VotingModel.nlogo

extensions [gis rnd]
globals [ US state-list electoral-list GOP-votes Demos-votes ]

patches-own [statename GOP-count Demos-count]
turtles-own [state media media-value ur ur-value vote vote-value total any-votes-changed? previous-vote]


;; import the u.s. shapefile which only inclduing the electoral states but missing Alaska, District of Columbia, and Hawaii. The total electoral votes are 528 instead of 538.
to drawing
  ;;Load GIS into NetLogo for visualization
  clear-all
  ask patches [set pcolor white]

  gis:load-coordinate-system (word "Data/us_state.prj")
  set US gis:load-dataset "Data/us_state.shp"

  gis:set-world-envelope (gis:envelope-of US)
  gis:apply-coverage US "STUSPS" statename

  gis:set-drawing-color brown
  gis:draw US 1
end

;; create turtles and setup turtles' attribtues such as state, media, media-value, ur, ur-value, vote, vote-value, and total
to setup
  clear-turtles

  sprout-turtles
  setup-states
  setup-media
  setup-ur
  setup-votes

  reset-ticks
end

to go
  let previous-voters count turtles with [any-votes-changed? = true]

  check-neighbors
  check-previous
  change-votes

  let after-voters count turtles with [any-votes-changed? = true]

  if (previous-voters = after-voters) [stop]

  tick
end

to check-neighbors
  ;; use two mode neighbors and neighbors4 to ask turtles, so all turtles compute "total"
  ask turtles [
    if neighbor-mode = "neighbors"
    [set total (sum [vote-value] of turtles-on neighbors)]
    if neighbor-mode = "neighbors4"
    [set total (sum [vote-value] of turtles-on neighbors4)]
  ]
end

to check-previous
  ;; keep track of whether any patch has changed their vote
  ask turtles [
    set any-votes-changed? false
    set previous-vote vote-value
  ]
end

to change-votes
  ask turtles [
    if (total > 0) [ set vote-value 2 ]
    if (total < 0) [ set vote-value -2 ]
    if (vote-value != previous-vote) [ set any-votes-changed? true ]
    color-turtles
  ]
end


to sprout-turtles
  set state-list ["AL"	"AR"	"AZ"	"CA"	"CO"	"CT"	"DE"	"FL"	"GA"	"IA"	"ID"	"IL"	"IN"	"KS"	"KY"	"LA"	"MA"	"MD"	"ME"	"MI"	"MN"	"MO"	"MS"	"MT"	"NC"	
    "ND"	"NE"	"NH"	"NJ"	"NM"	"NV"	"NY"	"OH"	"OK"	"OR"	"PA"	"RI"	"SC"	"SD"	"TN"	"TX"	"UT"	"VA"	"VT"	"WA"	"WI"	"WV"	"WY"]

  ;; iterate the state-list by asking every path in that state to create 1 turtle
  let i 0
  while [i < 48] [
    let name item i state-list
    ask patches with [statename = name] [sprout 1]

    ask turtles [
      set shape "person"
    ]
    set i i + 1
  ]
end

to setup-states
  ;; GOP-states meaning the states are controlled by Republican
  let GOP-states ["AL"	"AR"	"AZ"	"ID"	"IN"	"KS" "KY"	"LA"	"MS"	"MT"	"ND"	"NE"	"OK"	"SC"	"SD"	"TN"	"TX"	"UT"	"WV"	"WY"]

  ;; Demos-states meaning the states are controlled by Democratic
  let Dems-states ["CA"	"CT" "DE"	"IL"	"MA"	"MD"	"ME"	"NJ"	"NM"	"NY"	"OR"	"RI"	"VT"	"WA"]

  ;; swing-states meaning the states that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican
  let swing-states ["CO"	"FL"	"GA"	"IA"	"MI"	"MN"	"MO"	"NC"	"NH"	"NV"	"OH"	"PA"	"VA"	"WI"]

  ;; if turtles locate in GOP-states, ask the number of turtles which was equal to total state population times state-efficiency to set state as 1, and the rest of turtles to set state as -1
  let i 0
  while [i < 20] [
    let name item i GOP-states
    let turtles-state turtles-on patches with [statename = name]
    let turtles-number count turtles-state

    ask n-of (turtles-number * state-efficiency) turtles-state [set state 1]
    ask turtles-state with [state = 0] [set state -1]
    set i i + 1
  ]

  ;; if turtles locate in Demos-states, ask the number of turtles which was equal to total state population times state-efficiency to set state as -1, and the rest of turtles to set state as 1
  let j 0
  while [j < 14] [
    let name item j Dems-states
    let turtles-state turtles-on patches with [statename = name]
    let turtles-number count turtles-state

    ask n-of (turtles-number * state-efficiency) turtles-state [set state -1]
    ask turtles-state with [state = 0] [set state 1]
    set j j + 1
  ]

