Scenarios.md

Equilibrium Points There are two equilibrium points in our system:

• moose-wolf system with caribou at zero (unstable for caribou)
• moose-wolf-caribou system

two-species equilibrium:

$$ eqM: \frac{(d + \omega)}{(aM (u - d hM - hM \omega))} $$

$$ eqW: \frac{(u (rm - \mu))}{(aM (u - (d + \omega) hM))} - \frac{( u (d + \omega) rm)}{(aM^2 Km (u - (d + \omega) hM)^2)} $$

note $$(d hM-u+hM \omega) < 0 $$ for eqM to be positive

add notes about stability NIKI

three-species equilibrium: NIKI

Scenario

We are trying to assess how to get from a 2 species system to a stable 3 species system.

Management Strategies

• wolf cull (proportional harvest or fixed escapement harvest rules?)
• moose cull (prop. harvest)
• habitat restoration (longer time scale than immediate strategies above) - implemented every 10th timestep?

Implementation

• pulsed management
• gradual decline
• effectiveness in short vs. long-term strategy

We are trying to maximize caribou growth rate while retaining all 3 species on the landscape and keeping costs low.

• budget - curriculum learning?