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feat: add minority opinion detection for ranking disagreements #129

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@bledden bledden commented Jan 6, 2026

Summary

Adds minority opinion detection to flag when a significant portion of council members disagree with the consensus ranking.

  • Detection algorithm: Flags when ≥30% of rankers place a model more than 1 position away from its tournament-based consensus position
  • Direction indication: Shows whether dissenters think the model is overvalued (ranked too high) or undervalued (ranked too low) by consensus
  • Frontend display: Yellow warning card in Stage 2 showing dissent details

Changes

Backend (backend/council.py):

  • New detect_minority_opinions() function
  • Uses tournament ranking as the consensus baseline
  • Returns: model, consensus_position, dissent_positions, dissent_rate, dissenters, direction
  • Configurable threshold (default 30%) and position tolerance (default 1)
  • Integrated into run_full_council() metadata

Frontend:

  • Stage2.jsx: Added minorityOpinions prop and display component
  • Stage2.css: Added warning-styled card with overvalued/undervalued badges
  • ChatInterface.jsx: Pass minority_opinions to Stage2

Validation

8 test cases in tests/test_minority_opinions.py:

Test Description
test_no_minority_when_consensus No false positives when all rankers agree
test_minority_detected_with_dissent Correctly detects 33% dissent (1/3 rankers)
test_minority_direction_undervalued Correctly identifies "undervalued" direction
test_below_threshold_not_flagged 25% dissent (below 30%) not flagged
test_within_tolerance_not_flagged ±1 position difference within tolerance
test_empty_inputs Handles edge cases gracefully
test_5_model_realistic_scenario 40% dissent correctly detected in 5-model council
test_custom_threshold Custom thresholds work correctly 
$ python3 tests/test_minority_opinions.py
✓ No minority when consensus - PASSED
✓ Minority detected with dissent - PASSED
✓ Minority direction undervalued - PASSED
✓ Below threshold not flagged - PASSED
✓ Within tolerance not flagged - PASSED
✓ Empty inputs - PASSED
✓ 5-model realistic scenario - PASSED
✓ Custom threshold - PASSED

==================================================
All minority opinion tests passed!
==================================================

Dependencies

This PR builds on the tournament ranking feature (PR #128) which provides the consensus baseline.

Test plan

  • Run python3 tests/test_minority_opinions.py - all 8 tests pass
  • Start the app and submit a query to verify minority opinions display correctly
  • Verify no minority opinions shown when council has strong consensus

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

bledden and others added 3 commits January 5, 2026 18:26
@bledden @claude
Add tournament-style pairwise ranking aggregation
b1bbb9a 
Adds calculate_tournament_rankings() as an alternative to simple mean ranking.

Algorithm:
- Convert ordinal rankings to pairwise matchups
- For each pair of models, majority vote determines winner
- Ties awarded 0.5 points to each
- Final score = wins / total_matchups

Benefits over mean ranking:
- More robust to outlier rankings
- Theoretically principled (Condorcet-style)
- Handles cyclic preferences gracefully

Both ranking methods now included in metadata:
- aggregate_rankings: mean position (existing)
- tournament_rankings: pairwise win percentage (new)

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <[email protected]>
@bledden @claude
docs: add tournament ranking validation documentation to README
9d49e25 
Documents the tournament-style pairwise comparison algorithm with:
- Explanation of why it's more robust than mean averaging
- Concrete example showing self-promotion bias scenario
- Tables comparing mean vs tournament results
- Outlier robustness validation (mean degrades 1.0→1.5, tournament stays 100%)
- Summary of validation test coverage

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <[email protected]>
@bledden @claude
feat: add minority opinion detection for ranking disagreements
5a7e404 
Detects when ≥30% of rankers significantly disagree with the consensus
ranking for a model (placing it more than 1 position away from consensus).

Backend changes:
- Add detect_minority_opinions() function to council.py
- Uses tournament ranking as consensus baseline
- Reports dissent rate, positions, dissenters, and direction (overvalued/undervalued)
- Configurable threshold (default 30%) and position tolerance (default 1)
- Include minority_opinions in run_full_council metadata

Frontend changes:
- Add minorityOpinions prop to Stage2 component
- Display minority opinions in a warning-styled card
- Show direction badges (overvalued in red, undervalued in green)
- List consensus position, dissent positions, and dissenter models

Validation tests:
- 8 test cases covering consensus, dissent detection, direction,
  threshold filtering, tolerance, edge cases, and realistic scenarios

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <[email protected]>
@bledden bledden mentioned this pull request Jan 6, 2026
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@bledden