  ;; if turtles locate in swing-states, ask a half of state population to set state as 1, and the rest of turtles to set state as -1
  let k 0
  while [k < 14] [
    let name item k swing-states
    let turtles-state turtles-on patches with [statename = name]
    let turtles-number count turtles-state

    ask n-of (turtles-number * 0.5) turtles-state [set state 1]
    ask turtles-state with [state = 0] [set state -1]
    set k k + 1
  ]
end

to setup-media
  ;; create a media list which includes the name of 50 local newspapers
  let media-list ["Akron Beach Journal"	"Albany Times Union"	"Albuquerque Journal"	"Anchorage Daily News"	"Arizona Daily Star"	"Arkansas Democrat-Gazette"	"Atlanta Journal-Constitution"	"Baltimore Sun"	"Baton Rouge Advocate"	"Birmingham News"	"Boston Globe"	
    "Bozeman Daily Chronicle"	"Casper Star-Tribune"	"Charleston Post and Courier"	"Chicago Tribune"	"Dallas Morning News"	"Denver Post"	"Des Moines Register"	"Grand Rapids Press"	"Greensboro News and Record"	"Hartford Courant"	"Honolulu Star-Advertiser"	
    "Idaho Statesman"	"Jackson Clarion-Ledger"	"Kansas City Star"	"Las Vegas Review-Journal"	"Los Angeles Times"	"Louisville Courier-Journal"	"Minneapolis Star Tribune"	"New Hampshire Union Leader"	"Newark Star-Ledger"	"Northwest Indiana Times"	
    "Oklahoman"	"Oregonian"	"Orlando Sentinel"	"Philadelphia Inquirer"	"Providence Journal"	"Richmond Times-Dispatch"	"Rutland Herald"	"Salt Lake Tribune"	"Seattle Times"	"St. Louis Post-Dispatch"	"Sun Journal"	"Tennessean"	"The Bismarck Tribune"	
    "The Delaware Gazette"	"The Omaha Star"	"Times West Virginian"	"True Dakotan"	"Wisconsin State Journal"]

  ;; create a GOP-media list, all the newspaper in the list was sponsored by Republican
  let GOP-media ["Albuquerque Journal"	"Anchorage Daily News"	"Arkansas Democrat-Gazette"	"Atlanta Journal-Constitution"	"Baton Rouge Advocate"	"Birmingham News"	"Bozeman Daily Chronicle"	"Casper Star-Tribune"	"Charleston Post and Courier"	"Idaho Statesman"	
    "Jackson Clarion-Ledger"	"Las Vegas Review-Journal"	"Northwest Indiana Times"	"Oklahoman"	"Providence Journal"	"The Bismarck Tribune"	"The Omaha Star"	"Times West Virginian"	"True Dakotan"]

  ;; create a Demos-media list, all the newspaper in the list was sponsored by Democratic
  let Demos-media ["Akron Beach Journal"	"Albany Times Union"	"Arizona Daily Star"	"Baltimore Sun"	"Boston Globe"	"Chicago Tribune"	"Dallas Morning News"	"Denver Post"	"Des Moines Register"	"Grand Rapids Press"	"Greensboro News and Record"	
    "Hartford Courant"	"Honolulu Star-Advertiser"	"Kansas City Star"	"Los Angeles Times"	"Louisville Courier-Journal"	"Minneapolis Star Tribune"	"New Hampshire Union Leader"	"Newark Star-Ledger"	"Oregonian"	"Orlando Sentinel"	"Philadelphia Inquirer"	
    "Richmond Times-Dispatch"	"Rutland Herald"	"Salt Lake Tribune"	"Seattle Times"	"St. Louis Post-Dispatch"	"Sun Journal"	"Tennessean"	"The Delaware Gazette"	"Wisconsin State Journal"]

  ;; randomly assign a newspaper for turtles
  ask turtles [set media one-of media-list]

  ;; if turtles subscribe for the newspaper which was sponsorsed by Republican, ask the number of turtles which was equal to total subscribers of that newspaper times media-efficiency to set media-value as 1, and the rest of subscribers to set media-value as -1
  let i 0
  while [i < 19] [
    let name item i GOP-media
    let turtles-media turtles with [media = name]
    let turtles-number count turtles-media

    ask n-of (turtles-number * media-efficiency) turtles-media [set media-value 1]
    ask turtles-media with [media-value = 0] [set media-value -1]

    set i i + 1
  ]

