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Electricity Demand Forecasting

Business Context:

One of the leading electricity distribution companies aims to accurately forecast electricity demand for the next 1-2 years to efficiently manage production and vendor procurement.

Available Data:

The available data consists of monthly electricity consumption from January 1973 to December 2019. The data includes the date (month and year) and electricity consumption in trillion watts.

Business Objectives:

  1. Forecast the demand for electricity for the next 1-2 years.
  2. Calculate error metrics (RMSE, RMSPE, MAPE).
  3. Compare various models, including Decomposition, ETS models, ARIMA/SARIMA Models with various parameters.

Expected Outputs:

  • Detailed code with proper comments.
  • Model validation metrics/accuracy metrics.
  • Demand estimation for the next 1-2 years on a monthly basis.
  • Selection of the chosen model and reasoning for the selection.

Contact Information:

Feel free to reach out: [email protected]