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Edit: A Bayesian model that exhibits overfitting (#10)
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yousuketakada committed Apr 7, 2018
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Expand Up @@ -1970,7 +1970,8 @@ \subsubsection*{#1}
suppose that the precision~$\beta$ of the target~$t$ in the likelihood~(3.8) is very large
whereas the precision~$\alpha$ of the parameters~$\mathbf{w}$ in the prior~(3.52) is very small
(i.e., the conditional distribution of $t$ given $\mathbf{w}$ is narrow whereas
the prior over $\mathbf{w}$ is broad so that the regularization is insufficient).
the prior over $\mathbf{w}$ is broad), leading to insufficient \emph{regularization}
(see also Section~3.1.4).
Then, the posterior~$p(\mathbf{w}|\bm{\mathsf{t}})$ given the data set~$\bm{\mathsf{t}}$ is
sharply peaked around the maximum likelihood estimate~$\mathbf{w}_{\text{ML}}$ and
the predictive~$p(t|\bm{\mathsf{t}})$ is also sharply peaked
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