Generated: 2026-05-22T08:13:53Z
From the US Office of Space Commerce TraCSS verification answer key (913,330 conjunctions, October 2025 snapshot, CC0-1.0 public domain).
Filter applied: dropped 698,649 events flagged with dilution=1 (diluted-covariance = unreliable Pc per Aerospace IVV User Guide §5).
All Pc values were computed by Aerospace Corporation's CSieve tool using the Alfano 2004 method on the published ephemerides.
| # | obj1 → obj2 | Pc | ≈ 1-in-N | Miss (km) | Vrel (km/s) | TCA | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42810 → 48183 | 8.510e-07 | 1 in 1,175,021 | 0.943 | 14.92 | 2025-01-01 15:01:58.879424 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 2 | 29293 → 35160 | 7.505e-07 | 1 in 1,332,449 | 0.880 | 14.93 | 2025-01-02 07:01:43.884320 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 3 | 42191 → 54301 | 7.172e-07 | 1 in 1,394,356 | 0.970 | 14.76 | 2025-01-02 03:37:54.784867 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 4 | 11047 → 15621 | 6.582e-07 | 1 in 1,519,255 | 0.874 | 13.69 | 2025-01-08 10:14:09.150817 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 5 | 907 → 5151 | 6.432e-07 | 1 in 1,554,680 | 0.986 | 14.65 | 2025-01-01 12:58:08.566547 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 6 | 30656 → 33825 | 6.298e-07 | 1 in 1,587,892 | 1.104 | 14.89 | 2025-01-02 05:37:32.453852 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 7 | 36232 → 39086 | 5.546e-07 | 1 in 1,803,220 | 1.183 | 14.66 | 2025-01-04 10:07:29.845818 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 8 | 26273 → 35632 | 5.481e-07 | 1 in 1,824,433 | 1.126 | 15.12 | 2025-01-01 19:25:43.959518 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 9 | 20348 → 29813 | 5.466e-07 | 1 in 1,829,463 | 1.092 | 14.87 | 2025-01-03 06:55:06.777761 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 10 | 3213 → 42276 | 5.359e-07 | 1 in 1,866,177 | 1.185 | 14.75 | 2025-01-02 06:50:52.888426 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 11 | 25490 → 41789 | 5.078e-07 | 1 in 1,969,385 | 1.114 | 15.04 | 2025-01-03 00:11:41.299620 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 12 | 14454 → 54926 | 4.997e-07 | 1 in 2,001,382 | 0.996 | 14.85 | 2025-01-03 18:06:00.193970 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 13 | 22608 → 56682 | 4.858e-07 | 1 in 2,058,612 | 1.547 | 13.82 | 2025-01-03 08:57:53.853498 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 14 | 39452 → 55085 | 4.787e-07 | 1 in 2,089,097 | 1.078 | 15.25 | 2025-01-01 21:06:20.017104 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 15 | 20103 → 21471 | 4.573e-07 | 1 in 2,186,790 | 0.936 | 14.72 | 2025-01-02 14:42:06.029989 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 16 | 19365 → 34690 | 4.494e-07 | 1 in 2,225,263 | 1.388 | 14.94 | 2025-01-02 04:19:42.110752 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 17 | 8174 → 54151 | 4.442e-07 | 1 in 2,251,440 | 1.840 | 4.68 | 2025-01-06 03:35:59.622561 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 18 | 30021 → 42200 | 4.344e-07 | 1 in 2,302,027 | 1.121 | 14.75 | 2025-01-03 04:27:48.989548 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 19 | 45501 → 56639 | 4.245e-07 | 1 in 2,355,849 | 1.088 | 14.97 | 2025-01-02 21:01:14.389203 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 20 | 17178 → 27869 | 4.242e-07 | 1 in 2,357,531 | 1.758 | 3.42 | 2025-01-05 07:53:45.643879 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 21 | 7167 → 10935 | 4.202e-07 | 1 in 2,379,748 | 0.997 | 14.07 | 2025-01-01 21:03:22.110736 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 22 | 28071 → 34350 | 4.154e-07 | 1 in 2,407,329 | 1.448 | 14.02 | 2025-01-02 04:26:31.892926 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 23 | 12092 → 23773 | 4.150e-07 | 1 in 2,409,578 | 1.832 | 14.38 | 2025-01-01 12:53:31.579523 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 24 | 29892 → 32063 | 4.013e-07 | 1 in 2,491,781 | 1.736 | 14.91 | 2025-01-02 02:56:39.429437 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 25 | 31114 → 38278 | 3.987e-07 | 1 in 2,508,258 | 1.075 | 14.95 | 2025-01-02 18:28:19.347298 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 26 | 15398 → 22354 | 3.974e-07 | 1 in 2,516,209 | 2.119 | 1.79 | 2025-01-04 20:11:22.399477 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 27 | 12456 → 41833 | 3.967e-07 | 1 in 2,520,701 | 1.009 | 14.82 | 2025-01-03 05:56:06.792948 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 28 | 28075 → 43302 | 3.961e-07 | 1 in 2,524,298 | 1.269 | 14.92 | 2025-01-02 08:49:09.630378 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 29 | 30516 → 43573 | 3.928e-07 | 1 in 2,545,800 | 1.126 | 14.90 | 2025-01-02 23:29:32.685726 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 30 | 5731 → 54424 | 3.583e-07 | 1 in 2,790,568 | 1.494 | 14.87 | 2025-01-02 23:27:23.777108 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 31 | 21317 → 55177 | 3.570e-07 | 1 in 2,801,418 | 1.010 | 14.42 | 2025-01-01 14:20:03.854800 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 32 | 20879 → 30916 | 3.499e-07 | 1 in 2,857,636 | 2.233 | 12.50 | 2025-01-02 04:03:18.944051 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 33 | 12204 → 12673 | 3.492e-07 | 1 in 2,863,857 | 0.968 | 14.85 | 2025-01-06 07:31:43.507159 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 34 | 21656 → 54676 | 3.443e-07 | 1 in 2,904,097 | 1.011 | 14.12 | 2025-01-03 12:20:00.608745 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 35 | 13570 → 45502 | 3.415e-07 | 1 in 2,927,926 | 1.160 | 14.95 | 2025-01-03 01:44:16.216005 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 36 | 24944 → 54974 | 3.365e-07 | 1 in 2,971,618 | 1.403 | 14.90 | 2025-01-02 05:30:17.566834 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 37 | 7136 → 7441 | 3.359e-07 | 1 in 2,977,161 | 1.060 | 14.14 | 2025-01-03 02:38:47.658319 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 38 | 35196 → 45502 | 3.358e-07 | 1 in 2,978,198 | 1.005 | 14.96 | 2025-01-03 06:22:31.334762 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 39 | 13127 → 25590 | 3.301e-07 | 1 in 3,029,320 | 1.982 | 5.35 | 2025-01-06 21:15:36.328351 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 40 | 15768 → 41830 | 3.264e-07 | 1 in 3,063,796 | 1.087 | 14.80 | 2025-01-02 15:32:02.232136 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 41 | 9509 → 14460 | 3.199e-07 | 1 in 3,125,604 | 1.356 | 14.31 | 2025-01-05 17:43:27.117592 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 42 | 704 → 42657 | 3.198e-07 | 1 in 3,126,912 | 0.779 | 14.44 | 2025-01-04 04:05:25.629715 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 43 | 7350 → 61280 | 3.192e-07 | 1 in 3,133,162 | 1.704 | 14.65 | 2025-01-02 21:58:14.629856 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 44 | 38149 → 42188 | 3.161e-07 | 1 in 3,163,361 | 1.315 | 14.87 | 2025-01-03 00:12:20.726471 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 45 | 26260 → 56729 | 3.111e-07 | 1 in 3,214,067 | 1.285 | 15.08 | 2025-01-03 17:10:51.333128 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 46 | 37768 → 57830 | 3.105e-07 | 1 in 3,221,099 | 1.407 | 14.78 | 2025-01-03 11:56:24.809354 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 47 | 21370 → 48970 | 3.088e-07 | 1 in 3,238,270 | 1.026 | 14.44 | 2025-01-07 15:34:53.660277 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 48 | 18463 → 34028 | 3.088e-07 | 1 in 3,238,720 | 1.060 | 13.93 | 2025-01-02 18:09:05.338474 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 49 | 17755 → 54289 | 3.038e-07 | 1 in 3,291,786 | 1.200 | 14.74 | 2025-01-02 22:28:51.633671 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 50 | 16384 → 16809 | 3.037e-07 | 1 in 3,292,714 | 1.807 | 11.47 | 2025-01-06 17:40:16.006226 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 51 | 11416 → 24948 | 3.025e-07 | 1 in 3,306,227 | 1.032 | 14.92 | 2025-01-07 00:56:17.633561 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 52 | 29637 → 43302 | 3.024e-07 | 1 in 3,306,716 | 1.309 | 14.95 | 2025-01-06 15:32:07.486995 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 53 | 12223 → 20348 | 3.002e-07 | 1 in 3,331,036 | 1.318 | 14.85 | 2025-01-06 06:59:40.724436 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 54 | 5024 → 57538 | 2.987e-07 | 1 in 3,348,165 | 1.631 | 14.81 | 2025-01-03 01:08:08.688004 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 55 | 6828 → 20805 | 2.984e-07 | 1 in 3,350,876 | 2.366 | 2.84 | 2025-01-02 19:41:39.958411 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 56 | 13464 → 27597 | 2.981e-07 | 1 in 3,354,553 | 1.401 | 14.88 | 2025-01-01 14:46:10.728279 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 57 | 35918 → 54356 | 2.951e-07 | 1 in 3,388,942 | 1.558 | 14.96 | 2025-01-04 17:01:06.461731 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 58 | 23466 → 26835 | 2.933e-07 | 1 in 3,409,455 | 1.081 | 14.71 | 2025-01-05 19:51:52.920741 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 59 | 9443 → 42956 | 2.848e-07 | 1 in 3,511,187 | 2.138 | 14.58 | 2025-01-01 18:22:07.207041 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 60 | 7073 → 39485 | 2.844e-07 | 1 in 3,516,792 | 1.171 | 14.20 | 2025-01-03 07:08:09.180464 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 61 | 58648 → 90124 | 2.833e-07 | 1 in 3,529,709 | 1.152 | 15.23 | 2025-01-05 12:33:28.930942 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) / synthetic maneuver / victim |
| 62 | 13073 → 46993 | 2.794e-07 | 1 in 3,579,460 | 0.678 | 14.83 | 2025-01-02 13:40:12.620400 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 63 | 11288 → 29936 | 2.778e-07 | 1 in 3,600,104 | 1.589 | 14.78 | 2025-01-05 12:52:06.014467 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 64 | 34985 → 54349 | 2.769e-07 | 1 in 3,611,454 | 1.662 | 14.94 | 2025-01-03 09:14:54.800364 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 65 | 10835 → 57767 | 2.766e-07 | 1 in 3,615,608 | 1.215 | 14.77 | 2025-01-03 07:56:40.909420 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 66 | 12442 → 31622 | 2.764e-07 | 1 in 3,618,519 | 1.685 | 14.78 | 2025-01-01 18:39:04.078436 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 67 | 34672 → 54565 | 2.760e-07 | 1 in 3,623,102 | 1.704 | 14.82 | 2025-01-03 03:46:33.554939 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 68 | 12139 → 44539 | 2.751e-07 | 1 in 3,634,444 | 1.216 | 15.32 | 2025-01-05 00:10:28.344202 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 69 | 29989 → 36340 | 2.749e-07 | 1 in 3,637,267 | 1.208 | 14.98 | 2025-01-05 12:17:45.153562 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 70 | 10290 → 26832 | 2.721e-07 | 1 in 3,675,566 | 1.262 | 13.12 | 2025-01-04 00:38:41.857264 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 71 | 28368 → 39323 | 2.713e-07 | 1 in 3,685,740 | 1.163 | 15.09 | 2025-01-02 05:21:01.926982 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 72 | 4135 → 30298 | 2.686e-07 | 1 in 3,723,036 | 2.093 | 14.85 | 2025-01-05 00:34:57.283553 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 73 | 5732 → 42563 | 2.672e-07 | 1 in 3,742,620 | 1.154 | 14.86 | 2025-01-04 12:45:49.024044 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 74 | 29819 → 43073 | 2.660e-07 | 1 in 3,758,917 | 0.947 | 14.96 | 2025-01-03 16:16:06.996548 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 75 | 17755 → 39630 | 2.643e-07 | 1 in 3,782,948 | 0.795 | 14.86 | 2025-01-02 03:19:12.377035 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 76 | 40468 → 43931 | 2.638e-07 | 1 in 3,790,983 | 1.521 | 14.90 | 2025-01-02 23:33:50.085973 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 77 | 30155 → 39957 | 2.612e-07 | 1 in 3,828,056 | 1.469 | 14.74 | 2025-01-04 02:52:44.313291 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 78 | 39452 → 55133 | 2.600e-07 | 1 in 3,846,210 | 1.462 | 15.25 | 2025-01-02 13:59:04.953630 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 79 | 22308 → 35319 | 2.578e-07 | 1 in 3,878,386 | 1.606 | 14.62 | 2025-01-07 