Ensemble eligibility criteria

To be included in the state or national ensemble, models must meet the following criteria.

May 11, 2020

• Models must be submitted by 6pm ET on Monday May 11.
• Models must have a forecast_date from Sunday or Monday.
• Models need to have all targets that we want to build an ensemble for: 1-4 wk ahead cum death.
• Models must pass the following two "plausibility checks":
  • the 10th quantile of the 1-week-ahead forecast must be above the last observed data for a given location.
  • when quantiles are ordered (low to high) their corresponding values must be non-decreasing.
• Models must provide the complete set of quantiles: c(0.01, 0.025, seq(0.05, 0.95, by = 0.05), 0.975, 0.99)
• For teams providing multiple models, only one model will be included in the ensemble. Teams are encouraged to indicate which model should be considered for inclusion in the ensemble. Otherwise, model developers will choose one to include.

May 4, 2020

• Models must be submitted by 6pm ET on Monday May 4. For this week only, we extended to about 9pm ET.
• Models must have a forecast_date from previous Friday (2020-05-01) through the current Monday.
• Models need to have all targets that we want to build an ensemble for: 1-4 wk ahead cum death.
• Models must pass the following two "plausibility checks":
  • the 10th quantile of the 1-week-ahead forecast must be above the last observed data for a given location.
  • when quantiles are ordered (low to high) their corresponding values must be non-decreasing.
• Models must provide the complete set of quantiles: c(0.01, 0.025, seq(0.05, 0.95, by = 0.05), 0.975, 0.99)