  ;; if turtles subscribe for the newspaper which was sponsorsed by Democratic, ask the number of turtles which was equal to total subscribers of that newspaper times media-efficiency to set media-value as 1, and the rest of subscribers to set media-value as -1
  let j 0
  while [j < 31] [
    let name item j Demos-media
    let turtles-media turtles with [media = name]
    let turtles-number count turtles-media

    ask n-of (turtles-number * media-efficiency) turtles-media [set media-value -1]
    ask turtles-media with [media-value = 0] [set media-value 1]
    set j j + 1
  ]
end

to setup-ur
  ;; randomly assign a float value of unemployment rate which follows the poisson distribution
  ask turtles [set ur random-poisson expected-unemployment-rate]

  ;; check the incumbent party is Republican or Democratic, then check the satisfication of economy performance of incumbent party
  ifelse incumbent-party = "GOP"
  [
    ask turtles [
      ifelse ur > national-unemployment-rate
      [set ur-value 1]
      [set ur-value -1]
    ]
  ]
  [
    ask turtles [
      ifelse ur > national-unemployment-rate
      [set ur-value -1]
      [set ur-value 1]
    ]
  ]
end

to setup-votes
  ;; considering all factors which include states, the subscription of newspaper, and economy performance satisfication before making a electoral decision
  ask turtles [
    set vote (state * state-weight + media-value * media-weight + ur-value * ur-weight)

    if vote > 0
    [set vote-value 2]
    if vote < 0
    [set vote-value -2]

    color-turtles
  ]

end

to color-turtles
  ;; ask turtles to set color for their vote decisions
  ifelse vote-value = 2
  [ set color red ]
  [ set color blue ]
end


to count-votes
  set electoral-list [9	6	11 55	9	7	3	29 16 6	4	20 11	6	8	8	11 10	4	16 10	10 6 3 15	3	5	4	14 5 6 29	18 7 7 20	4	9	3	11 38	6	13 3 12 10 5 3]
  set GOP-votes 0
  set Demos-votes 0

  ; ask each state to count the number of red turtles (vote for GOP) and the number of blue turtles (vote for Demos),
  ; if the number of red turtles is greater than the number of blue turtles, set all turtles as red color in that state,
  ; if the number of blue turtles is greater than the number of red turtles, set all turtles as blue color in that state
  let i 0
  while [i < 48] [
    let name item i state-list
    let voters turtles-on patches with [statename = name]
    let GOP count voters with [color = red]
    let Demos count voters with [color = blue]

    ask voters[
      ifelse GOP > Demos
      [set color red]
      [set color blue]
    ]

    let votes count voters with [color = blue]
    let value item i electoral-list

    ifelse (votes = 0)
    [set GOP-votes GOP-votes + value]
    [set Demos-votes Demos-votes + value]

    set i i + 1
  ]
end
@#$#@#$#@
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@#$#@#$#@
## WHAT IS IT?

The data driven model is an extension of voting model from the model libary of Netlogo. It trying to simulate the U.S. presidential election. How voters response to their surrounding neighbors, and how polictical party is senstive to economic, media, and unemployment.

## HOW IT WORKS

Click the drawing button to load the U.S. map into Netlogo.

Click the setup button to ask each patch which statename is not equal to "nan" to create a turtle. Then assign a random value of unemployment rate which follows the possion distribution, assign a value of state based on 

Click GO to run the simulation.

Click count-votes to count the electoral votes for Republican and Democratic. 

## HOW TO USE IT

Adjust the slider parameters and chooser parameters (see below), or use the default settings.
1. Press the drawing button.
2. Press the setup button.
3. Press the go button to begin the simulation.
4. Press the count-votes button to count the electoral votes.
5. Look at the monitors to see the electoral votes won by Republican and the electoral votes won by Democratic.

Parameters: 
incumbent-party: select the incumbent party is Republican or Democratic
neighbor-mode: select turtles containing 8 surrounding neighbors or 4 surrounding neighbors.

state-efficience: measure the vote decision tendency of voters who live in GOP states, Demos states, and swing states.
media-efficience: measure the vote decision tendency of voters who subscriped the newspaper sponsored by Republican and Democratic. 

national-unemployment-rate: the u.s. annual unemployment rate
expected-unemployment-rate: the epexcted unemploymen rate for each voter

GOP electoral votes: count the electoral votes won by Republican
Demos electoral votes: count the electoral votes won by Democratic


## THINGS TO NOTICE

Electoral votes:
Total electoral votes are 528 instead of 538, because the Alaska (3 votes), Washington D.C. (3 votes), and Hawaii (4 votes) are not included in the model.

Parameters:
If the value of state-coefficient is less than 0.5, it means people living in the states commonly won by Republican party probably (with a chance greater than 50%) vote for Democratic party, this is the real case happened in 1960 when Republican won California and Democratic won Texas. If the value of media-coefficient is less than 0.5, it means people who ever subscribed the newspaper sponsorsed by Republican party probably (with a chance greater than 50%) vote for Democratic party, and vice versa. 

