Merge pull request #223 from ModelMirrorAI/predict/scotus-1001131-evt-petition-disposition-codex-baseline-20260628T172552Z

predict(codex-baseline): scotus/1001131 — evt-petition-disposition

Author: modelmirror

data/cases/scotus/1001131/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260628T172552Z/prediction.json

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+{
+  "case_id": "scotus/1001131",
+  "confidence": 0.64,
+  "created_at": "2026-06-28T17:27:53.877824Z",
+  "engine": "codex",
+  "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition",
+  "granted": 0,
+  "input_snapshot": "data/cases/scotus/1001131/record/snapshots/2026-06-28.json",
+  "model": null,
+  "predicted_disposition": "denied",
+  "predictor_id": "codex-baseline",
+  "probability": 0.02,
+  "reasoning_doc": "reasoning.md",
+  "run_id": "20260628T172552Z",
+  "schema_version": "1.0",
+  "votes": []
+}

data/cases/scotus/1001131/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260628T172552Z/reasoning.md

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+# Prediction reasoning
+
+## Legal question
+
+The event asks for the disposition of the petition in `Hearn v. Texas`, Supreme
+Court docket `01-7534`, on review from the Court of Criminal Appeals of Texas.
+I interpret `granted` as the Court granting the petition for certiorari or
+otherwise granting equivalent petition relief.
+
+## Governing standard
+
+Supreme Court certiorari review is discretionary. A petition is ordinarily
+granted only when the case presents a significant federal question, an important
+conflict among courts, or another special reason for the Court's intervention.
+The baseline disposition for a petition is therefore denial unless the snapshot
+shows concrete indicators of grant-worthy posture.
+
+## Snapshot facts used
+
+The input snapshot used was
+`data/cases/scotus/1001131/record/snapshots/2026-06-28.json`.
+
+The snapshot identifies the case as `Yokamon Laneal Hearn v. Texas`, filed in
+the Supreme Court on `2002-01-07`, with docket number `01-7534`. It shows the
+appeal-from court as the Court of Criminal Appeals of Texas. The snapshot has no
+docket entries, no argument date, no termination date, no panel, and both
+`date_cert_granted` and `date_cert_denied` are null. The event definition marks
+the petition disposition as unresolved.
+
+## Prediction
+
+I predict the petition will be denied. The snapshot does not provide a merits
+grant signal, argument setting, order history, relist information, dissent from
+denial, or any docket entry suggesting that certiorari was granted. Given the
+ordinary Supreme Court petition base rate and the absence of case-specific
+grant indicators in the snapshot, denial is the conservative prediction.
+
+I assign `P(granted) = 0.02`. The confidence is moderate rather than high
+because the snapshot is sparse and lacks docket entries; the low grant
+probability is driven mainly by the certiorari baseline and the lack of
+affirmative grant evidence, not by a detailed merits record.
+
+No per-justice votes are predicted because the snapshot does not identify votes
+or a merits panel, and certiorari votes are generally not fully disclosed.

data/cases/scotus/1001131/events/evt-petition-disposition/predictions/codex-baseline/20260628T172552Z/usage.json

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+{
+  "actor_id": "codex-baseline",
+  "cache_creation_input_tokens": 0,
+  "cache_read_input_tokens": 415744,
+  "case_id": "scotus/1001131",
+  "created_at": "2026-06-28T17:25:52Z",
+  "engine": "codex",
+  "estimated_cost_usd": 0.592657,
+  "event_id": "evt-petition-disposition",
+  "input_tokens": 31525,
+  "model": "gpt-5.5",
+  "output_tokens": 7572,
+  "role": "predictor",
+  "run_id": "20260628T172552Z",
+  "schema_version": "1.0"
+}