Skip to content
Back to Milestones

Phase 2: Initial growth

New issue
Open
No due date
•Last updated May 27, 2026

During the rapidly change phase of the growth of an outbreak, we have some evidence of local transmission but there is still limited data for calibration. The focus of this stage is therefore calibration under data limited constraints, as in Phase 1, but now with increased intervention scenarios.

Model requirements

  1. NPIs that involve itinerary changes, such as school closure and stay-at-home orders
  2. Testing available
  3. Delay distributions for case detection and hospitalization of symptomatic infections
  4. School contact structure

Calibration targets

  1. Age-structured deaths and hospitalizations
  2. Line list data of cases detected
  3. Percent of individuals who test positive and randomly sampled serology

Modeling questions

  1. How big could the outbreak be without interventions (ICU, hospitalizations, deaths)?
  2. When and how long should different NPIs be implemented to meet certain criteria?
  3. What is the impact on ICU capacity due to relaxing planned NPIs?
29% complete

List view

0 issues of 19 selected