[MaxGhenis]

WIP. This touches only analysis/LITERATURE.md. It does not touch paper/index.qmd, which has an open PR.

What this adds

A "Developments since 2026-08-14" table. Each row was read at its primary source on 2026-10-24.

• USDA FY2025 payment error rate table (dated 2026-06-24). Differential check: all 53 official_fy2025 values in app/public/data.json, plus national.fy2025 (10.62%), match the table to two decimals.

• S. 5526, Agricultural Act of 2026. Reported 2026-09-24 and placed on the calendar (No. 683). Congress.gov lists no later action.

• CRS IN12723 (updated 2026-10-05). S. 5526 would:

  • start cost sharing in FY2029, keyed to the lower of the FY2026 or FY2027 rate;
  • delay the start for states at or above 13.33% in both FY2025 and FY2026;
  • add a 20% top share from FY2031.

  USDA has issued no guidance.

• CBPP, Bergh & Rosenbaum (2026-07-23). Its delay roster and New York's 13.18% match the paper's. Its ~$9B FY2028 shift is priced on a different issuance base.

• AEI COSM, Corinth (2026-08-19). The rate's denominator is benefits paid, which treats overpayments more leniently than underpayments. The worked example and the approximation were checked by hand.

• North Carolina S.L. 2026-41 §9J.14 (G.S. 108A-52.2). Passes the cost share to counties through sales-tax withholding, and writes the minimum-obligation FY2028 election into statute.

• McClurg SNAP PER tool. Point estimates only, with no sampling, election or delay modeling.

Also:

• Queue 9 holds the state-response claims seen only in secondary coverage (FFIS, Illinois DHS vs. the Civic Federation, APHSA, NC DHHS attribution method).
• Rival prediction 4 covers sub-state pass-throughs.

Plan

Four Subfleet research lanes are queued for when the lanes reopen:

• A, B and C work TO-VERIFY queues 1, 3 and 5–8;
• D scans 2025–2026 work that overlaps or pre-empts the paper's claims.

Their verified findings land on this branch. An independent review then runs at the final head and re-checks every new row against its source.

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