How to read analysis results

Analysis results can be of two types: Evidences or Distributions, depending on the kind of models that have been used in the risk configuration.

Evidence

An Evidence is a couple of values: positive evidence of risk and negative evidence of risk. Evidences are represented graphically as in this figure:

The graphical picture summarizes some conclusions that can be inferred from the two Evidence values:

• The red area in the right part indicates the evidence of risk
• The green area in the left part indicates the absence of risk
• The white arrow indicates the risk exposure, calculated as green - red (i.e., it says if overall there is a tendency towards a positive or negative evidence of risk)

Distribution

A Distribution is a sorted set of probabilities, whose sum is always 1. Distributions are represented graphically with a sequence of colored bars, as in this figure:

Each bar in the figure represents the probability that the value is in the range of the corresponding state.