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Added Vol. 6
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[思考香港系列 5:《抗爭: 靈性的思考》](https://github.com/bennytai/HongKongReflections/releases/download/v5.0/HongKongReflections-05-v1.0.pdf)

[思考香港系列 6:《罪名是散播希望: 希望的思考》](https://github.com/bennytai/HongKongReflections/releases/download/v6.0/HongKongReflections-06-v1.0.pdf)

## **作者**

![alt-text](./images/profile_pic.jpg "戴耀廷")
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* [15 愛](思考香港5/15--愛.md)
* [16 和平](思考香港5/16--和平.md)
* [結語](思考香港5/結語.md)


-----
* [思考香港6:《罪名是散播希望: 希望的思考》](思考香港6/README.md)
* [前言](思考香港6/前言.md)
* [Preface](思考香港6/Preface.md)
* [1 公民抗命的最大殺傷力武器](思考香港6/1--公民抗命的最大殺傷力武器.md)
* [2 The Most Lethal Weapon of Civil Disobedience](思考香港6/2--The Most Lethal Weapon of Civil Disobedience.md)
* [3 首次陳詞、最後一課](思考香港6/3--首次陳詞、最後一課.md)
* [4 First Submission, Last Lecture](思考香港6/4--First Submission, Last Lecture.md)
* [作者](思考香港6/作者.md)

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38 changes: 38 additions & 0 deletions 思考香港6/1--公民抗命的最大殺傷力武器.md
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# 1 公民抗命的最大殺傷力武器

梁振英應不會在《施政報告》中對2017年和2020年實現真普選有任何具體承諾。爭取落實真普選是不少港人幾十年來的盼望,下一回政改討論已不能把這問題拖下去。不過,以現時形勢看,北京會讓香港有真普選的機會實在不大。那麼支持實現真普選的港人、泛民政黨和公民社會還有什麼可做?
過去的策略包括舉行大型遊行(如2003 年七一大遊行)、變相公投(如上一回政改時的五區公投)、佔領政府總部配合絕食(如反國教科時的公民廣場),但面對政改,這些行動能有多大成效,實在成疑,因為北京不想香港有真普選的意願可能太強,而這些策略所產生的壓力可能還不足夠;因此,要爭取香港落實真普選,可能要準備「殺傷力」更大的武器——佔領中環。
行動以非暴力的公民抗命方式,由示威者違法地長期佔領中環要道,以癱瘓香港的政經中心,迫使北京改變立場。要能產生足夠的「殺傷力」,這行動要符合以下原則:

一、 **人數**

參與人數必須超過一個關鍵數目,若人數太少,警方可輕易抬走示威者。只要人數超過關鍵數目,在香港,有一萬人以上應可以達到效果,警方除非出動催淚彈和防暴隊,否則不能驅散示威者。要迫使警方使用更大武力,就是把政府處理這次行動所要付出的政治代價增加。當然人數愈多,效果愈大。

二、 **意見領袖**

參與行動的人要包括社會的意見領袖,尤其是一些過去不曾違法,或不屬激進的政治領袖、前任官員、宗教領袖、學者等。他們的參與,顯示爭議已到關鍵時刻,連這些意見領袖也要被迫以公民抗命的方式表達立場,對整體社會可產生強大的感召力。最好的例子就是印度的甘地和美國的馬丁路德金領導的公民抗命運動。

三、 **非暴力**

公民抗命的力量在於以違法、但非暴力方式去感召廣大群眾的正義感。一旦涉及暴力,將會大大削弱感召力。要產生最好的效果,組織者可以事前向全港表明,會在某一天某一刻進行佔領行動,並讓參與的人事前簽訂誓言書,明確表明不會使用暴力,只會和平佔領中環要道。
正式行動前,組織者可在進入中環的路口張貼清楚告示,讓駕駛者知道行動將要開始,不要把車輛駛入受影響的地區。示威者要在交通燈號轉為紅色和車輛都停了下來之後,才開始在各路口一起走到馬路中央,那就不會影響到自己及其他人的安全。

四、 **持續**

佔領行動必須持續,那才能產生和累積足夠的政治能量。換言之,就是把公民廣場搬到中環去。一旦佔領開始,支援者可把各種物資搬到中環要道,建立廣播中心,並盡快透過互聯網及其他媒體直接向全港市民廣播訴求和訊息。行動更可把快樂抗爭加進去,在街頭舉辦嘉年華會式的集會。這必會把整個行動吸引全世界的關注,把施予對手的政治壓力加大。

五、 **承擔罪責**

公民抗命的行動屬違法行為,所以參與者必須在誓言書表明會承擔罪責。行動結束後,參與者應自行向執法部門自首,交執法部門決定是否對作出起訴。這也是保持此行動的政治感召力的重要部分。

六、 **時機**

佔領中環是大「殺傷力」武器,絕不可以隨便使用,必須到了最後時刻,也是到了港人追求真普選的夢想徹底幻滅時才可使用。時機把握不好,一方面不能召集足夠的力量參與,另一方面對其他人也不能產生出足夠的政治震撼力。

七、 **事先張揚**

其實這大「殺傷力」武器並不需要真的使用,只要對手知道這大「殺傷力」武器存在,已可能產生作用。故此,大「殺傷力」武器不是秘密武器,反而要事先張揚,這也是為何在事前要參與者簽訂誓言書。一旦收集過萬人包括多位意見領袖的誓言書,組織者已開始實質部署行動,那就已可能給對手產生強大的政治壓力。

