Skip to content

Add dividend discount model (DDM) skill to financial-analysis vertical - #287

Open
HumphreySun98 wants to merge 1 commit into
anthropics:mainfrom
HumphreySun98:add-ddm-model-skill
Open

Add dividend discount model (DDM) skill to financial-analysis vertical#287
HumphreySun98 wants to merge 1 commit into
anthropics:mainfrom
HumphreySun98:add-ddm-model-skill

Conversation

@HumphreySun98

Copy link
Copy Markdown

What

Adds a new ddm-model skill to the financial-analysis vertical — a Dividend Discount Model (income-approach) valuation skill, and the income-based complement to the existing dcf-model and comps-analysis skills.

Why

The financial-analysis vertical covers DCF, trading comps, LBO, and 3-statement models, but there is no income / dividend-based valuation method anywhere in the repo. The DDM is the standard approach precisely where an FCF-DCF is unreliable or ill-defined:

  • Banks and insurers, where "free cash flow" isn't meaningful
  • REITs, utilities, and mature high-payout companies whose primary return is the distribution
  • As an income-based cross-check on a DCF or trading-comps valuation

It does not overlap dcf-model: a DDM discounts dividends at the cost of equity (not WACC) and yields equity value per share directly — no unlevered FCF and no enterprise-to-equity bridge. The skill hammers this cost-of-equity-not-WACC distinction, which is the most common DDM error.

What's inside (mirrors the dcf-model gold-standard file pattern)

  • SKILL.md — MCP-first data-source priority; the "Formulas Over Hardcodes" and verify-step-by-step constraints; the DDM workflow; a model-selection guide (single- / two- / three-stage / H-model); correct patterns & common mistakes; Excel structure; and a decision-support / human-sign-off guardrail.
  • references/methodology.md — single-, two-, and three-stage math and the H-model closed form; the ROE-driven build for financials (g = ROE · retention, book-value roll-forward); total-payout (buyback) handling; justified P/E and P/B cross-checks; DCF/comps reconciliation; and a fully worked two-stage example.
  • scripts/validate_ddm.py — an openpyxl validator that mirrors validate_dcf.py's structure and JSON output. It checks formula errors, enforces the critical cost of equity > terminal growth constraint, and flags an out-of-range cost of equity, an aggressive terminal growth, a terminal value that dominates total value, and a payout ratio above 100%. Exit 0 = PASS.
  • TROUBLESHOOTING.md and requirements.txt (openpyxl only).

Validation

  • python3 scripts/check.pyOK — 80 file(s) checked, 0 issues.
  • scripts/validate_ddm.py was tested against clean and deliberately broken workbooks (PASS/exit 0 and FAIL/exit 1), plus edge cases: a 0% (no-growth) perpetuity, per-share vs aggregate value bases, and vertical assumption layouts.
  • The worked two-stage example's arithmetic was verified independently (intrinsic value ≈ $42.52; terminal value 77.1% of total).
  • The pre-commit hook auto-bumped financial-analysis plugin.json 0.1.1 → 0.1.2. The new skill is not bundled into any agent, so there is no sync drift and no other manifest change.

Frontmatter is name + description only, matching the existing vertical skills. This PR is self-contained and touches only the new skill directory plus the automatic version bump.

Adds an income-approach valuation skill — the DDM complement to the
existing dcf-model and comps-analysis skills. Values equity directly as
the present value of expected dividends discounted at the cost of equity
(not WACC), with single-/two-/three-stage (H-model) options, an
ROE-driven build for financials, a bundled openpyxl validator, deep
methodology reference, and a troubleshooting guide.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant