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<a href="VegetationModeling.html">Vegetation Modeling</a>
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<a href="ModelingWork.html">Modeling Work</a>
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<div id="header">
<h1 class="title toc-ignore">LANDFIRE Vegetation Modeling</h1>
<h4 class="author"></h4>
</div>
<div id="welcome" class="section level2">
<h2>Welcome</h2>
<p>Hello and welcome to The Nature Conservancy’s LANDFIRE vegetation
dynamics modeling site. We created this site to help you harness the
potential of the vegetation dynamics modeling framework to accomplish
your analysis, management, and restoration objectives. We recognize the
importance of having the best resources to accomplish your goals and
LANDFIRE is continually improving our products to get you the tools and
data that you need. <br></p>
<p><strong>How to use this website?</strong> We designed this website as
a resource for both new and seasoned Biophysical Setting (BpS) modelers.
We use the Montane Sage-Steppe ecosystem model throughout the website.
By weaving this model into all the tutorials, we can dive deeper into
exploring, modifying, and understanding the model’s “story”. We hope you
find our website useful and most importantly, we hope you use these BpS
models to their fullest extent.</p>
<p>If you are already familiar with this modeling framework and ready to
get started, skip ahead to <a href="./ModelingWork.html"
target="blank">Modeling Work</a>.</p>
<p><br></p>
<div style="float:right; padding:20px;width:50%;">
<p><img src="images/sb.jpg"
title="Landscape picture of sagebrush, clouds and brown hills in the background"
width="2778" alt="I really want some coffee." /><br />
</p>
<blockquote>
<p class="caption">
Photo: © Ian Shive, TNC. Sierra Mountain Foothills, Mojave Desert,
Central California
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
<div id="why-integrate-this-into-your-current-work"
class="section level2">
<h2>Why integrate this into your current work?</h2>
<p>This framework provides a national baseline for assessing current
vegetation conditions while accounting for historical ecology.
Integrating this knowledge with current projections of climate and other
factors has the potential to improve the way we manage land while
providing ecological context.</p>
<p>Biophysical models help users investigate the effects from
(simulated) ecosystem disturbances, and learn how changes in management
actions might impact an ecosystem before allocating time or resources to
on the ground operations. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br></p>
<blockquote>
<p>This modeling framework can help you make projections about future
landscape conditions as management and natural environments evolve. When
used within the intended context, BpS modeling can be a powerful tool
for managers.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="what-will-you-learn" class="section level2">
<h2>What will you learn?</h2>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li><p>We demonstrate the flexible software environment, <a
href="https://syncrosim.com/" target="blank">SyncroSim</a> which allows
users to explore and manipulate LANDFIRE’s vegetation dynamics
models</p></li>
<li><p>We illustrate how LANDFIRE’s vegetation dynamics models can be
used to investigate historical vegetation dynamics and use these
historical models to jumpstart your exploration into current and
possible future landscape conditions in your area of interest</p></li>
<li><p>We explore options for modifying vegetation models to represent
current or projected future landscape conditions</p></li>
<li><p>We introduce techniques for that simulate impacts from climate
change in the LANDFIRE vegetation models</p></li>
</ol>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="new-to-modeling-consider-this" class="section level2">
<h2>New to modeling? Consider this…</h2>
<p>Models are everywhere, they may be behind the scenes or in full view.
