Add RiskModels partner plugin (equity risk decomposition, PIT fundamentals, cost of capital)

.claude-plugin/marketplace.json

@@ -118,6 +118,12 @@
       "source": "./plugins/partner-built/spglobal",
       "description": "S&P Global - Financial data and analytics skills including company tearsheets, earnings previews, and transaction summaries"
     },
+    {
+      "name": "riskmodels",
+      "displayName": "RiskModels",
+      "source": "./plugins/partner-built/riskmodels",
+      "description": "Decompose US equity and portfolio risk into market, sector, subsector, and stock-specific components with tradeable ETF hedge ratios, pull point-in-time fundamentals with a CAPM cost-of-capital layer, and rank names on residual risk using the hosted RiskModels MCP."
+    },
     {
       "name": "claude-for-msft-365-install",
       "displayName": "Claude for Microsoft 365 Install",

plugins/partner-built/riskmodels/.claude-plugin/plugin.json

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+{
+  "name": "riskmodels",
+  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "description": "Decompose US equity and portfolio risk into market, sector, subsector, and stock-specific components with tradeable ETF hedge ratios, pull point-in-time quarterly fundamentals with a CAPM cost-of-capital layer, and rank names on residual risk — via the hosted RiskModels MCP. Realized/historical analytics; not investment advice.",
+  "author": {
+    "name": "RiskModels (Blue Water Macro Corp.)"
+  }
+}

plugins/partner-built/riskmodels/.mcp.json

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "mcpServers": {
+    "riskmodels": {
+      "type": "http",
+      "url": "https://riskmodels.app/api/mcp/sse",
+      "headers": {
+        "Authorization": "Bearer ${RISKMODELS_API_KEY}"
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}

