`If our Nostradamus was wrong about every prediction they've made so far, we should probably ignore them.` is not quite right

[winston-bosan]

Wonderful website and small nitpick here.

If our Nostradamus was wrong about every prediction they've made so far, we should pay them roughly as much attention as the person that is right all the time! Because you just have to bet the opposite of Nostradamus everytime to be right about everything in this framing.

The better example should be If our Nostradamus says everything is 50/50. Then sure, our Nostradamus appears very hedged and humble. But then we can be replace him with a coin flip - without loss of generality.

[wasabipesto]

You are correct! In the real world there are many ways to be wrong, but in prediction markets a Nostradamus that's wrong 100% of the time is often just as valuable as one who's always right (as long as you know that fact, and on simple binary markets). I'll have to think about how to re-word that section to be both concise and technically correct.