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Minor typo in "Bayesian Additive Regression Trees: Introduction" notebook #584 (#585)
* Fix typo in BART_introduction.myst.md Change "season" to "reason" * Fix typo in BART_introduction.ipynb Changes "season" to "reason" in BART_introduction.ipynb --------- Co-authored-by: jmellor <[email protected]>
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examples/case_studies/BART_introduction.ipynb

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"This plot helps us understand the season behind the bad performance on the test set: Recall that in the variable importance ranking from the initial model we saw that `hour` was the most important predictor. On the other hand, our training data just sees `hour` values until $19$ (since is our train-test threshold). As BART learns how to partition the (training) data, it can not differentiate between `hour` values between $20$ and $22$ for example. It just cares that both values are greater that $19$. This is very important to understand when using BART! This explains why one should not use BART for time series forecasting if there is a trend component. In this case it is better to detrend the data first, model the remainder with BART and model the trend with a different model."
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"This plot helps us understand the reason behind the bad performance on the test set: Recall that in the variable importance ranking from the initial model we saw that `hour` was the most important predictor. On the other hand, our training data just sees `hour` values until $19$ (since is our train-test threshold). As BART learns how to partition the (training) data, it can not differentiate between `hour` values between $20$ and $22$ for example. It just cares that both values are greater that $19$. This is very important to understand when using BART! This explains why one should not use BART for time series forecasting if there is a trend component. In this case it is better to detrend the data first, model the remainder with BART and model the trend with a different model."
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examples/case_studies/BART_introduction.myst.md

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This plot helps us understand the season behind the bad performance on the test set: Recall that in the variable importance ranking from the initial model we saw that `hour` was the most important predictor. On the other hand, our training data just sees `hour` values until $19$ (since is our train-test threshold). As BART learns how to partition the (training) data, it can not differentiate between `hour` values between $20$ and $22$ for example. It just cares that both values are greater that $19$. This is very important to understand when using BART! This explains why one should not use BART for time series forecasting if there is a trend component. In this case it is better to detrend the data first, model the remainder with BART and model the trend with a different model.
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This plot helps us understand the reason behind the bad performance on the test set: Recall that in the variable importance ranking from the initial model we saw that `hour` was the most important predictor. On the other hand, our training data just sees `hour` values until $19$ (since is our train-test threshold). As BART learns how to partition the (training) data, it can not differentiate between `hour` values between $20$ and $22$ for example. It just cares that both values are greater that $19$. This is very important to understand when using BART! This explains why one should not use BART for time series forecasting if there is a trend component. In this case it is better to detrend the data first, model the remainder with BART and model the trend with a different model.
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