Every claim in slides/outline.md traces to one of these. Vendor sources are flagged.
- Agile by Farr — Lead Time to Value: The Metric That Actually Matters (Oct 2025) — used as the primary verbatim source on slide 4. Defines LTTV as "the elapsed time from when work is requested until it delivers measurable value to customers or the business" and breaks it into five stages: Discovery, Development, Deployment, Adoption, Value Realisation. The deck collapses these five into two halves (Lead Time to Ship + Lead Time to Realize).
- Flow Time vs. Lead Time — Tasktop / Planview blog (vendor)
- Planview — Flow Framework (vendor)
- Mik Kersten, Project to Product (2018) — origin of the Flow Framework; defines Flow Time as "first active state → available to customer."
- Forrester Wave: Value Stream Management Solutions, Q2 2025 (vendor announcement)
- dora.dev — DORA's software delivery performance metrics — canonical definition of Lead Time for Changes (commit → running in production).
- GitLab Docs — DORA metrics
- Aviator — Everything Wrong with DORA Metrics — credible critique of clock-start-at-commit and gameability.
- DX — 2024 DORA report summary (Laura Tacho) — AI adoption associated with ~1.5% throughput decrease, ~7.2% stability decrease; mechanism: larger batch sizes.
- Google Cloud — Announcing the 2025 DORA Report
- DORA — State of AI-assisted Software Development 2025 — introduces AI Capabilities Model (7 capabilities) and 7 team archetypes; tacit acknowledgement that the original four metrics no longer carry the load.
- InfoQ — AI Coding Assistants Haven't Sped up Delivery Because Coding Was Never the Bottleneck (Stiller, 2026) — Agoda's Leonardo Stern: "Human authority is migrating upward in the abstraction stack — from writing code to defining and governing intent." Faros data: 21% more tasks completed and 98% more PRs merged, yet PR review time +91%.
- The New Stack — Context is AI coding's real bottleneck in 2026
- Faros AI — 2025 DORA Report Key Takeaways (vendor) — incidents per PR up 242.7%; reports the constraint shifting to review/integration/deployment.
- Anthropic — 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report
- METR — Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced OSS Developer Productivity (July 2025) — RCT-style study; experienced devs ~19% slower with AI than without, despite believing they were faster. Strongest available counter to vendor productivity claims, indirect support for "the constraint isn't typing speed."
- Smith & Reinertsen, Developing Products in Half the Time (1991) — defines the fuzzy front end; "fuzziness consumes time."
- Reinertsen, Principles of Product Development Flow — the canonical text on flow in non-software product development.
- Black Swan Farming — Fuzzy Front End
- MIT Sloan — Integrating the Fuzzy Front End of New Product Development
- Robert G. Cooper — Stage-Gate framework (1990s).
- Intent Lead Time guide — withstoa.com
- Beyond Code-Centric whitepaper (SpecStory, 2025)
- Sibling repo:
/Users/gdc/ai-product-development— parent deck and source data (168 design docs, 177 implementation docs, 7 months of Stoa repo activity).