plugins/partner-built/riskmodels/CONNECTORS.md

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+# Connectors
+
+This plugin connects to the **RiskModels MCP Server** (`https://riskmodels.app/api/mcp/sse`),
+a single hosted MCP that serves US equity factor-risk, point-in-time fundamentals,
+cost of capital, and hedging tools — no additional connectors are needed. Unlike the
+licensed-terminal connectors elsewhere in this repo, RiskModels is a hosted service
+billed per call (free tier available); a key is set via `RISKMODELS_API_KEY`.
+
+## How Skills Reference Tools
+
+Skills reference MCP tools by their exact tool name (e.g. `riskmodels_decompose`,
+`riskmodels_get_fundamentals`). The tools are grouped into categories below.
+
+## Tool Categories
+
+| Category | Tools | Description |
+|----------|-------|-------------|
+| Risk Decomposition | `riskmodels_get_hedge_levels`, `riskmodels_decompose`, `get_metrics`, `riskmodels_portfolio_decompose` | L1/L2/L3 market/sector/subsector/residual decomposition with ETF hedge ratios |
+| Fundamentals | `riskmodels_get_fundamentals` | Point-in-time quarterly fundamentals, ratios, CAPM cost-of-capital layer, SEC-sourced raw line items |
+| Hedging | `riskmodels_hedge_position`, `riskmodels_hedge_portfolio`, `riskmodels_analyze_portfolio`, `riskmodels_get_lstar`, `riskmodels_batch_lstar` | Scale ETF hedge legs to notionals; Lstar residual isolation |
+| Rankings & Signals | `riskmodels_get_rankings`, `riskmodels_screen_rankings`, `riskmodels_get_residual_signal` | Cross-sectional percentile ranks; residual mean-reversion signal |
+| Return Attribution | `riskmodels_get_return_attribution`, `riskmodels_get_returns` | Daily return split into L1/L2/L3 factor + residual components |
+| Discovery | `riskmodels_search_tickers`, `riskmodels_search_etfs`, `riskmodels_get_etf_holdings`, `riskmodels_search_filers`, `riskmodels_get_filer_holdings` | Resolve names/symbols; fetch real ETF and 13F-filer holdings |
+| Capabilities | `riskmodels_list_endpoints`, `riskmodels_get_capability` | Enumerate the live capability surface (free) |
+
+## Complete Tool Reference
+
+### Risk Decomposition
+- **`riskmodels_get_hedge_levels`** — L1/L2/L3 hedge snapshots side by side: hedge ratios (`*_hr`), explained-risk fractions (`*_er`), and the ETF legs (market/sector/subsector) at each depth.
+- **`riskmodels_decompose`** — L3 four-bet decomposition (market / sector / subsector / residual) for one name.
+- **`get_metrics`** — latest snapshot: hedge ratios, ER fractions, volatility, close, market cap.
+- **`riskmodels_portfolio_decompose`** — decompose a weighted portfolio into the four layers.
+
+### Fundamentals
+- **`riskmodels_get_fundamentals`** — point-in-time quarterly fundamentals: rows visible only where `filed_date <= as_of`. Returns TTM profitability and capital-return ratios, leverage, ERM3 cascade betas, a CAPM cost-of-capital layer (`cost_of_equity`, `wacc`, `economic_profit`; caller `erp` / `rf_tenor`, `grid=true` for sensitivity), an equity-bridge decomposition, and `sec_facts` — raw line items per cell where the serving value is SEC XBRL.
+
+### Hedging
+- **`riskmodels_hedge_position`** — scale one ticker's ETF hedge ratios to a dollar position.
+- **`riskmodels_hedge_portfolio`** — hedge ratios at L1/L2/L3, scaled by notionals, aggregated into ETF USD legs for a book.
+- **`riskmodels_analyze_portfolio`** — holdings-weighted L1/L2/L3 hedge-level aggregate.
+- **`riskmodels_get_lstar`** / **`riskmodels_batch_lstar`** — dispatch the simplest cascade level clearing the marginal-ER threshold; return residual-return series (single / up to 100 tickers).
+
+### Rankings & Signals
+- **`riskmodels_get_rankings`** — where a name sits in its sector/universe percentile for a metric.
+- **`riskmodels_screen_rankings`** — full cross-section percentile/decile rank screen, server-side.
+- **`riskmodels_get_residual_signal`** — aggregate L3 residual mean-reversion signal across a basket.
+
+### Return Attribution
+- **`riskmodels_get_return_attribution`** — daily gross return split into additive L1/L2/L3 factor, combined-factor, and residual return series.
+- **`riskmodels_get_returns`** — daily returns with L1/L2/L3 hedge ratios and risk decomposition.
+
+### Discovery
+- **`riskmodels_search_tickers`** — search tickers by symbol or company name.
+- **`riskmodels_search_etfs`** / **`riskmodels_get_etf_holdings`** — resolve an ETF and fetch its holdings.
+- **`riskmodels_search_filers`** / **`riskmodels_get_filer_holdings`** — resolve a 13F filer (by name / CIK / LEI) and fetch its top holdings.
+
+### Capabilities
+- **`riskmodels_list_endpoints`** — enumerate the live public capability surface (free).
+- **`riskmodels_get_capability`** — full details for one capability by id (free).

