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fixes #133
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VLucet committed May 25, 2023
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Expand Up @@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ Resource managers are becoming increasingly interested in how variation in ecosy

Surplus production models (SPMs) are one of the classic models used in fisheries and are based on modelling changes in the total biomass of a stock in a given location over time as a function of current stock abundance and fishing pressure [@walters_surplus_2008]. Classically, SPMs assume single unstructured stocks with purely logistic dynamics [@walters_surplus_2008] and, as such, have been of limited use for modelling more complex stocks. They are useful in data-poor contexts where the age structure of the population is not accessible or when age or length structure do not change substantially over time [@prager_suite_1994; @punt_extending_2003]. SPMs typically model spatially constant productivity. They also assume that populations are only affected by past abundance and fishing, which ignores stressors like climate change which affect growth rates independently of fishing pressure.

In the context of global warming and shifting ranges, fisheries productivity is likely to be a moving target [@karp_accounting_2019], and managers need better methods that account for varying productivity [@szuwalski_climate_2016]. The Northern Shrimp (*Pandalus borealis*) in the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves, which has undergone several periods of large-scale biomass change in the last two decades, despite a relatively constant harvest regime, is a prime example of a population thought to be affected by environmental conditions [@dfo_assessment_2019]. These populations currently lack a population model to understand the drivers of this change and to predict how fishing pressure and changing environmental conditions may affect future abundance, which managers are advised to account for.
In the context of climate change and shifting ranges, fisheries productivity is likely to be a moving target [@karp_accounting_2019], and managers need better methods that account for varying productivity [@szuwalski_climate_2016]. The Northern Shrimp (*Pandalus borealis*) in the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves, which has undergone several periods of large-scale biomass change in the last two decades, despite a relatively constant harvest regime, is a prime example of a population thought to be affected by environmental conditions [@dfo_assessment_2019]. These populations currently lack a population model to understand the drivers of this change and to predict how fishing pressure and changing environmental conditions may affect future abundance, which managers are advised to account for.

<!-- Any pop models, including SPMs, can either be process based or statistical: we decide to implement a statistical approach so that we can benefit from confidence intervals -->

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