broken math

lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs

@@ -1930,13 +1930,15 @@ mod bucketed_history {
 				let mut highest_max_bucket_with_points = 0;
 				let mut highest_max_bucket_with_full_points = None;
 				let mut total_weight = 0;
+				let mut count = 0;
 				for (max_idx, max_bucket) in max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets.iter().enumerate() {
 					if *max_bucket >= BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE {
 						highest_max_bucket_with_full_points = Some(cmp::max(highest_max_bucket_with_full_points.unwrap_or(0), max_idx));
 					}
 					if *max_bucket != 0 {
 						highest_max_bucket_with_points = cmp::max(highest_max_bucket_with_points, max_idx);
 					}
+					count += *max_bucket as u64;
 					total_weight += (*max_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64)
 						* (min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets[0] as u64) * (min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets[0] as u64);
 				}
@@ -1951,6 +1953,8 @@ mod bucketed_history {
 				if payment_pos < max_bucket_end_pos {
 					let (numerator, denominator) = success_probability_float(payment_pos as u64, 0,
 						max_bucket_end_pos as u64, POSITION_TICKS as u64 - 1, params, true);
+					let alt_weight = count * (min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets[0] as u64);
+					let total_weight = alt_weight * alt_weight;
 					let bucket_prob = total_weight as f64 / total_valid_points_tracked;
 					cumulative_success_prob += bucket_prob * numerator / denominator;
 				}