\n",
" \n",
- " 16744 | \n",
+ " 17986 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.010 | \n",
- " 1.342192 | \n",
- " 0.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
- " 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 12.482264 | \n",
+ " 1.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-04 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 16745 | \n",
+ " 17987 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.025 | \n",
- " 1.458424 | \n",
- " 0.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
- " 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 13.174541 | \n",
+ " 1.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-04 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 16746 | \n",
+ " 17988 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.050 | \n",
- " 2.047606 | \n",
- " 0.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
- " 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 13.776014 | \n",
+ " 1.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-04 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 16747 | \n",
+ " 17989 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.100 | \n",
- " 2.958172 | \n",
- " 0.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
- " 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 14.055026 | \n",
+ " 1.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-04 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 16748 | \n",
+ " 17990 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.150 | \n",
- " 4.115105 | \n",
- " 0.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
- " 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 14.467847 | \n",
+ " 1.0 days ahead daily cases | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-04 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
@@ -1455,53 +1459,53 @@
" ... | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 19314 | \n",
+ " 20694 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.800 | \n",
- " 2.684764 | \n",
- " 27.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
+ " 4.802918 | \n",
+ " 28.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
- " 2023-08-30 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-31 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 19315 | \n",
+ " 20695 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.850 | \n",
- " 3.374398 | \n",
- " 27.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
+ " 5.499764 | \n",
+ " 28.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
- " 2023-08-30 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-31 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 19316 | \n",
+ " 20696 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.900 | \n",
- " 4.913197 | \n",
- " 27.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
+ " 7.167186 | \n",
+ " 28.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
- " 2023-08-30 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-31 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 19317 | \n",
+ " 20697 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.950 | \n",
- " 12.277923 | \n",
- " 27.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
+ " 11.242225 | \n",
+ " 28.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
- " 2023-08-30 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-31 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
- " 19318 | \n",
+ " 20698 | \n",
" quantile | \n",
" 0.975 | \n",
- " 16.487013 | \n",
- " 27.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
+ " 17.631844 | \n",
+ " 28.0 days ahead cum death | \n",
" 2023-08-03 | \n",
- " 2023-08-30 | \n",
+ " 2023-08-31 | \n",
" US | \n",
"
\n",
" \n",
@@ -1511,35 +1515,35 @@
],
"text/plain": [
" type quantile value target \\\n",
- "16744 quantile 0.010 1.342192 0.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
- "16745 quantile 0.025 1.458424 0.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
- "16746 quantile 0.050 2.047606 0.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
- "16747 quantile 0.100 2.958172 0.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
- "16748 quantile 0.150 4.115105 0.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
+ "17986 quantile 0.010 12.482264 1.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
+ "17987 quantile 0.025 13.174541 1.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
+ "17988 quantile 0.050 13.776014 1.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
+ "17989 quantile 0.100 14.055026 1.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
+ "17990 quantile 0.150 14.467847 1.0 days ahead daily cases \n",
"... ... ... ... ... \n",
- "19314 quantile 0.800 2.684764 27.0 days ahead cum death \n",
- "19315 quantile 0.850 3.374398 27.0 days ahead cum death \n",
- "19316 quantile 0.900 4.913197 27.0 days ahead cum death \n",
- "19317 quantile 0.950 12.277923 27.0 days ahead cum death \n",
- "19318 quantile 0.975 16.487013 27.0 days ahead cum death \n",
+ "20694 quantile 0.800 4.802918 28.0 days ahead cum death \n",
+ "20695 quantile 0.850 5.499764 28.0 days ahead cum death \n",
+ "20696 quantile 0.900 7.167186 28.0 days ahead cum death \n",
+ "20697 quantile 0.950 11.242225 28.0 days ahead cum death \n",
+ "20698 quantile 0.975 17.631844 28.0 days ahead cum death \n",
"\n",
" forecast_date target_end_date location \n",
- "16744 2023-08-03 2023-08-03 US \n",
- "16745 2023-08-03 2023-08-03 US \n",
- "16746 2023-08-03 2023-08-03 US \n",
- "16747 2023-08-03 2023-08-03 US \n",
- "16748 2023-08-03 2023-08-03 US \n",
+ "17986 2023-08-03 2023-08-04 US \n",
+ "17987 2023-08-03 2023-08-04 US \n",
+ "17988 2023-08-03 2023-08-04 US \n",
+ "17989 2023-08-03 2023-08-04 US \n",
+ "17990 2023-08-03 2023-08-04 US \n",
"... ... ... ... \n",
- "19314 2023-08-03 2023-08-30 US \n",
- "19315 2023-08-03 2023-08-30 US \n",
- "19316 2023-08-03 2023-08-30 US \n",
- "19317 2023-08-03 2023-08-30 US \n",
- "19318 2023-08-03 2023-08-30 US \n",
+ "20694 2023-08-03 2023-08-31 US \n",
+ "20695 2023-08-03 2023-08-31 US \n",
+ "20696 2023-08-03 2023-08-31 US \n",
+ "20697 2023-08-03 2023-08-31 US \n",
+ "20698 2023-08-03 2023-08-31 US \n",
"\n",
"[1931 rows x 7 columns]"
]
},
- "execution_count": 10,
+ "execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
@@ -1563,7 +1567,7 @@
" \"number_days\",\n",
" \"output\",\n",
" ],\n",
- " train_end_point=None,\n",
+ " train_end_point=train_end_point,\n",
")\n",
"print(\"CDC Format:\")\n",
"q_ensemble_data[0:-1]"
@@ -1853,8 +1857,11 @@
}
],
"source": [
- "end_time_ensemble = 28.0 # Note that here train_end_date = None since there is no calibration so we simulate from 0-27 days\n",
- "logging_step_size_ensemble = 1.0\n",
+ "train_end_point = 3.3 # Use train_end_point = None if there is no calibration\n",
+ "if train_end_point is None:\n",
+ " end_time_ensemble = 28.0 - 1.0 # Note that here train_end_date = None since there is no calibration so we simulate from 0-27 days\n",
+ "else:\n",
+ " end_time_ensemble = train_end_point + 28.0\n",
"calibrated_ensemble_result = pyciemss.ensemble_sample(model_paths, solution_mappings, end_time_ensemble, logging_step_size_ensemble, num_samples, \n",
" start_time=start_time, inferred_parameters=parameter_estimates)\n",
"display(calibrated_ensemble_result['data'].head())\n",