plugins/partner-built/riskmodels/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+# RiskModels Equity Risk Plugin
+
+Decompose US equity and portfolio risk, pull point-in-time fundamentals, and compute a
+CAPM cost of capital using the hosted **RiskModels** MCP — a subscription-light data
+source that can stand in for a licensed-terminal connector in equity-risk and valuation
+workflows.
+
+## What This Plugin Does
+
+This plugin packages the RiskModels MCP tools into equity-analysis skills that stitch
+together multiple tool calls: decompose a name or book into market / sector / subsector /
+stock-specific risk with tradeable ETF hedge ratios, build hedge legs scaled to
+notionals, and compute cost of equity / WACC / economic profit from point-in-time
+fundamentals. It is the equity-risk analog of this repo's fixed-income partner analytics.
+
+## The swap thesis
+
+Every data MCP elsewhere in this repo points at a licensed terminal
+(`${FACTSET_MCP_URL}`, `${CAPIQ_MCP_URL}`, and peers). RiskModels is a single hosted
+MCP — point a `.mcp.json` server entry (or a `data-puller` env var) at
+`https://riskmodels.app/api/mcp/sse` to source equity risk decomposition, PIT
+fundamentals, and cost of capital without an enterprise data license. Install is free;
+usage is billed per call, from $0.005.
+
+## Skills
+
+| Skill | Domain knowledge |
+|-------|-----------------|
+| `equity-risk-decomposition` | ERM3 L1/L2/L3 cascade, explained-risk attribution, ETF hedge-ratio framing, residual (idiosyncratic) risk |
+| `cost-of-capital` | CAPM cost of equity, book-weight WACC, economic profit, caller-supplied ERP and rf-tenor sensitivity |
+| `portfolio-hedge` | ETF hedge-leg construction scaled to notionals, Lstar residual isolation, real-holdings resolution |
+
+## Integrations
+
+This plugin connects to the **RiskModels MCP Server**, which serves US equity
+factor-risk, fundamentals, cost-of-capital, and hedging tools across these domains:
+
+- **Risk Decomposition** — L1/L2/L3 market / sector / subsector / residual with ETF hedge ratios
+- **Fundamentals** — point-in-time quarterly ratios, CAPM cost-of-capital layer, SEC-sourced raw line items
+- **Hedging** — position and portfolio ETF hedge legs; Lstar residual isolation
+- **Rankings & Signals** — cross-sectional ranks and the residual mean-reversion signal
+- **Return Attribution** — daily return split into L1/L2/L3 factor + residual components
+
+See [CONNECTORS.md](CONNECTORS.md) for the complete tool reference.
+
+## Requirements
+
+- A RiskModels API key (free tier available; usage billed per call). Get one at
+  **https://riskmodels.app/get-key**.
+- Set it in your environment before use:
+
+  ```bash
+  export RISKMODELS_API_KEY="rm_agent_live_..."
+  ```
+
+  The bundled `.mcp.json` reads `${RISKMODELS_API_KEY}` as a Bearer token.
+
+## Data scope and disclaimers
+
+- **PIT-normalized fundamentals derived from SEC filings and licensed sources.** Raw
+  line items are exposed per cell only where the serving value is SEC XBRL (`sec_facts`);
+  other cells are derived. The panel is not a full raw-fundamentals feed.
+- **Cost of capital is CAPM** (risk-free at the chosen tenor + conditional market beta ×
+  caller-supplied ERP); the ERP is never assumed. WACC uses book-value weights.
+- **Realized/historical analytics only.** These skills report model outputs —
+  decomposition, hedge ratios, ranks, cost of capital — as analyst work product staged
+  for human sign-off. RiskModels is an analytical tool, **not an investment adviser**:
+  nothing here is a recommendation, price target, or suitability assessment.

