From 9fd731b528b950030c3b303a0e51e19b87a6e37a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 4 Oct 2026 15:00:43 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/7] Flag the replay's weakly identified matches and reset-off misses in the paper The replay paragraph now says that 34 of the 230 moved matches, 19 of them above the threshold, are weakly identified. In each, the issued benefit is the maximum allotment and the solver lowered an income. Every income at or below break-even yields the maximum, so these matches do not pin the income down. It also adds a sixth cause to the account of non-reproduced cases. In 6, the $3 steps reached within $3 of the issued benefit, and the utility reset then moved the input off that match. New FACTS rows D5 and D6 record both, and test_retired_claims.py locks the sentences against claims_audit.json (from #96). The paper is re-rendered. Revision 10 is not yet published, so it keeps its number; its date and the wrapper's cache key move to 2026-10-04. The abstract is unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/public/paper/index.html | 10 ++-- app/public/paper/web/index.html | 14 +++--- app/public/paper/web/index.pdf | Bin 214069 -> 214845 bytes paper/FACTS.md | 2 + paper/index.qmd | 12 +++-- tests/test_retired_claims.py | 78 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 6 files changed, 101 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/public/paper/index.html b/app/public/paper/index.html index 506aae1..55fd83f 100644 --- a/app/public/paper/index.html +++ b/app/public/paper/index.html @@ -76,7 +76,7 @@

Administrative quality control data as an oracle

failures, and the fiscal 2025 rates landing where the sampling-noise mechanism says realized years should: 18 of 53 jurisdictions changed cost-share tiers, only 7 of those changes beyond two-year sampling - noise. This page embeds revision 10 (2026-10-03), which corrects how + noise. This page embeds revision 10 (2026-10-04), which corrects how revision 9 described the QC file's computed benefit and the Colorado error-case replay, adds Colorado's fiscal 2025 rate beside its fiscal 2024 margin, and withdraws a claim of errata in the federal technical @@ -86,18 +86,18 @@

Administrative quality control data as an oracle

official-vs-file wedge decomposition, and the pre-registered model-repair experiments.

- Revision 10 · 2026-10-03 · Max Ghenis, PolicyEngine + Revision 10 · 2026-10-04 · Max Ghenis, PolicyEngine
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