default
getting weaker.
They would know for certain then that magic was fading, and there was a
part of Draco that was already sure that was exactly what they would find.
He didn't want to see this, he didn't want to know…
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter was already halfway to the door.
“Come
\emph on
on
\emph default
, Draco! There's a portrait not far from here, we'll just ask them to go
get someone old and find out right away! We're cloaked, if someone sees
us we can just run away! Let's go!”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\align center
\begin_inset Graphics
filename fleur.png
scale 50
\end_inset
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
It didn't take long after that.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
It was a wide portrait, but the three people in it were looking rather crowded.
There was a middle-aged man from the twelfth century, dressed in black
swathes of cloth; who spoke to a sad-looking young woman from the fourteenth
century, with hair that seemed to constantly frizz about her head as if
she'd been charged up by a static spell; and she spoke to a dignified,
wizened old man from the seventeenth century with a solid gold bowtie;
and him they could understand.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
They had asked about Dementors.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
They had asked about phoenixes.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
They had asked about dragons and trolls and house elves.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry had frowned, pointed out that creatures which needed the most magic
could just be dying out entirely, and had asked for the most powerful magical
creatures known.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
There wasn't anything unfamiliar on the list, except for a species of Dark
creature called mind flayers which the translator noted had finally been
exterminated by Harold Shea, and those didn't sound half as scary as Dementors.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Magical creatures were as powerful now as they'd ever been, apparently.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
The sickness in Draco's stomach was easing, and now he just felt confused.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Harry,” Draco said in the middle of the old man translating a list of all
eleven powers of a beholder's eyes, “what does this mean?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry held up a finger and the old man finished the list.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Then Harry thanked all the portraits for helping
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
Draco, pretty much on automatic, did so as well and more graciously
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
and they headed back to the classroom.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
And Harry brought out the original parchment with the hypotheses, and began
scribbling.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
\bar under
Observation:
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
Wizardry isn't as powerful now as it was when Hogwarts was founded.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
\bar under
Hypotheses:
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
\bar under
1
\bar default
.
Magic itself is fading.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
\bar under
2
\bar default
.
Wizards are interbreeding with Muggles and Squibs.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
\bar under
3
\bar default
.
Knowledge to cast powerful spells is being lost.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
4.
Wizards are eating the wrong foods as children, or something else besides
blood is making them grow up weaker.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
5.
Muggle technology is interfering with magic.
(Since 800 years ago?)
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
6.
Stronger wizards are having fewer children.
(Draco = only child? Check if 3 powerful wizards, Quirrell / Dumbledore
/ Dark Lord, had any children.)
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
\bar under
Tests:
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
A.
Are there spells we know but can't cast (1 or 2) or are the lost spells
no longer known (3)?
\bar under
Result
\bar default
: Inconclusive due to Interdict of Merlin.
No known uncastable spell, but could simply have not been passed on.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
B.
Did ancient first-year students cast the same sort of spells, with the
same power, as now? (Weak evidence for 1 over 2, but blood could also be
losing powerful wizardry only.)
\bar under
Result
\bar default
: Same level of first-year spells then as now.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
C.
Additional test that distinguishes 1 and 2 using scientific knowledge of
blood, will explain later.
\bar under
Result
\bar default
: There's only one place in the recipe that makes you a wizard, and either
you have two papers saying `magic' or you don't.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Quote
\emph on
D.
Are magical creatures losing their powers? Distinguishes 1 from (2 or 3).
\bar under
Result
\bar default
: Magical creatures seem to be as strong as they ever were.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“A failed,” said Harry Potter.
“B is weak evidence for 1 over 2.
C falsifies 2.
D falsifies 1.
4 was unlikely and B argues against 4 as well.
5 was unlikely and D argues against it.
6 is falsified along with 2.
That leaves 3.
Interdict of Merlin or not, I didn't actually find any known spell that
couldn't be cast.
So when you add it all up, it looks like knowledge is being lost.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
And the trap snapped shut.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
As soon as the panic went away, as soon as Draco understood that magic
\emph on
wasn't
\emph default
fading out, it took all of five seconds to realize.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco shoved himself away from the desk and stood up so hard that his chair
skittered with a scraping noise across the floor and fell over.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“So it was all just a stupid trick, then.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Harry Potter stared at him for a moment, still sitting.
When he spoke, his voice was quiet.
“It was a fair test, Draco.
If it had come out a different way, I would have accepted it.
That's not something I would ever cheat on.
Ever.
I didn't look at your data before I made my predictions.
I told you up front when the Interdict of Merlin invalidated the first
experiment
\begin_inset ERT
status open
\begin_layout Plain Layout
--
\end_layout
\end_inset
”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Oh,” Draco said, the anger starting to come out into his voice, “you didn't
know how the whole thing was going to come out?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“I didn't
\emph on
know
\emph default
anything you didn't know,” Harry said, still quietly.
“I admit that I suspected.
Hermione Granger was too powerful, she should have been barely magical
and she wasn't, how can a Muggleborn be the best spellcaster in Hogwarts?
And she's getting the best grades on her essays too, it's too much coincidence
for one girl to be the strongest magically
\emph on
and
\emph default
academically unless there's a single cause.
Hermione Granger's existence pointed to there being only one thing that
makes you a wizard, something you either have or you don't, and the power
differences coming from how much we know and how much we practice.
And there weren't different classes for purebloods and Muggleborns, and
so on.
There were too many ways the world didn't look the way it would look if
you were right.
But Draco, I didn't see anything you couldn't see too.
I didn't perform any tests I didn't tell you about.
I didn't cheat, Draco.
I wanted us to work out the answer together.
And I never thought that magic might be fading out of the world until you
said it.
It was a scary idea for me, too.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Whatever,” Draco said.
He was working very hard to control his voice and not just start screaming
at Harry.
“You claim you're not going to run off and tell anyone else about this.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Not without consulting you first,” Harry said.
He opened his hands in a pleading gesture.
“Draco, I'm being as nice as I can but
\emph on
the world turned out to just not be that way
\emph default
.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Fine.
Then you and I are through.
I'm going to just walk away and forget any of this ever happened.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco spun around, feeling the burning sensation in his throat, the sense
of betrayal, and that was when he realized he really
\emph on
had
\emph default
liked Harry Potter, and that thought didn't slow him down for a moment
as he strode toward the classroom door.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
And Harry Potter's voice came, now louder, and worried:
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“Draco… you
\emph on
can't
\emph default
forget.
Don't you understand? That was your sacrifice.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
Draco stopped in midstride and turned around.
“
\emph on
What
\emph default
are you talking about?”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
But there was already a freezing coldness in Draco's spine.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
He knew even before Harry Potter said it.
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“To become a scientist.
You questioned one of your beliefs, not just a small belief but something
that had great significance to you.
You did experiments, gathered data, and the outcome proved the belief was
wrong.
You saw the results and understood what they meant.” Harry Potter's voice
was faltering.
“Remember, Draco, you can't sacrifice a
\emph on
true
\emph default
belief that way, because the experiments will confirm it instead of falsifying
it.
Your sacrifice to become a scientist was your
\emph on
false
\emph default
belief that wizard blood was mixing and getting weaker.”
\end_layout
\begin_layout Standard
“
\emph on
That's not true!
\emph default
” said Draco.
“I didn't sacrifice the belief.