plugins/partner-built/riskmodels/skills/cost-of-capital/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+---
+name: cost-of-capital
+description: Compute a CAPM cost of equity, cost of debt, book-weight WACC, and economic profit for a US equity from its point-in-time fundamentals, with the equity risk premium and risk-free tenor supplied by the caller and an ERP × rf-tenor sensitivity grid. Use when a model or analysis needs a name's WACC, cost of equity, hurdle rate, or economic profit instead of a licensed-terminal input.
+---
+
+# Cost of Capital (CAPM)
+
+You are a valuation analyst. Use the RiskModels MCP to produce a name's cost of capital
+from its point-in-time fundamentals — a hosted, subscription-light substitute for a
+licensed-terminal WACC input in a DCF or comps build. Cost of equity is CAPM: the
+risk-free rate at the chosen tenor plus the ERM3 conditional market beta times the
+caller-supplied equity risk premium. Let the tool compute; you supply the assumptions
+and interpret.
+
+## Core Principles
+
+Cost of capital is only as meaningful as its assumptions, so surface them every time.
+The equity risk premium is **always caller-supplied** — never assume or hardcode one;
+if the caller has not fixed an ERP, report across the sensitivity grid. WACC here uses
+book-value weights; the textbook convention is market-value weights, so say which you
+are reporting. This is a CAPM cost of capital — do not describe any layered or
+factor-decomposed cost-of-capital methodology.
+
+## Available MCP Tools
+
+- **`riskmodels_get_fundamentals`** — the cost-of-capital layer rides on this tool.
+  Parameters that matter here:
+  - **`erp`** — equity risk premium. Caller-supplied; state it in every answer.
+  - **`rf_tenor`** — Treasury constant-maturity tenor (`3m|1y|2y|5y|10y|30y`, default
+    `10y`, the long-duration valuation convention).
+  - **`tax_rate`** — applied to the WACC debt shield (default 0.21).
+  - **`grid=true`** with `erp_grid` / `rf_tenor_grid` — returns the sensitivity table of
+    `cost_of_equity` / `wacc` / `economic_profit` across every ERP × tenor cell.
+- **`riskmodels_search_tickers`** — resolve a company name to a ticker first.
+
+## Tool Chaining Workflow
+
+1. **Resolve the symbol** if a name was given (`riskmodels_search_tickers`).
+2. **Fix the assumptions:** get the ERP and tenor from the caller. If no ERP is given,
+   plan to use `grid=true` and report the range.
+3. **Call `riskmodels_get_fundamentals`** with `erp`, `rf_tenor`, `tax_rate` (and
+   `grid=true` for the sensitivity table). Extract `cost_of_equity`, `cost_of_debt`,
+   `wacc`, `economic_profit`, and the `rf_rate` used.
+4. **Interpret:** report the scalar (or grid), always naming the ERP, tenor, and tax rate.
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Cost of Capital (state ERP, rf_tenor, tax_rate used)
+| Metric | Value |
+|--------|-------|
+| Risk-free rate (tenor) | ... |
+| Cost of equity (CAPM) | ... |
+| Cost of debt | ... |
+| WACC (book weights) | ... |
+| Economic profit | ... |
+
+### Sensitivity (when `grid=true`)
+A table of WACC / cost of equity across the `erp_grid` × `rf_tenor_grid` cells.
+
+### Notes
+Because `beta_market` is a short-half-life conditional beta, a defensive name's cost of
+equity can sit below the risk-free rate — a property of the beta, not an error; state it
+plainly. Flag that WACC uses book-value weights (recompute with market weights if you
+have market caps), and that a short `rf_tenor` should be paired with a bill-basis ERP.
+
+## Boundary
+
+These are model outputs from realized fundamentals and caller-supplied assumptions —
+not a valuation opinion, price target, or recommendation. RiskModels is an analytical
+tool, not an investment adviser. Always state the assumptions behind any number and call
+the tool before quoting figures.