八、 **目標**

我們必須明白,行動的最終目標是要在香港實現真普選,因此無論行動是否已付緒實行,一旦對手表明願意回到談判桌討論落實真普選的具體措施,那就要結束行動。若對手沒有依從承諾,行動可再次進行。
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# 2 The Most Lethal Weapon of Civil Disobedience

It is very likely that C.Y. Leung will not make any concrete promise in his Policy Address concerning the implementation of genuine universal suffrage in 2017 and 2020. To strive for the implementation of genuine universal suffrage has been the hope of many Hong Kong people for many years. This matter should not be dragged on in the next round of debate of the constitutional reform. However, judging from the present situation, the chance that Beijing will allow Hong Kong to have genuine universal suffrage is not high. For the Hong Kong people who support the implementation of genuine universal suffrage, the political parties of the pan-democratic camp and the civil society, what can be done?

The effectiveness of past strategies including organizing large scale procession (like the July 1st Rally in 2003), de facto referendum (like the REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN IN FIVE GEOGRAPHICAL CONSTITUENCIES in the last round of constitutional reform), and occupation of the Government Headquarter with hunger strike (like what happened at the Civic Square during the Anti-National Curriculum Movement) is questionable. Beijing’s intention of not allowing Hong Kong to have genuine universal suffrage may be too strong and the pressure generated from these strategies may still be not enough. Therefore, in order to strive for the implementation of genuine universal suffrage in Hong Kong, we might have to prepare a weapon that is more “lethal”: Occupy Central.

The action is a form of non-violent civil disobedience with protesters occupying main streets in Central illegally for a prolong period. Its objective is to paralyze the political and economic centre of Hong Kong to force Beijing to change its stance. In other to generate sufficient “lethality,” the action has to comply with the following principles:

1\. **Number**

The number of people participating must be beyond a critical figure. If the number is too small, the Police can remove the protesters easily. Once the number reaches beyond a critical figure, the Police will not be able to disperse the protesters unless they use tear gas and send in the Anti-riot Squad. In Hong Kong, more than 10,000 people should be able to generate the effect. Making the Police to use a higher degree of force will raise the political cost of the Government in handling this action. The more the people, the bigger will be the effect.

2\. **Opinion Leaders**

People participating in this action must include opinion leaders in the society, especially political leaders, ex-government officials, religious leaders and scholars who have never breached the law and are not radical. Their participation will indicate that the controversy has arrived at a critical moment and even opinion leaders like them are forced to use civil disobedience to express their stance. This will generate a strong appeal to the whole society. The best examples are the civil disobedience movements led by Gandhi in India and Martin Luther King in the United States.

3\. Non-violence

The power of civil disobedience is generated from the illegal but non-violent method appealing to the sense of justice of the general public. If there is any violence, the appeal will be very much weakened. To generate the best effect, the organizers have to make a public announcement in advance that they will go ahead to occupy on a particular day at a particular moment. Those who participate have to sign an oath declaring clearly that they will not use violence and will only occupy the main streets in Central peacefully.
Before the action is taken, the organizers may put up clears signs at junctures leading to Central to warn the drivers that the action is going to start so that they can avoid driving their cars into the affected areas. The protesters should wait until the traffic lights have turned red and all cars have stopped before they walked into the median section of the road from the junctures. Personal safety of the protesters and other people will then not be threatened.

4\. **Continuity**

To generate and accumulate sufficient political energy, the action to occupy has to be continuous. In another words, the Civic Square will be moved to Central. Once the occupation starts, supporters will bring in all kinds of reinforcement to the main streets in Central. A broadcast centre will be established for the demands and messages of the action to be broadcasted to all people in Hong Kong through the Internet and other media. The action may add in elements of happy protest and there can be carnival-style meetings in the street. The whole action should be able to attract international attention and more political pressure upon the opponent can then be generated.

5\. **Bearing legal responsibility**

Action of civil disobedience is illegal. All participants need to declare clearly in the oath that they are going to bear the legal responsibility. After the action, participants will turn themselves in to the enforcement agency for the prosecution department to decide whether they should be prosecuted. This is an important part of the action to maintain its political appeal.

6\. **Timing**

As Occupy Central is a “lethal” weapon, it should never be used lightly. It should only be taken as the last resort when Hong Kong people’s dream for genuine universal suffrage is totally dashed. If the timing is not right, not only that it will fail to gather sufficient number of people to participate, the political impact generated may not be big enough to shock anyone.

7\. **Announcement in advance**

If the opponent knows the existence of this “lethal" weapon, it may not need to be actually used. Therefore, a “lethal" weapon does not need to be a secret weapon. On the contrary, it has to be announced in advance. This is also the reason why participants need to sign the oath in advance. If we can collect the oaths of ten thousand people including the oaths by opinion leaders, the organizers would have already started the actual action of deployment. Immense political pressure may have been generated upon the opponent.

8\. **Goal**

We need to understand that the ultimate goal of the action is the implementation of genuine universal suffrage in Hong Kong. Therefore, no matter the action is actually taken or not, it should come to an end once the opponent expresses his intention to come back to the negotiation table to discuss the concrete measures in implementing genuine universal suffrage. If the opponent fails to honour his promise, the action can then be resumed.
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