21:09:48.564554 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 80 | 45299 → 48772 | 2.569e-07 | 1 in 3,893,003 | 1.120 | 14.46 | 2025-01-02 07:38:25.407560 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 81 | 39092 → 42114 | 2.564e-07 | 1 in 3,900,234 | 1.315 | 14.95 | 2025-01-04 07:33:09.960448 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 82 | 11788 → 43409 | 2.558e-07 | 1 in 3,909,488 | 2.042 | 14.62 | 2025-01-02 10:53:09.990418 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 83 | 39094 → 42220 | 2.540e-07 | 1 in 3,936,555 | 1.403 | 14.93 | 2025-01-05 03:43:05.754068 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 84 | 38271 → 41212 | 2.526e-07 | 1 in 3,958,375 | 1.455 | 14.86 | 2025-01-06 04:42:01.887377 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 85 | 6660 → 30357 | 2.507e-07 | 1 in 3,989,357 | 1.061 | 14.87 | 2025-01-01 12:51:02.984889 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 86 | 8435 → 22188 | 2.504e-07 | 1 in 3,993,904 | 1.170 | 14.17 | 2025-01-02 03:15:07.493235 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 87 | 36508 → 61142 | 2.497e-07 | 1 in 4,004,873 | 1.186 | 14.99 | 2025-01-06 09:31:51.924620 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 88 | 9481 → 56598 | 2.481e-07 | 1 in 4,030,135 | 1.455 | 14.81 | 2025-01-05 04:18:58.815863 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 89 | 35271 → 49321 | 2.477e-07 | 1 in 4,037,482 | 2.338 | 15.16 | 2025-01-02 22:13:56.207576 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 90 | 21656 → 54681 | 2.451e-07 | 1 in 4,080,286 | 1.170 | 14.13 | 2025-01-02 07:13:49.532985 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 91 | 14154 → 14558 | 2.448e-07 | 1 in 4,085,443 | 2.867 | 14.26 | 2025-01-02 17:53:16.851331 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 92 | 6660 → 31190 | 2.446e-07 | 1 in 4,087,826 | 1.226 | 14.82 | 2025-01-08 11:27:40.727615 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 93 | 36100 → 39310 | 2.442e-07 | 1 in 4,094,422 | 1.346 | 14.84 | 2025-01-05 01:08:09.260641 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 94 | 29878 → 55003 | 2.436e-07 | 1 in 4,104,985 | 2.600 | 14.89 | 2025-01-02 07:14:19.406121 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 95 | 30714 → 42398 | 2.436e-07 | 1 in 4,105,099 | 3.355 | 5.33 | 2025-01-02 13:35:22.114756 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 96 | 6825 → 41722 | 2.432e-07 | 1 in 4,111,426 | 1.762 | 8.33 | 2025-01-05 06:31:40.822701 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 97 | 9481 → 37666 | 2.416e-07 | 1 in 4,138,680 | 1.353 | 14.82 | 2025-01-01 20:22:44.186089 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 98 | 17755 → 40449 | 2.393e-07 | 1 in 4,178,836 | 1.610 | 14.92 | 2025-01-06 15:39:26.519113 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 99 | 21674 → 61292 | 2.389e-07 | 1 in 4,185,695 | 2.201 | 14.86 | 2025-01-03 01:49:59.461969 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
| 100 | 4699 → 42395 | 2.388e-07 | 1 in 4,187,731 | 2.701 | 14.83 | 2025-01-02 08:47:43.840561 | real (Space-Track catalog, Jan 2025) |
This is the first public ranking of the highest-Pc conjunction events in the Aerospace IVV verification dataset. The dataset was released in October 2025 as a diagnostic benchmark for SSA service providers — but until now, nobody had publicly extracted and named the highest-risk events.
Caveats (these are real):
- The TraCSS verification dataset is explicitly diagnostic, not operational (per User Guide §2). These Pc values came from the dataset's curated input ephemerides, not from real-time orbit determination of actual satellites today.
- High-Pc rows in the historical CDM and fictitious-edge-case ranges are by design — they were engineered to stress conjunction-assessment algorithms.
- Real Space-Track-catalog objects (Sat ID 5–62461) are flagged in the Classification column; their Pc reflects January 2025 orbital states.
Source: SkyShield AI · github.com/vidigoat/skyshield-ai