plugins/partner-built/riskmodels/skills/equity-risk-decomposition/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+---
+name: equity-risk-decomposition
+description: Decompose a US equity's or portfolio's risk into market, sector, subsector, and stock-specific (residual) components with the tradeable ETF hedge ratios each layer implies, using the RiskModels ERM3 cascade. Use when analyzing what is driving a name's risk, how idiosyncratic it is, what an ETF hedge of a given leg would neutralize, or how a book's risk aggregates.
+---
+
+# Equity Risk Decomposition (ERM3 cascade)
+
+You are an equity risk analyst. Combine the RiskModels MCP tools to decompose a US
+stock or portfolio into a nested factor cascade — market → +sector → +subsector →
+residual — and report the ETF hedge ratios each layer implies. Let the tools compute;
+you route their outputs into the decomposition table and synthesize the read. This is
+the equity analog of a fixed-income spread decomposition: the residual (what's left
+after market, sector, and subsector) is the stock-specific component.
+
+## Core Principles
+
+Risk decomposition is about *where a name's variance lives* and *what would
+mechanically neutralize each layer*. Always read the explained-risk fractions (`*_er`,
+which sum to ~1.0 at L3), not the signs of the hedge ratios, to attribute variance. A
+high residual fraction means most of the risk is idiosyncratic and not hedgeable with
+sector/market ETFs. Hedge ratios are model outputs (dollars of an ETF leg that
+neutralize $1 of a layer), like a beta — report them as math, never as a trade.
+
+## Available MCP Tools
+
+- **`riskmodels_get_hedge_levels`** — L1/L2/L3 hedge snapshots side by side: hedge
+  ratios (`*_hr`), explained-risk fractions (`*_er`), and the ETF legs at each depth.
+- **`riskmodels_decompose`** — the L3 four-bet decomposition (market / sector /
+  subsector / residual) for a single name.
+- **`get_metrics`** — latest snapshot (hedge ratios, ER fractions, vol, close, market cap).
+- **`riskmodels_portfolio_decompose`** — decompose a weighted portfolio into the four layers.
+- **`riskmodels_search_tickers`** — resolve a company name to a ticker first.
+- **`riskmodels_get_return_attribution`** — daily return split into additive L1/L2/L3
+  factor + residual components (optional, for return- rather than risk-attribution).
+
+## Tool Chaining Workflow
+
+1. **Resolve the symbol:** if given a company name, call `riskmodels_search_tickers`.
+2. **Pull the cascade:** call `riskmodels_get_hedge_levels` (single name) or
+   `riskmodels_portfolio_decompose` (weighted book). Extract `*_er` and `*_hr` at L1/L2/L3
+   and the ETF legs (`hedge_etfs`: market/sector/subsector).
+3. **Read where variance lives:** at L3, use `l3_mkt_er`, `l3_sec_er`, `l3_sub_er`,
+   `l3_res_er` (they sum to ~1.0). The residual fraction is the idiosyncratic share.
+4. **Frame the hedge legs:** scale each ETF leg's hedge ratio into "what $1 of position
+   would need" — e.g. "$0.94 of SPY neutralizes the market leg."
+5. **Synthesize:** state where the risk sits and what each leg would neutralize.
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Risk Decomposition (explained-risk fractions)
+| Level | Market ER | Sector ER | Subsector ER | Residual ER | ETF legs |
+|-------|-----------|-----------|--------------|-------------|----------|
+| L1 | ... | — | — | ... | SPY |
+| L2 | ... | ... | — | ... | SPY, sector |
+| L3 | ... | ... | ... | ... | SPY, sector, subsector |
+
+### Hedge Legs (L3)
+| Leg | ETF | Hedge ratio | Neutralizes |
+|-----|-----|-------------|-------------|
+| Market | SPY | ... | $X of SPY per $1 of position |
+| Sector | (e.g. XLK) | ... | ... |
+| Subsector | (e.g. SMH) | ... | ... |
+
+### Read
+State where the variance sits (market vs sector vs stock-specific), how idiosyncratic
+the name is (residual ER), and what each ETF leg would mechanically neutralize. A
+negative market hedge ratio is **not** "negative market exposure": at L2/L3 the sector
+and subsector legs already carry market beta, and the SPY leg offsets what is embedded
+in them (orthogonalization) — never infer market stance from the sign of `l3_market_hr`.
+
+## Boundary
+
+RiskModels is an analytical tool, not an investment adviser. Report the decomposition,
+ranks, and what each hedge leg would neutralize — never a recommendation to buy, sell,
+hedge, trim, or rebalance, and never a suitability assessment. No options, swaps, or
+derivatives — ETF legs only. Always call the tools before quoting any figure; never
+invent numbers.