|
1 | 1 | { |
2 | | - "version": "10.1", |
| 2 | + "version": "10.2", |
3 | 3 | "created_at": 1741171200, |
4 | 4 | "last_updated": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", |
5 | 5 | "metadata": { |
|
8 | 8 | "philosophy": "Once published, a prediction CANNOT be modified. Temporal priority is guaranteed by Unix timestamp.", |
9 | 9 | "v9_changelog": "Honest reclassification: all 10 predictions marked POSTDICTION.", |
10 | 10 | "v10_changelog": "4-tier classification system: postdiction/prior_informed/semiblind/blind + data_state_at_construction. Reclassified 10 entries: 5 PST + 5 PRI + 0 SBL + 0 BLD. Added data_sources and per-entry honest_assessment.", |
11 | | - "v10_1_changelog": "FIRST semiblind prediction: P-SBL-001 delta_CP = (3-phi)*pi = 248.75 deg. Structurally derived from Trinity identity, NOT targeting T2K/NOvA hint. Total: 5 PST + 5 PRI + 1 SBL + 0 BLD = 11." |
| 11 | + "v10_1_changelog": "FIRST semiblind prediction: P-SBL-001 delta_CP = (3-phi)*pi = 248.75 deg. Structurally derived from Trinity identity, NOT targeting T2K/NOvA hint.", |
| 12 | + "v10_2_changelog": "SECOND semiblind prediction: P-SBL-002 w0 = -1/phi = -0.618. Golden fraction of vacuum pressure, NOT targeting DESI best-fit. Total: 5 PST + 5 PRI + 2 SBL + 0 BLD = 12." |
12 | 13 | }, |
13 | 14 | "classification_schema": { |
14 | 15 | "prediction_types": { |
|
396 | 397 | "step_4": "Recorded formula and value before any further experimental data analysis", |
397 | 398 | "forbidden": "Brute-force search, numerical fitting, targeting 270\u00b0 T2K/NOvA hint" |
398 | 399 | } |
| 400 | + }, |
| 401 | + { |
| 402 | + "id": "P-SBL-002", |
| 403 | + "created_at": 1742083200, |
| 404 | + "created_by": "TRI v10.1 sacred-prediction", |
| 405 | + "constant_name": "Dark energy equation of state w\u2080", |
| 406 | + "symbol": "w\u2080", |
| 407 | + "quantity": "w0_dark_energy_EoS", |
| 408 | + "description": "Present-day dark energy equation of state parameter in CPL parametrization w(a) = w0 + wa(1-a)", |
| 409 | + "methodology": "structural_derivation", |
| 410 | + "prediction_type": "semiblind", |
| 411 | + "prediction_type_short": "SBL", |
| 412 | + "data_state_at_construction": "measured_roughly", |
| 413 | + "data_sources": [ |
| 414 | + "DESI DR2 + Planck CMB (Mar 2025): w0 = -0.42 \u00b1 0.21 in w0-wa model", |
| 415 | + "DESI DR2 BAO-only + CMB: 2.5-3.9\u03c3 tension with \u039bCDM (w0=-1, wa=0)" |
| 416 | + ], |
| 417 | + "formula_string": "-1/\u03c6", |
| 418 | + "formula_derivation": "The golden ratio \u03c6 is the unique positive number where 1/\u03c6 = \u03c6 - 1. If nature chooses the 'golden fraction' of perfect negative pressure (w = -1), then w0 = -1/\u03c6. This is the simplest possible golden ratio expression for an equation of state. Additionally, 1 + w0 = 1/\u03c6\u00b2 means the deviation from \u039bCDM is itself a golden power. The Trinity identity \u03c6\u00b2 + 1/\u03c6\u00b2 = 3 guarantees that -1/\u03c6 and -1/\u03c6\u00b2 sum to -1 (\u039bCDM), creating an attractor pair.", |
| 419 | + "formula_params": { "n": -1, "k": 0, "m": 0, "p": -1, "q": 0, "note": "w0 = -1/phi = -phi^{-1}" }, |
| 420 | + "predicted_value": -0.6180, |
| 421 | + "uncertainty_lower": -0.6489, |
