Research on all things risk
The language of "risk" is highly flexible. Two people talking about "risk" may be speaking at each other entirely differently.
- https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/risk/#DefRis
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/risa.12464
risk = an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
risk = the cause of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
risk = the probability of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
risk = the statistical expectation value of an unwanted event which may or may not occur.
risk = the fact that a decision is made under conditions of known probabilities (“decision under risk” as opposed to “decision under uncertainty”)
Other definitions are used frequently. For instance, lacking a popular mitigation (Driving with no seatbelt) or something at stake, subject to other threats (a position in a stock).
"The clarity test" is described here.
Scenario Modeling vs Probabilitic Forecasting: Will it Rain Tuesday vs There is a 20% probability it will rain Thursday
The forecast is the %, from an average, from a model, from an expert, from a panel, etc
This section generally appeals to how experts can be queried for quantitative data. The process of doing so, industrial examples, history of.
Parimutuel betting (link)
This describes the practice of gathering up forecast material and, typically, averaging it together. Further described in Probabilistic Forecasts and Reproducing Scoring Systems
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9781402082016 <- De Finetti is the "father" of subjective bayesianism (which is at the heart of risk forecasting), and this book is a non-mathy introduction into the mathematics of it, but also what it "means"
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009MWR2945.1 <- this is a pretty good math paper discussing why logarithmic scoring rules are better
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B005NZMSM0/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1 <- "Red-Blooded Risk" - the author has a long career in financial risk management, and ... it's a strange book; it's a bit like going for a long walk with your cranky weird uncle in the second degree that is clearly a bit strange, but has read widely and rambles for a few hours about all the things he has read and seen. So it isn't very "structured", but still enlightening and enjoyable
https://www.amazon.com/Uncertain-Judgements-Eliciting-Experts-Probabilities/dp/0470029994/ref=sr_1_1 Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities 1st Edition