Add BS Pod NFL over-under tracking

PLAN.md

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+# BS Pod Over/Unders
+
+## Status
+
+Canonical CSV, dbt model/tests, Evidence queries, the NFC summary page, sidebar ordering, and conditional pick formatting are implemented. The full pipeline and Evidence production build pass. Local preview is running on `feature/bs-pod-over-unders`.
+
+## Goal
+
+Show what Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal picked for each NFC team's regular-season win total, then track those picks live and settle them after the regular season.
+
+## Scope decisions
+
+- Cover the current 2026 NFC season only.
+- Use a one-time, manually reviewed transcript extraction.
+- Keep one canonical Bill pick and one canonical Sal pick per team.
+- Retain episode date and transcript or episode URL for provenance.
+- Require manual review for ambiguous or conflicting transcript statements; never guess.
+- Compare picks against regular-season wins.
+- Show live status as `On track` or `Behind`.
+- Count only settled picks in Bill and Sal's aggregate records. Track open picks and pushes separately.
+- Keep the picks in one place on the current-season, NFC-only `BS Pod Over/Unders` summary page.
+
+## Canonical CSV
+
+Proposed path: `data/nfl/bs_pod_over_unders.csv`
+
+Required columns:
+
+```text
+season,speaker,team,pick,line,episode_date,episode_url
+```
+
+Field rules:
+
+- `season`: integer season start year, currently `2026`.
+- `speaker`: `Bill Simmons` or `Cousin Sal`.
+- `team`: exact long team name used by the existing NFL ratings source.
+- `pick`: `over` or `under`.
+- `line`: numeric win-total line, preserving decimal values.
+- `line` is the common market line for the segment; alternate lines mentioned in discussion are not canonical.
+- `episode_date`: ISO date.
+- `episode_url`: canonical source URL.
+- Exactly one row per `(season, speaker, team)` after review.
+- No transcript quote is required in the app; provenance is episode/date/link only.
+
+## Status and settlement logic
+
+- Required wins for an over are strictly greater than the line.
+- Required wins for an under are strictly less than the line.
+- Final equality is a push.
+- Before the season ends, `On track` means current completed wins are already on the selected side of the line; otherwise show `Behind`. A pick remains open until the regular season is complete.
+- Aggregate speaker records count only settled wins, losses, and pushes; open picks are displayed separately.
+
+## Implementation outline
+
+1. Use the supplied current-season NFC transcript and manually extract both speakers' explicit win-total picks.
+2. Review ambiguous rows and normalize every team to the existing NFL team names.
+3. Add the reviewed CSV as a DuckDB/dbt source under `data/nfl`.
+4. Add a dbt model that validates the canonical rows, joins current regular-season wins, and computes live and final statuses.
+5. Add Evidence queries for the summary scoreboard, projected wins, and pick statuses.
+6. Add `evidence/pages/nfl/bs-pod-over-unders.md` for the current-season scoreboard.
+7. Set the NFL sidebar order and conditionally format the Bill and Sal pick cells.
+8. Verify CSV cardinality, dbt models, full pipeline, and Evidence production build.
+
+## Acceptance criteria
+
+- All 16 NFC teams have one reviewed Bill row and one reviewed Sal row, for exactly 32 rows.
+- Every row has a valid `over`/`under` pick, numeric line, canonical team, episode date, and source URL.
+- The summary page shows both picks, lines, projected wins, live status, and provenance link.
+- The summary page shows Bill and Sal settled wins, losses, pushes, open picks, and all team rows.
+- Live statuses update from the existing regular-season results data.
+- Final equal-to-line outcomes are represented as pushes.
+- The existing NBA/NFL pipeline and Evidence build continue to complete successfully.
+
+## Explicit non-goals
+
+- Automated transcript fetching or parsing.
+- Historical seasons.
+- ROI or betting-profit calculations.
+- Verbatim transcript quotes in the UI.

data/nfl/bs_pod_over_unders.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+season,speaker,team,pick,line,episode_date,episode_url
+2026,Bill Simmons,Philadelphia Eagles,over,10.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Philadelphia Eagles,under,10.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Dallas Cowboys,over,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Dallas Cowboys,under,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,New York Giants,under,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,New York Giants,under,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Washington Commanders,under,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Washington Commanders,over,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Detroit Lions,over,10.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Detroit Lions,under,10.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Green Bay Packers,under,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Green Bay Packers,over,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Chicago Bears,over,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Chicago Bears,under,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Minnesota Vikings,under,8.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Minnesota Vikings,under,8.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,over,8.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,under,8.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,New Orleans Saints,over,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,New Orleans Saints,under,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Atlanta Falcons,under,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Atlanta Falcons,under,7.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Carolina Panthers,over,6.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Carolina Panthers,over,6.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Los Angeles Rams,under,11.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Los Angeles Rams,over,11.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Seattle Seahawks,over,10.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Seattle Seahawks,over,10.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,San Francisco 49ers,over,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,San Francisco 49ers,over,9.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Bill Simmons,Arizona Cardinals,under,3.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house
+2026,Cousin Sal,Arizona Cardinals,under,3.5,2026-08-28,https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house