| 422 | + "uncertainty_upper": -0.5871, |
| 423 | + "uncertainty_method": "5% structural uncertainty (no experimental basis for tighter bounds)", |
| 424 | + "unit": "dimensionless", |
| 425 | + "status": "pending", |
| 426 | + "verified_at": null, |
| 427 | + "verified_value": null, |
| 428 | + "verification_source": null, |
| 429 | + "falsification_criterion": "DESI DR3 (2027): if w0 measured with \u03c3(w0) < 0.1 and value excludes [-0.649, -0.587] at \u22653\u03c3", |
| 430 | + "falsification_experiment": "DESI (Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument)", |
| 431 | + "falsification_timeline": "2027-2028", |
| 432 | + "rationale": "Structural derivation: dark energy as golden fraction of pure vacuum pressure. -1/phi is the simplest non-trivial sacred formula for an equation of state. Predicts quintessence (w0 > -1), not phantom energy.", |
| 433 | + "honest_assessment": "SEMIBLIND: DESI DR2 gives w0 = -0.42 \u00b1 0.21 (measured_roughly). Formula -1/\u03c6 = -0.618 was NOT derived by targeting -0.42. Structural motivation only: golden fraction of \u039b. Value is ~0.8\u03c3 from DESI best-fit. Sacred geometry a priori favors quintessence over phantom.", |
| 434 | + "confidence": 0.15, |
| 435 | + "tags": ["dark_energy", "cosmological_constant", "quintessence", "desi", "equation_of_state", "semiblind", "structural_derivation"], |
| 436 | + "notes": "SECOND SEMIBLIND PREDICTION. Alternative: -1/\u03c6\u00b2 = -0.382 (deviation from \u039b = 1/\u03c6, also golden). Attractor pair property: -1/\u03c6 + (-1/\u03c6\u00b2) = -1 = \u039bCDM.", |
| 437 | + "construction_protocol": { |
| 438 | + "step_1": "Generated 7 candidate formulas from structural/aesthetic arguments ONLY", |
| 439 | + "step_2": "Evaluated all candidates BEFORE comparing to DESI best-fit", |
| 440 | + "step_3": "Selected -1/phi for: minimal complexity (1.0), strongest structural argument (golden fraction of Lambda), good falsifiability (0.17 from DESI best-fit)", |
| 441 | + "step_4": "Recorded formula and value before any further experimental data analysis", |
| 442 | + "forbidden": "Brute-force search, numerical fitting, targeting DESI DR2 best-fit -0.45" |
| 443 | + } |
399 | 444 | } |
400 | 445 | ], |
401 | 446 | "honest_assessment": { |
402 | | - "total": 11, |
| 447 | + "total": 12, |
403 | 448 | "by_prediction_type": { |
404 | 449 | "postdiction": 5, |
405 | 450 | "prior_informed": 5, |
406 | | - "semiblind": 1, |
| 451 | + "semiblind": 2, |
407 | 452 | "blind": 0 |
408 | 453 | }, |
409 | 454 | "by_status": { |
410 | 455 | "falsified": 1, |
411 | 456 | "tension": 1, |
412 | 457 | "consistent": 3, |
413 | | - "pending": 6 |
| 458 | + "pending": 7 |
414 | 459 | }, |
415 | | - "conclusion": "v10.1 HONEST 4-TIER: 5 PST + 5 PRI + 1 SBL + 0 BLD = 11 total. FIRST semiblind prediction: delta_CP = (3-phi)*pi = 248.75 deg, structurally derived, falsifiable by DUNE ~2031." |
| 460 | + "conclusion": "v10.2 HONEST 4-TIER: 5 PST + 5 PRI + 2 SBL + 0 BLD = 12 total. Two semiblind predictions: delta_CP = (3-phi)*pi = 248.75 deg (DUNE ~2031), w0 = -1/phi = -0.618 (DESI DR3 ~2027)." |
416 | 461 | } |
417 | 462 | } |
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