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Rung 2: component-target registry — the wedge decomposes 95% overpayment-side - #48
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Paper and method notes quote the component registry (lane commit e1a39a7): national FY2024 official 10.93 = file-computable 7.22 (5.73 over + 1.49 under) + 3.71pp wedge, 3.53pp (95%) in the overpayment component, 20 states' underpayment wedges negative — consistent with the excluded ineligible-case error (overpayment by construction) dominating the layer, not separately identified from re-review integration by these publications. FACTS O3. ASSET_V 20260812d; paper iframe v=r6d-20260812. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Roadmap rung 2 (analysis/MICROSIM_ROADMAP.md): upgrade the disclosed official-vs-file wedge from one number per state to a decomposed target set.
Registry (sol lane, gates all green)
analysis/component_targets.json+ builder + tests: per-state overpayment/underpayment/total parsed from the FY2024 and FY2025 PER publications (PDF SHA-256s recorded; the FY2025 hash matches the movement provenance exactly), with file-side counterparts computed on the committed rounding basis — STATUS 2 = overissuance / 3 = underissuance verified at techdoc.txt lines 6788/6794, never assumed. Gates: over+under == total within publication rounding (max discrepancy 0.010pp, Oklahoma); registry totals == data.json officials exactly, both years; wedge stats reproduce FACTS O1; byte-identical double-build; raw-source tests skipif in CI.The finding
Nationally, the official FY2024 rate of 10.93% is a file-computable 7.22% (5.73 over + 1.49 under) plus a 3.71pp wedge — and 3.53pp of the wedge (95%) sits in the overpayment component, with twenty states' underpayment wedges running negative. That concentration is consistent with the excluded ineligible-case error — overpayment by construction — dominating the layer, though the publications do not separately identify it from the federal re-review integration, so the artifact labels it an accounting decomposition, not an attribution.
Integration
Paper §sec-simulate wedge paragraph extended (r6d); FACTS O3; method-notes sentence with the registry link. Suite: 199 passed.
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