evidence/pages/nfl/bs-pod-over-unders.md

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+---
+queries:
+  - pod_picks: nfl/bs_pod_over_unders_summary.sql
+  - pod_records: nfl/bs_pod_over_unders_records.sql
+title: BS Pod Over/Unders
+sidebar_position: 4
+---
+
+# 2026 NFC BS Pod Over/Unders
+
+Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal's regular-season win-total picks for the NFC. `Proj wins` is the current simulation average; `Proj` shows whether that projection is over or under the listed win total. Picks remain open until the regular season is complete. `On track` means the current win total is already on the selected side of the line.
+
+[Episode transcript](https://podscripts.co/podcasts/the-bill-simmons-podcast/the-annual-nfc-overunders-with-bill-simmons-cousin-sal-and-joe-house)
+
+## Aggregate Records
+
+<DataTable data={pod_records} rows=2>
+    <Column id=speaker title="Picker"/>
+    <Column id=settled_wins title="Settled wins"/>
+    <Column id=settled_losses title="Settled losses"/>
+    <Column id=settled_pushes title="Settled pushes"/>
+    <Column id=open_picks title="Open picks"/>
+    <Column id=on_track title="On track"/>
+    <Column id=behind title="Behind"/>
+</DataTable>
+
+## Team-by-Team Picks
+
+<DataTable data={pod_picks} rows=16>
+    <Column id=division/>
+    <Column id=team/>
+    <Column id=win_total title="Win total"/>
+    <Column id=proj_wins title="Proj wins"/>
+    <Column id=proj title="Proj"/>
+    <Column id=bill_pick title="Bill pick"/>
+    <Column id=bill_status title="Bill status" align=center contentType=colorscale scaleColumn=bill_status_score colorMin=-1 colorMax=1 colorScale={['#9fadbd', '#0777b3']}/>
+    <Column id=sal_pick title="Sal pick"/>
+    <Column id=sal_status title="Sal status" align=center contentType=colorscale scaleColumn=sal_status_score colorMin=-1 colorMax=1 colorScale={['#9fadbd', '#0777b3']}/>
+</DataTable>

evidence/pages/nfl/index.md

@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ title: NFL Sim
 
 <center>
 
-🏈 [Teams](/nfl/teams) 🏈 
+🏈 [Teams](/nfl/teams) · [BS Pod Over/Unders](/nfl/bs-pod-over-unders) 🏈
 
  </center>
 

evidence/pages/nfl/predictions.md

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ queries:
   - past_games_summary_by_team: nfl/past_games_summary_by_team.sql
   - future_games: nfl/future_games.sql
   - teams: nfl/all_teams.sql
+sidebar_position: 3
 ---
 
 # Predictions

evidence/queries/nfl/bs_pod_over_unders_records.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+select
+    speaker,
+    count(*) filter (where regular_season_complete and final_result = 'Win') as settled_wins,
+    count(*) filter (where regular_season_complete and final_result = 'Loss') as settled_losses,
+    count(*) filter (where regular_season_complete and final_result = 'Push') as settled_pushes,
+    count(*) filter (where not regular_season_complete) as open_picks,
+    count(*) filter (where not regular_season_complete and live_status = 'On track') as on_track,
+    count(*) filter (where not regular_season_complete and live_status = 'Behind') as behind
+from src_nfl_bs_pod_over_unders
+where season = 2026
+    and conf = 'NFC'
+group by speaker
+order by speaker

evidence/queries/nfl/bs_pod_over_unders_summary.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+with team_picks as (
+    select
+        team,
+        max(division) as division,
+        max(line) as win_total,
+        max(pick) filter (where speaker = 'Bill Simmons') as bill_pick,
+        max(live_status) filter (where speaker = 'Bill Simmons') as bill_status,
+        max(pick) filter (where speaker = 'Cousin Sal') as sal_pick,
+        max(live_status) filter (where speaker = 'Cousin Sal') as sal_status
+    from src_nfl_bs_pod_over_unders
+    where season = 2026
+        and conf = 'NFC'
+    group by team
+)
+select
+    p.team,
+    p.division,
+    p.win_total,
+    round(r.avg_wins, 1) as proj_wins,
+    case
+        when r.avg_wins is null then null
+        when r.avg_wins > p.win_total then 'over'
+        when r.avg_wins < p.win_total then 'under'
+        else 'push'
+    end as proj,
+    p.bill_pick,
+    p.bill_status,
+    case
+        when p.bill_status = 'On track' then 1
+        when p.bill_status = 'Behind' then -1
+    end as bill_status_score,
+    p.sal_pick,
+    p.sal_status,
+    case
+        when p.sal_status = 'On track' then 1
+        when p.sal_status = 'Behind' then -1
+    end as sal_status_score
+from team_picks p
+left join src_nfl_reg_season_summary r on r.team = p.team
+order by p.division, p.team

evidence/sources/mdsbox/nfl/src_nfl_bs_pod_over_unders.sql

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+select * from nfl_bs_pod_over_unders

transform/models/_nfl_docs.yml

@@ -65,4 +65,69 @@ models:
           - not_null
       - name: win_total
         tests:
-          - not_null
+          - not_null
+  - name: nfl_bs_pod_over_unders
+    description: Current-season Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal NFC win-total picks with live settlement status.
+    tests:
+      - dbt_utils.unique_combination_of_columns:
+          combination_of_columns:
+            - season
+            - speaker
+            - team
+    columns:
+      - name: season
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: speaker
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+          - accepted_values:
+              values: ['Bill Simmons', 'Cousin Sal']
+      - name: team
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: conf
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+          - accepted_values:
+              values: ['NFC']
+      - name: division
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: pick
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+          - accepted_values:
+              values: ['over', 'under']
+      - name: line
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: episode_date
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: episode_url
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: games_played
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: scheduled_games
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: current_wins
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: current_losses
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: current_ties
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: regular_season_complete
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+      - name: live_status
+        tests:
+          - not_null
+          - accepted_values:
+              values: ['On track', 'Behind', 'Win', 'Loss', 'Push']

transform/models/_sources.yml

@@ -26,6 +26,8 @@ sources:
         description: nfl schedule
       - name: nfl_team_ratings
         description: nfl team ratings from vegas
+      - name: bs_pod_over_unders
+        description: Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal NFL win-total picks
   - name: ncaaf
     schema: psa
     meta: