bayesian_categorical.Rmd

# 贝叶斯分类模型 {#bayesian-categorical}




```{r, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
library(tidyverse)
library(tidybayes)
library(rstan)
rstan_options(auto_write = TRUE)
options(mc.cores = parallel::detectCores())
```

## 数据

这里，我们模拟了500个人他的家庭收入和职业选择 (`career = 1, 2, 3`)

```{r}
df <- readr::read_rds(here::here("demo_data", "career.rds")) 
df
```





以 `career = 3`为基线(baseline)，我们要估计下面公式中的**四个**参数，

> 回想下logit回归的数学表达式


$$
\begin{align*}
log\left(\frac{P(\text{career}=1)}{P(\text{career}=3)}\right) &= \alpha_{1} + \beta_{1} \text{income} \\

log\left(\frac{P(\text{career}=2)}{P(\text{career}=3)}\right) &= \alpha_{2} + \beta_{2} \text{income} \\
\end{align*}
$$


多项Logistic回归模型，R语言可以使用 `nnet::multinom()` 函数

```{r}
df %>% 
  dplyr::mutate(career = fct_rev(as_factor(career))) %>% 
  nnet::multinom(career ~ family_income, data = .)
```





## stan for multi-logit Regression


### stan 1

```{r, warning=FALSE, message=FALSE, results=FALSE}
stan_program <- "
data{
    int N;              // number of observations
    int K;              // number of outcome values
    int career[N];      // outcome
    real family_income[N];
}
parameters{
    vector[K-1] a;      // intercepts
    vector[K-1] b;      // coefficients on family income
}
model{
    vector[K] p;
    vector[K] s;
    a ~ normal(0, 5);
    b ~ normal(0, 5);
    for ( i in 1:N ) {
        for ( j in 1:(K-1) ) s[j] = a[j] + b[j]*family_income[i];
        s[K] = 0;        
        p = softmax( s );
        career[i] ~ categorical( p );
    }
}
"


stan_data <- list(
    N             = nrow(df),
    K             = 3,         
    career        = df$career,
    family_income = df$family_income
  )


m1 <- stan(model_code = stan_program, data = stan_data)
```


```{r}
m1
```


### stan 2


```{r, warning=FALSE, message=FALSE, results=FALSE}
stan_program <- "
data {
  int<lower = 2> K;
  int<lower = 0> N;
  int<lower = 1> D;
  int<lower = 1, upper = K> y[N];
  matrix[N, D] x;
}
transformed data {
  vector[D] zeros = rep_vector(0, D);
}
parameters {
  matrix[D, K - 1] beta_raw;
}
transformed parameters {
  matrix[D, K] beta;
  beta = append_col(beta_raw, zeros);
}
model {
  matrix[N, K] x_beta = x * beta;

  to_vector(beta_raw) ~ normal(0, 5);  

  for (n in 1:N)
    y[n] ~ categorical_logit(to_vector(x_beta[n]));
}
"

stan_data <- list(
    N = nrow(df),
    K = 3,         
    D = 2,         
    y = df$career,
    x = model.matrix( ~1 + family_income, data = df)
  )

m2 <- stan(model_code = stan_program, data = stan_data)
```




```{r}
m2
```



```{r, echo = F, message = F, warning = F, results = "hide"}
pacman::p_unload(pacman::p_loaded(), character.only = TRUE)
```