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1 | 1 | # Simulator
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2 | 2 |
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3 |
| -cvx package for backtests |
| 3 | +Given a universe of $m$ assets we are given prices for each of them at time $t_1, t_2, \ldots t_n$, |
| 4 | +e.g. we operate using an $n \times m$ matrix where each column corresponds to a particular asset. |
4 | 5 |
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| 6 | +In a backtest we iterate in time (e.g. row by row) through the matrix and allocate positions to all or some of the assets. |
| 7 | +This tool shall help to simplify the accounting. It keeps track of the available cash, the profits achieved, etc. |
| 8 | + |
| 9 | +## Modus operandi |
| 10 | + |
| 11 | +The simulator shall be completely agnostic as to the trading policy/strategy. |
| 12 | +Our approach follows a rather common pattern: |
| 13 | + |
| 14 | +* [Create the portfolio object](#create-the-portfolio-object) |
| 15 | +* [Loop through time](#loop-through-time) |
| 16 | +* [Analyse results](#analyse-results) |
| 17 | + |
| 18 | +We demonstrate those steps with somewhat silly policies. They are never good strategies, but are always valid ones. |
| 19 | + |
| 20 | +### Create the portfolio object |
| 21 | + |
| 22 | +The user defines a portfolio object by loading a frame of prices and initialize the initial amount of cash used in our experiment: |
| 23 | + |
| 24 | +```python |
| 25 | +import pandas as pd |
| 26 | +from cvx.simulator.portfolio import build_portfolio |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +prices = pd.read_csv(Path("resources") / "price.csv", index_col=0, parse_dates=True, header=0).ffill( |
| 29 | +portfolio = build_portfolio(prices=prices, initial_cash=1e6) |
| 30 | +``` |
| 31 | + |
| 32 | +It is also possible to specify a model for trading costs. |
| 33 | + |
| 34 | +### Loop through time |
| 35 | + |
| 36 | +We have overloaded the `__iter__` and `__setitem__` methods to create a custom loop. |
| 37 | +Let's start with a first strategy. Each day we choose two names from the universe at random. |
| 38 | +Buy one (say 0.1 of your portfolio wealth) and short one the same amount. |
| 39 | + |
| 40 | +```python |
| 41 | +for before, now, state in portfolio: |
| 42 | + # pick two assets at random |
| 43 | + pair = np.random.choice(portfolio.assets, 2, replace=False) |
| 44 | + # compute the pair |
| 45 | + stocks = pd.Series(index=portfolio.assets, data=0.0) |
| 46 | + stocks[pair] = [state.nav, -state.nav] / state.prices[pair].values |
| 47 | + # update the position |
| 48 | + portfolio[now] = 0.1 * stocks |
| 49 | +``` |
| 50 | + |
| 51 | +A lot of magic is hidden in the state variable. |
| 52 | +The state gives access to the currently available cash, the current prices and the current valuation of all holdings. |
| 53 | + |
| 54 | +Here's a slightly more realistic loop. Given a set of $4$ assets we want to implmenent the popular $1/n$ strategy. |
| 55 | + |
| 56 | +```python |
| 57 | +for _, now, state in portfolio: |
| 58 | + # each day we invest a quarter of the capital in the assets |
| 59 | + portfolio[now] = 0.25 * state.nav / state.prices |
| 60 | +``` |
| 61 | + |
| 62 | +Note that we update the position at time `now` using a series of actual stocks rather than weights or cashpositions. |
| 63 | +Future versions of this package may support such conventions, too. |
| 64 | + |
| 65 | +### Analyse results |
| 66 | + |
| 67 | +The loop above is filling up the desired positions. The portfolio object is now ready for further analysis. |
| 68 | +It is possible dive into the data, e.g. |
| 69 | + |
| 70 | +```python |
| 71 | +portfolio.nav |
| 72 | +portfolio.cash |
| 73 | +portfolio.equity |
| 74 | +... |
| 75 | +``` |
| 76 | + |
| 77 | +## The dirty path |
| 78 | + |
| 79 | +Some may know the positions they want to enter for eternity. |
| 80 | +Running through a loop is rather non-pythonic waste of time in such a case. |
| 81 | +It is possible to completely bypass this step by submitting |
| 82 | +a frame of positions together with a frame of prices when creating the portfolio object. |
| 83 | + |
| 84 | +## Poetry |
| 85 | + |
| 86 | +We assume you share already the love for [Poetry](https://python-poetry.org). Once you have installed poetry you can perform |
| 87 | + |
| 88 | +```bash |
| 89 | +poetry install |
| 90 | +``` |
| 91 | + |
| 92 | +to replicate the virtual environment we have defined in pyproject.toml. |
| 93 | + |
| 94 | +## Kernel |
| 95 | + |
| 96 | +We install [JupyterLab](https://jupyter.org) within your new virtual environment. Executing |
| 97 | + |
| 98 | +```bash |
| 99 | +./create_kernel.sh |
| 100 | +``` |
| 101 | + |
| 102 | +constructs a dedicated [Kernel](https://docs.jupyter.org/en/latest/projects/kernels.html) for the project. |
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