Some common examples of models:</p>
<ul>
<li>weather forecasts</li>
<li>measuring the state of the economy</li>
<li>assessing the condition of a landscape</li>
<li>forecasting a pandemic</li>
<li>maps</li>
</ul>
<p><br> Regardless of their complexity, all models are by definition a
simplification of reality. Like the model airplane - it “flies” like an
airplane but it cannot carry cargo or passengers.</p>
<p><br> <br></p>
<p><img src="images/model-simple-vs-complex1.jpg"
title="Figure depicting the difference between a simple vs. Complex model: simple image is a basic venn diagram with 3 circles – overlapping in the middle. Second picture has three boxes, one circle with arrows coming in and out of the elements depicting a complex model"
style="width:70.0%" alt="I really want some coffee." /><br />
</p>
<p><br></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“All models are wrong, so why do we create and use them?” - George
Box</p>
</blockquote>
<p><br></p>
<p>We create and use models because (as Box <em>also</em> said) they can
be useful. Models can illuminate through prediction or explanation. They
can promote understanding and exploration if used properly.</p>
<p><strong>Balance and relevance</strong> are what can make a model
illuminating.</p>
<p><img src="images/balance-relevance.jpg"
title="Figure: a scale with a double pan with the word balance in one pan and relevance in the other pan – words are equally weighted and balanced"
style="width:70.0%" alt="I really want some coffee." /><br />
</p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="developers-vs-users-key-considerations" class="section level2">
<h2>Developers vs Users: Key Considerations</h2>
<p>For the model developer, the key is to balance <strong>precision and
bias</strong> of the outputs with the relevance of the model. The goal
is to hit your application sweet spot.</p>
<p><br></p>
<div style="">
<p><img src="images/model-complexity.png"
title="Graph with error on the Y axis, model complexity on the x axis, a vertical line emerges in the middle of the x axis depicting the optimum model complexity target where the y axis elements (total error, variance and bias) intersect with this optimum model complexity target"
style="width:70.0%" alt="I really want some coffee." /><br />
</p>
<blockquote>
<p class="caption">
Image courtesy: <a href="francescopochetti.com" target="blank">Francesco
Pochetti</a>
</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<p>The model should provide useful information but must also function
for the user (i.e. have the right level of complexity). Complexity
should have a purpose: to provide more refined information, or in some
cases provide the same information with more fidelity.</p>
<div id="complex-models" class="section level3">
<h3>Complex models</h3>
<ul>
<li>typically require more input information</li>
<li>are more difficult to develop and de-bug</li>
<li>take longer to run</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="./VegetationModeling.html" target="blank">LANDFIRE BpS
models</a>, with their limited number of states and transitions, are
less complex and provide relatively few and coarser level outputs. This
also makes them easier to create and use.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Models such as <a
href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/40241"
target="blank">SIMPPLLE</a> and <a href="http://www.landis-ii.org/"
target="blank">LANDIS II</a> sit nearer the middle or upper end of the
complexity scale and can provide more types of outputs but at higher
operational cost.</p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="understanding-model-characterstics" class="section level3">
<h3>Understanding model characterstics</h3>
<br>
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<div class="blue">
<ul>
<li>What factors/inputs are included?</li>
<li>What factors/inputs are <em>not</em> included?</li>
<li>Can you provide the inputs at the level of accuracy required?</li>
<li>What modeling technique was used?</li>
<li>How was the model intended to be applied?</li>
<li>What is the “scale” of the model?</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="advice-for-using-bps-models" class="section level3">
<h3>Advice for using BpS models</h3>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li><p>Adhere to established modeling standards.</p></li>
<li><p>Have a goal and a plan. Don’t just wing it!</p></li>
<li><p>Work through the model changes in a stepwise fashion. Add states
and transitions one at a time.</p></li>
<li><p>Review the results and plan the next steps.</p></li>
<li><p>Keep it simple. The number of states directly impacts the number
of transitions you need and the amount of information you need to
support the model. As the model becomes more complicated it becomes more
difficult to create, parametrize, understand, modify and utilize
appropriately.</p></li>
<li><p>Expect the unexpected. If you knew the answer with certainty, you
probably did not need the model. An answer that seems strange to you may
be correct, and indeed illuminating.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr />
<div id="whats-next" class="section level4">
<h4>What’s next?</h4>
<ul>
<li>learn what a <a href="./VegetationModeling.html"
target="blank">state-and-transition model</a> (STSM) is</li>
<li>learn how 900 LANDFIRE STSMs were built and how to use them with
SyncroSim</li>
<li>get acquainted with biophysical settings</li>
</ul>
<center>
<p><br></p>
<font size="4"> This website was developed by <a
href="https://www.conservationgateway.org/ConservationPractices/FireLandscapes/LANDFIRE/contacts/Pages/default.aspx"
target="blank">The Nature Conservancy LANDFIRE Team</a> under Agreement
G18AC00378 with the U.S. Geological Survey.</font>
</center>
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