Results:
Watch what happens when the neighbor-mode is neighbors or neighbors4? Watch the number of ticks when the model autamatically stop.

Watch what happens when adjusting different weights for state, media, and unemployment. How is the result different?

Watch what happens when the incumbent-party is GOP or Demos? Watch how senstivity of unemployment and media for each party.


## EXTENDING THE MODEL
1.
Generating the population of voters is based on the real demographic data in U.S. not simply ask every patch to gerenate a turtle. 
2.
Trying to compare the current annual unemployment rate to the annual unemployment rate when the incumbent party take over the white house. Considering to use the change in unemploymne rate to measure how the perform of incumbent party in national economy, then compare it to the expected unemployment rate of each voter. 
3.
Adding the presidential term into the model, the first-term and second-term of incumbent party may also influence voting decisions. It has a trend in recent years, each party take over the white house in 8 years or two terms. 

## NETLOGO FEATURES

(interesting or unusual features of NetLogo that the model uses, particularly in the Code tab; or where workarounds were needed for missing features)

## RELATED MODELS

Look at the Voting model from the soical science part of Netlogo model library. 
 
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Polygon -16777216 true false 238 112 252 141 219 141 218 112
Circle -16777216 true false 234 174 42
Rectangle -7500403 true true 181 185 214 194
Circle -16777216 true false 144 174 42
Circle -16777216 true false 24 174 42
Circle -7500403 false true 24 174 42
Circle -7500403 false true 144 174 42
Circle -7500403 false true 234 174 42

turtle
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Polygon -10899396 true false 215 204 240 233 246 254 228 266 215 252 193 210
Polygon -10899396 true false 195 90 225 75 245 75 260 89 269 108 261 124 240 105 225 105 210 105
Polygon -10899396 true false 105 90 75 75 55 75 40 89 31 108 39 124 60 105 75 105 90 105
Polygon -10899396 true false 132 85 134 64 107 51 108 17 150 2 192 18 192 52 169 65 172 87
Polygon -10899396 true false 85 204 60 233 54 254 72 266 85 252 107 210
Polygon -7500403 true true 119 75 179 75 209 101 224 135 220 225 175 261 128 261 81 224 74 135 88 99

wheel
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Circle -7500403 true true 3 3 294
Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240
Line -7500403 true 150 285 150 15
Line -7500403 true 15 150 285 150
Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60
Line -7500403 true 216 40 79 269
Line -7500403 true 40 84 269 221
Line -7500403 true 40 216 269 79
Line -7500403 true 84 40 221 269

wolf
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Polygon -16777216 true false 253 133 245 131 245 133
Polygon -7500403 true true 2 194 13 197 30 191 38 193 38 205 20 226 20 257 27 265 38 266 40 260 31 253 31 230 60 206 68 198 75 209 66 228 65 243 82 261 84 268 100 267 103 261 77 239 79 231 100 207 98 196 119 201 143 202 160 195 166 210 172 213 173 238 167 251 160 248 154 265 169 264 178 247 186 240 198 260 200 271 217 271 219 262 207 258 195 230 192 198 210 184 227 164 242 144 259 145 284 151 277 141 293 140 299 134 297 127 273 119 270 105
Polygon -7500403 true true -1 195 14 180 36 166 40 153 53 140 82 131 134 133 159 126 188 115 227 108 236 102 238 98 268 86 269 92 281 87 269 103 269 113

x
false
0
Polygon -7500403 true true 270 75 225 30 30 225 75 270
Polygon -7500403 true true 30 75 75 30 270 225 225 270
@#$#@#$#@
NetLogo 6.1.0
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
<experiments>
  <experiment name="experiment" repetitions="100" runMetricsEveryStep="false">
    <setup>drawing
setup</setup>
    <go>go
count-votes</go>
    <timeLimit steps="30"/>
    <metric>GOP-votes</metric>
    <metric>Demos-votes</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="incumbent-party">
      <value value="&quot;GOP&quot;"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="neighbor-mode">
      <value value="&quot;neighbors&quot;"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="expected-unemployment-rate">
      <value value="5"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="state-efficiency">
      <value value="0.8"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="ur-weight">
      <value value="0.8"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="national-unemployment-rate">
      <value value="4.5"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="media-weight">
      <value value="0.8"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="media-efficiency">
      <value value="0.8"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="state-weight">
      <value value="0.8"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
  </experiment>
</experiments>
@#$#@#$#@
@#$#@#$#@
default
0.0
-0.2 0 0.0 1.0
0.0 1 1.0 0.0
0.2 0 0.0 1.0
link direction
true
0
Line -7500403 true 150 150 90 180
Line -7500403 true 150 150 210 180
@#$#@#$#@
0
@#$#@#$#@