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Data Science model to find an NBA player's prime seasons

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NBA-Prime

Overview

  • Building a data-driven model to find an NBA player's "prime"
  • To create the ultimate system for power ranking the NBA's greatest players (e.g. Why is player X the 27th best player of all time, and player Y the 28th? What separates the two?)
  • Check out the full articles on Medium > NBA Primes and Medium > MVP's
  • Sponsored by and providing model results and insights for the Hard in the Paint NBA Podcast
Hard in the Paint NBA Podcast Logo

Data

  • Using a variety of statistical metrics provided by Basketball Reference and NBA Stats
  • Created and calculated a custom statistic called M_VALUE to measure an NBA player's prime

Results

LeBron James

LeBron James Career Stats LBJ Raw Stats

What is LeBron James' Prime? Check the table below to find out!

Season Age Team Points Rebounds Assists FT% eFG% PER TS% M_VALUE
2011-12 27 MIA 27.1 7.9 6.2 0.771 0.554 30.7 0.605 0.4707
2012-13 28 MIA 26.8 8.0 7.3 0.753 0.603 31.6 0.64 0.5467
2013-14 29 MIA 27.1 6.9 6.3 0.75 0.61 29.3 0.649 0.4727

Preliminary ranking of MVP winners since 2000 by HITP

(2012 season was shortened)

Year Name Points Rebounds Assists HITP
2016 Stephen Curry 30.1 5.4 6.7 3.4904
2009 LeBron James 28.4 7.6 7.2 3.3874
2013 LeBron James 26.8 8 7.3 3.3405
2020 Giannis Antetokounmpo 29.5 13.6 5.6 3.2035
2018 James Harden 30.4 5.4 8.8 2.9601
2019 Giannis Antetokounmpo 27.7 12.5 5.9 2.916
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 29.7 13.6 3.8 2.9009
2014 Kevin Durant 32 7.4 5.5 2.8576
2011 Derrick Rose 25 4.1 7.7 2.759
2010 LeBron James 29.7 7.3 8.6 2.6684
2007 Dirk Nowitzki 24.6 8.9 3.4 2.599
2001 Allen Iverson 31.1 3.8 4.6 2.4869
2015 Stephen Curry 23.8 4.3 7.7 2.3975
2012 LeBron James 27.1 7.9 6.2 2.3731
2017 Russell Westbrook 31.6 10.7 10.4 2.2881
2002 Tim Duncan 25.5 12.7 3.7 2.203
2003 Tim Duncan 23.3 12.9 3.9 2.1901
2004 Kevin Garnett 24.2 13.9 5 2.1479
2008 Kobe Bryant 28.3 6.3 5.4 0.6903
2005 Steve Nash 15.5 3.3 11.5 0.5769
2006 Steve Nash 18.8 4.2 10.5 0.4307

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