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IrradianceNet

This is the official implementation of the IrradianceNet paper.

Sample 1

Alt Text

Sample 2

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1. Installation

This project was conducted using pytorch==1.8.1. It might also work with previous/future versions, but this is obviously not guaranteed. I have attached the requirements.txt of my conda environment. Run the following two commands to get started.

git clone https://github.com/holmdk/IrradianceNet.git

Next, install virtual environment (conda but others should work too)

conda install --file requirements.txt

2. Configuration

Please read the following descriptions before you start running any code. If you follow all steps you should be able to predict satellite-derived solar irradiance using our pretrained ConvLSTM model relatively quickly.

  • If you are interested in the final product of solar irradiance forecasts, we have only supplied all the ingredients for a small period (2016-05-01 to 2016-05-05), but extending this is relatively straightforward and explained in detail later.
  • If you are only interested in the effective cloud albedo, then you can use our setup for the entire period of 1983-01-01 - 2017-12-31 straight away.

The results shown in our paper are based on the entire test dataset (2016-2017), and this small subset is only meant for other researchers to quickly validate or replicate our results or for prototyping new models. Nevertheless, the results here largely align with the ones demonstrated in the paper.

2.1 Input data

As we are not the owners of the original Effective Cloud Albedo dataset, you will have to download the data from the following site. Perform the following steps:

  1. Sign up to the website
  2. Select both a) the Effective cloud albedo (CAL) and b) Surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) with "Instantaneous"
  3. Download the following time interval (2016-05-01 to 2016-05-05) for both a) and b)
  4. See the next section on Pre-processing on how to proceed from these raw datasets.
  5. Download clear sky irradiance dataset
  • If you want to use meta-features (like in the original paper), most are relatively straightforward to generate and download. We give a description of these in the paper. If you want to use these meta-features, you need to append them to the Dataloader and also set in_channels=n, where n is the number of meta-features in the ConvLSTM model. Using all meta-features mentioned in the paper will boost performance of the ConvLSTM models by reducing MAE (over the entire test set) by roughly 5-10, but the version proposed here is still superior to the state-of-the-art TVL-1 Optical Flow.

2.2 Pre-processing

The usage of pre-processing is relatively limited and will be described in detail in a future publication. We list the primary steps here along with a reference to the various scripts needed so you can essentially replicate our methodology from scratch. The primary steps are:

  1. Having followed the Input data section, you should put the downloaded 'CAL' and 'SIS' files into a folder as /data/SARAH/.
  2. Modify the /src/data/process_raw_data.py script if you want a different name, time horizon, etc. in the config dict listed in the script.
  3. Run the /src/data/process_raw_data.py script.
  4. You should now have all the data required to run inference.

*Note the raw dataset size is multiple terabytes so there is a high probability you will run our of memory if you run this script for a large portion of the dataset.
**Note there are many ways to derive clear sky irradiance, which is the component needed to convert CAL to SIS. Here, I have attached for the period 2016-05-01 to 2016-05-05 using Ineichen Clear Sky model. If you want more clear-sky data this should be trivial using the popular pvlib library.

2.3 Pre-trained model

We are supplying a pre-trained model specifically optimized for 2-step ahead prediction (1-hour), but the model can still be used for longer time horizons by setting n to be the number of future frames you want to predict using the flag n_future_frames=n. If you are interested in models optimized for more time steps let me know (up to 8 future frames).

You can download our high-resolution model here. After downloading, put the model into the /models/full_res folder.

3. Usage (inference)

If you want to run the ConvLSTM model with default settings, run the following:

python test.py

If you want the benchmark TVL-1 Optical Flow, run the following:

python test.py --model_name opt_flow

There are other arguments you can change as well, but this is only recommended for expert users.

4. Results

2016-05-01 to 2016-05-05

Model MAE (k) RMSE (k) MAE (SIS) RMSE (SIS)
ConvLSTM (high-res, only CAL) 0.0674 0.1032 46.81 68.09
TVL-1 Optical Flow (high-res, only CAL) 0.0782 0.1459 58.38 93.99

In the figures below, we

  • Demonstrate predictions in the top row, ground truth in middle row and the pixel-wise absolute error in the bottom row
  • Column 1 is one-step ahead (30 minutes), and column 2 is two-steps ahead (1 hour)

5. Visualization

Example 1

drawing

Example 2

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